Global climate change has profound effects on species, especially those in habitats already altered by humans. Tropical ectotherms
are predicted to be at high risk from global temperature increases, particularly those adapted to cooler temperatures
at higher altitudes. We investigated how one such species, the water anole (Anolis aquaticus), is affected by temperature
stress similar to that of a warming climate across a gradient of human-altered habitats at high elevation sites. We conducted
a field survey on thermal traits and measured lizard critical thermal maxima across the sites. From the field survey, we found
that (1) lizards from the least disturbed site and (2) operative temperature models of lizards placed in the least disturbed
site had lower temperatures than those from sites with histories of human disturbance. Individuals from the least disturbed
site also demonstrated greater tolerance to high temperatures than those from the more disturbed sites, in both their critical
thermal maxima and the time spent at high temperatures prior to reaching critical thermal maxima. Our results demonstrate
within-species variability in responses to high temperatures, depending on habitat type, and provide insight into how tropical
reptiles may fare in a warming world.
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Predicting Pacific cod thermal spawning habitat in a changing climate
Warming temperatures elicit shifts in habitat use and geographic distributions of fishes, with uneven effects across life stages. Spawners and embryos often have narrower thermal tolerances than other life stages, and are thus particularly sensitive to warming. Here, we examine the spatiotemporal variability of thermal spawning habitat for Pacific cod in the eastern Bering Sea. Specifically, we use bottom temperatures from downscaled global climate models coupled with an experimentally-derived hatch success and temperature relationship to predict how the spatial extent, mean latitude, and consistency of thermal spawning habitat has varied over time. Predictions are validated with observations of spawning adults and early larvae. We find that habitat availability has not increased in the past but is predicted to increase and shift northward in the future, particularly if no climate change mitigation occurs. Habitat hotspots are consistent across shorter time periods but do shift across the shelf by the end of the century such that highly suitable areas in the past and present are not predicted to be suitable in the future. This work highlights the importance of coupling experimental data with climate models to identify the complex and mechanistic dynamics among temperature, life histories, and ecology, particularly under climate change.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2109411
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10529295
- Editor(s):
- Hidalgo, Manuel
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ICES Journal of Marine Science
- ISSN:
- 1054-3139
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Phenological shifts have been observed among marine species due to climate change. Modeling changes in fish spawning aggregations (FSAs) under climate change can be useful for adaptive management, because it can allow managers to adjust conservation strategies in the context of specific life history and phenological responses. We modeled effects of climate change on the distribution and phenology of Caribbean FSAs, examining 4 snapper and 4 grouper species. An ecological niche model was used to link FSAs with environmental conditions from remote sensing and project FSA distribution and seasonality under RCP8.5. We found significant differences between groupers and snappers in response to warming. While there was variation among species, groupers experienced slight delays in spawning season, a greater loss of suitable ocean habitat (average loss: 72.75%), and poleward shifts in FSA distribution. Snappers had larger shifts towards earlier phenology, with a smaller loss of suitable ocean habitat (average loss: 24.25%), excluding gray snapper, which gained habitat. Snappers exhibited interspecific variability in latitudinal distribution shifts. Snapper FSAs appeared more resilient to climate change and occupy wider and warmer spawning temperature ranges, while groupers prefer cooler spawning seasons. Consequently, groupers may lose more suitable ocean spawning habitat sooner due to climate change. When comparing species, there were trade-offs among climate change responses in terms of distribution shifts, phenology changes, and declines in habitat suitability. Understanding such trade-offs can help managers prioritize marine protected area locations and determine the optimal timing of seasonal fishing restrictions to protect FSAs vulnerable to fishing pressure in a changing climate.more » « less
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Abstract Aim Populations of cold‐adapted species at the trailing edges of geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change from the combination of exposure to warm temperatures and high sensitivity to heat. Many of these species are predicted to decline under future climate scenarios, but they could persist if they can adapt to warming climates either physiologically or behaviourally. We aim to understand local variation in contemporary habitat use and use this information to identify signs of adaptive capacity. We focus on moose (
Alces alces ), a charismatic species of conservation and public interest.Location The northeastern United States, along the trailing edge of the moose geographic range in North America.
Methods We compiled data on occurrences and habitat use of moose from remote cameras and GPS collars across the northeastern United States. We use these data to build habitat suitability models at local and regional spatial scales and then to predict future habitat suitability under climate change. We also use fine‐scale GPS data to model relationships between habitat use and temperature on a daily temporal scale and to predict future habitat use.
Results We find that habitat suitability for moose will decline under a range of climate change scenarios. However, moose across the region differ in their use of climatic and habitat space, indicating that they could exhibit adaptive capacity. We also find evidence for behavioural responses to weather, where moose increase their use of forested wetland habitats in warmer places and/or times.
Main conclusions Our results suggest that there will be significant shifts in moose distribution due to climate change. However, if there is spatial variation in thermal tolerance, trailing‐edge populations could adapt to climate change. We highlight that prioritizing certain habitats for conservation (i.e., thermal refuges) could be crucial for this adaptation.
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Abstract Impacts of increases in extreme heat events under climate change may differ across ontogeny for species with complex life cycles. Different life stages may (1) experience unequal levels of environmental stress that vary across space and time (exposure) and (2) have different stress tolerances (sensitivity). We used a field experiment to investigate whether exposure, sensitivity, and overall mortality risk differed between life stages of a marine foundation species (the mussel
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null (Ed.)The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector–pathogen pairs of mosquitoes ( Culex pipiens , Cx. quinquefascsiatus , Cx. tarsalis , and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23–26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24–25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad096
