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IntroductionForecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees (Yucca brevifoliaandY. jaegeriana, respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss. MethodsWe conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km2grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees. ResultsWhile the environments occupied byY. brevifoliaandY. jaegerianawere similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat forY. jaegerianaextends throughout the range ofY. brevifolia, while potential habitat forY. brevifoliais not well represented within the range ofY. jaegeriana. DiscussionBy reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.
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Reconstructing 120 years of climate change impacts on Joshua tree flowering
Abstract Quantifying how global change impacts wild populations remains challenging, especially for species poorly represented by systematic datasets. Here, we infer climate change effects on masting by Joshua trees (Yucca brevifoliaandY. jaegeriana), keystone perennials of the Mojave Desert, from 15 years of crowdsourced observations. We annotated phenophase in 10,212 geo‐referenced images of Joshua trees on the iNaturalist crowdsourcing platform, and used them to train machine learning models predicting flowering from annual weather records. Hindcasting to 1900 with a trained model successfully recovers flowering events in independent historical records and reveals a slightly rising frequency of conditions supporting flowering since the early 20th Century. This reflects increased variation in annual precipitation, which drives masting events in wet years—but also increasing temperatures and drought stress, which may have net negative impacts on recruitment. Our findings reaffirm the value of crowdsourcing for understanding climate change impacts on biodiversity.
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- PAR ID:
- 10529932
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology Letters
- Volume:
- 27
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 1461-023X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Summary Joshua trees are long‐lived perennial monocots native to the Mojave Desert in North America. Composed of two species,Yucca brevifoliaandY. jaegeriana(Asparagaceae), Joshua trees are imperiled by climate change, with decreases in suitable habitat predicted under future climate change scenarios. Relatively little is understood about the ecophysiology of Joshua trees across their range, including the extent to which populations are locally adapted or phenotypically plastic to environmental stress.Plants in our common gardens showed evidence of Crassulacean acid metabolism photosynthesis (CAM) in a pilot experiment, despite no prior report of this photosynthetic pathway in these species. We further studied the variation and strength of CAM within a single common garden, measuring seedlings representing populations across the range of the two species.A combination of physiology and transcriptomic data showed low levels of CAM that varied across populations but were unrelated to home environmental conditions. Gene expression confirmed CAM activity and further suggested differences in carbon and nitrogen metabolism betweenY. brevifoliaandY. jaegeriana.Together the results suggest greater physiological diversity between these species than initially expected, particularly at the seedling stage, with implications for future survival of Joshua trees under a warming climate.more » « less
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Abstract Synchronous pulses of seed masting and natural disturbance have positive feedbacks on the reproduction of masting species in disturbance‐prone ecosystems. We test the hypotheses that disturbances and proximate causes of masting are correlated, and that their large‐scale synchrony is driven by similar climate teleconnection patterns at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales.Hypotheses were tested on white spruce (Picea glauca), a masting species which surprisingly persists in fire‐prone boreal forests while lacking clear fire adaptations. We built masting, drought and fire indices at regional (Alaska, Yukon, Alberta, Quebec) and sub‐continental scales (western North America) spanning the second half of the 20th century. Superposed Epoch Analysis tested the temporal associations between masting events, drought and burnt area at the regional scale. At the sub‐continental scale, Superposed Epoch Analysis tested whether El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its coupled effects with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the positive phase (AMO+/ENSO+) synchronize drought, burnt area and masting. We additionally tested the consistency of our synchronization hypotheses on a decadal temporal scale to verify whether long‐term oscillations in AMO+/ENSO+ are coherent to decadal variation in drought, burnt area and masting.Analyses demonstrated synchronicity between drought, fire and masting. In all regions the year before a mast event was drier and more fire‐prone than usual. During AMO+/ENSO+ events sub‐continental indices of drought and burnt area experienced significant departures from mean values. The same was observed for large‐scale masting in the subsequent year, confirming 1‐year lag between fire and masting. Sub‐continental indices of burnt area and masting showed in‐phase decadal fluctuations led by the AMO+/ENSO+. Results support the ‘Environmental prediction hypothesis’ for mast seeding.Synthesis. We provide evidence of large‐scale synchronicity between seed masting inPicea glaucaand fire regimes in boreal forests of western North America at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales. We conclude that seed production in white spruce predicts changes in disturbance regimes by sharing the same large‐scale climate drivers with drought and fire. This gives new insides in a mechanism providing a fire‐sensitive species with higher than expected adaptability to changes in climate.more » « less
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