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Abstract Synthetic ensemble forecasts are an important tool for testing the robustness of forecast‐informed reservoir operations (FIRO). These forecasts are statistically generated to mimic the skill of hindcasts derived from operational ensemble forecasting systems, but they can be created for time periods when hindcast data are unavailable, allowing for a more comprehensive evaluation of FIRO policies. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how to determine whether a candidate synthetic ensemble forecasting approach is sufficiently representative of its real‐world counterpart to support FIRO policy evaluation. This highlights a need for formalfit‐for‐purposevalidation frameworks to advance synthetic forecasting as a generalizable risk analysis strategy. We address this research gap by first introducing a novel operations‐based validation framework, where reservoir storage and release simulations under a FIRO policy are compared when forced with a single ensemble hindcast and many different synthetic ensembles. We evaluate the suitability of synthetic forecasts based on formal probabilistic verification of the operational outcomes. Second, we develop a new synthetic ensemble forecasting algorithm and compare it to a previous algorithm using this validation framework across a set of stylized, hydrologically diverse reservoir systems in California. Results reveal clear differences in operational suitability, with the new method consistently outperforming the previous one. These findings demonstrate the promise of the newer synthetic forecasting approach as a generalizable tool for FIRO policy evaluation and robustness testing. They also underscore the value of the proposed validation framework in benchmarking and guiding future improvements in synthetic forecast development.
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Synthetic Forecast Ensembles for Evaluating Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations
Abstract Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is an important advance in water management, but the design and testing of FIRO policies is limited by relatively short (10–35 year) hydro‐meteorological hindcasts. We present a novel, multisite model for synthetic forecast ensembles to overcome this limitation. This model utilizes parametric and non‐parametric procedures to capture complex forecast errors and maintain correlation between variables, lead times, locations, and ensemble members. After being fit to data from the hindcast period, this model can generate synthetic forecast ensembles in any period with observations. We demonstrate the approach in a case study of the FIRO‐based Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) control policy for the Lake Mendocino—Russian River basin, which conditions release decisions on ensemble forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). We explore two generation strategies: (a) simulation of synthetic forecasts of meteorology to force HEFS; and (b) simulation of synthetic HEFS streamflow forecasts directly. We evaluate the synthetic forecasts using ensemble verification techniques and event‐based validation, finding good agreement with the actual ensemble forecasts. We then evaluate EFO policy performance using synthetic and actual forecasts over the hindcast period (1985–2010) and synthetic forecasts only over the pre‐hindcast period (1948–1984). Results show that the synthetic forecasts highlight important failure modes of the EFO policy under plausible forecast ensembles, but improvements are still needed to fully capture FIRO policy behavior under the actual forecast ensembles. Overall, the methodology advances a novel way to test FIRO policy robustness, which is key to building institutional support for FIRO.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2205239
- PAR ID:
- 10530480
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Geophysical Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Volume:
- 60
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0043-1397
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034898
