Solar flare prediction studies have been recently conducted with the use of Space-Weather MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager on board Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) Active Region Patches (SMARPs) and Space-Weather HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board Solar Dynamics Observatory) Active Region Patches (SHARPs), which are two currently available data products containing magnetic field characteristics of solar active regions (ARs). The present work is an effort to combine them into one data product, and perform some initial statistical analyses in order to further expand their application in space-weather forecasting. The combined data are derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP and SHARP parameters, which can then be spatially reduced to create uniform multivariate time series. The resulting combined MDI–HMI data set currently spans the period between 1996 April 4 and 2022 December 13, and may be extended to a more recent date. This provides an opportunity to correlate and compare it with other space-weather time series, such as the daily solar flare index or the statistical properties of the soft X-ray flux measured by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. Time-lagged cross correlation indicates that a relationship may exist, where some magnetic field properties of ARs lead the flare index in time. Applying the rolling-window technique makes it possible to see how this leader–follower dynamic varies with time. Preliminary results indicate that areas of high correlation generally correspond to increased flare activity during the peak solar cycle.
This content will become publicly available on April 1, 2025
To address Objective II of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan “Develop and Disseminate Accurate and Timely Space Weather Characterization and Forecasts” and US Congress PROSWIFT Act 116–181, our team is developing a new set of open-source software that would ensure substantial improvements of Space Weather (SWx) predictions. On the one hand, our focus is on the development of data-driven solar wind models. On the other hand, each individual component of our software is designed to have accuracy higher than any existing SWx prediction tools with a dramatically improved performance. This is done by the application of new computational technologies and enhanced data sources. The development of such software paves way for improved SWx predictions accompanied with an appropriate uncertainty quantification. This makes it possible to forecast hazardous SWx effects on the space-borne and ground-based technological systems, and on human health. Our models include (1) a new, open-source solar magnetic flux model (OFT), which evolves information to the back side of the Sun and its poles, and updates the model flux with new observations using data assimilation methods; (2) a new potential field solver (POT3D) associated with the Wang–Sheeley–Arge coronal model, and (3) a new adaptive, 4-th order of accuracy solver (HelioCubed) for the Reynolds-averaged MHD equations implemented on mapped multiblock grids (cubed spheres). We describe the software and results obtained with it, including the application of machine learning to modeling coronal mass ejections, which makes it possible to improve SWx predictions by decreasing the time-of-arrival mismatch. The tests show that our software is formally more accurate and performs much faster than its predecessors used for SWx predictions.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2028154
- PAR ID:
- 10536185
- Publisher / Repository:
- Institute of Physics
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Physics: Conference Series
- Volume:
- 2742
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1742-6588
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 012013
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Abstract -
This perspective article discusses the knowledge gaps and open questions regarding the solar and interplanetary drivers of space weather conditions experienced at Mars during active and quiescent solar periods, and the need for continuous, routine observations to address them. For both advancing science and as part of the strategic planning for human exploration at Mars by the late 2030s, now is the time to consider a network of upstream space weather monitors at Mars. Our main recommendations for the heliophysics community are the following: 1. Support the advancement for understanding heliophysics and space weather science at ∼1.5 AU and continue the support of planetary science payloads and missions that provide such measurements. 2. Prioritize an upstream Mars L1 monitor and/or areostationary orbiters for providing dedicated, continuous observations of solar activity and interplanetary conditions at ∼1.5 AU. 3. Establish new or support existing 1) joint efforts between federal agencies and their divisions and 2) international collaborations to carry out #1 and #2.more » « less
-
Owing to the ever-present solar wind, our vast solar system is full of plasmas. The turbulent solar wind, together with sporadic solar eruptions, introduces various space plasma processes and phenomena in the solar atmosphere all the way to the Earth's ionosphere and atmosphere and outward to interact with the interstellar media to form the heliopause and termination shock. Remarkable progress has been made in space plasma physics in the last 65 years, mainly due to sophisticated in-situ measurements of plasmas, plasma waves, neutral particles, energetic particles, and dust via space-borne satellite instrumentation. Additionally high technology ground-based instrumentation has led to new and greater knowledge of solar and auroral features. As a result, a new branch of space physics, i.e., space weather, has emerged since many of the space physics processes have a direct or indirect influence on humankind. After briefly reviewing the major space physics discoveries before rockets and satellites, we aim to review all our updated understanding on coronal holes, solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which are central to space weather events at Earth, solar wind, storms and substorms, magnetotail and substorms, emphasizing the role of the magnetotail in substorm dynamics, radiation belts/energetic magnetospheric particles, structures and space weather dynamics in the ionosphere, plasma waves, instabilities, and wave-particle interactions, long-period geomagnetic pulsations, auroras, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), planetary magnetospheres and solar/stellar wind interactions with comets, moons and asteroids, interplanetary discontinuities, shocks and waves, interplanetary dust, space dusty plasmas and solar energetic particles and shocks, including the heliospheric termination shock. This paper is aimed to provide a panoramic view of space physics and space weather.more » « less
-
Aims : This paper presents a H2020 project aimed at developing an advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) evolution modelling with solar energetic particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods : We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely (1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and (2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along and across the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (VSWMC, ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Ukkel (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results : The results of the first six months of the EU H2020 project are presented here. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.more » « less
-
The NASA-NSF sponsored Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainty (SWQU) project's main objective is to develop a data-driven, time-dependent, open source model of the solar corona and heliosphere. One key component of the SWQU effort is using a data-assimilation flux transport model to generate an ensemble of synchronic radial magnetic field maps as boundary conditions for the coronal field model. To accomplish this goal, we are developing a new Open-source Flux Transport (OFT) software suite. While there are a number of established flux transport models in the community, OFT is distinguished from many of these efforts in 3 key attributes: (1) It is based on modern computing techniques that will allow many realizations to be rapidly computed on multi-core systems and/or GPUs, (2) it is designed to be easily extensible, and (3) OFT will be released as an open source project. OFT consists of three software packages: 1) OFTpy: a python package for data acquisition, database organization, and Carrington map processing, 2) ConFlow: a Fortran code that generates super granular convective flows, and 3) High-Performance Flux Transport (HipFT): a modular, GPU-accelerated Fortran code for modeling surface flux transport with data assimilation. Here, we present the current state of the OFT project, key features and methods of OFTpy, ConFlow, and HipFt, and real-world examples of data-assimilation and flux transport with HipFT. Validation and performance tests are shown, including generating an ensemble of OFT maps.more » « less