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Abstract Infrasound may be used to detect the approach of hazardous volcanic mudflows, known as lahars, tens of minutes before their flow fronts arrive. We have analyzed signals from more than 20 secondary lahars caused by precipitation events at Fuego Volcano during Guatemala’s rainy season in May through October of 2022. We are able to quantify the capabilities of infrasound monitoring through comparison with seismic data, time lapse camera imagery, and high-resolution video of a well-recorded event on August 17. We determine that infrasound sensors, deployed adjacent to the lahar path and in small-aperture (10 s of meters) arrays, are particularly sensitive to remote detection of lahars, including small-sized events, at distances of at least 5 km. At Fuego Volcano these detections could be used to provide timely alerts of up to 30 min before lahars arrive at a downstream monitoring site, such as in the frequently impacted Ceniza drainage. We propose that continuous infrasound monitoring, from locations adjacent to a drainage, may complement seismic monitoring and serve as a valuable tool to help identify approaching hazards. On the other hand, infrasound arrays located a kilometer or more from the lahar path can be effectively used to track a lahar’s progression.
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Dynamics of rain-triggered lahars and destructive power inferred from seismo-acoustic arrays and time-lapse camera correlation at Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala
Abstract Lahars, or volcanic mudflows, are one of the most devastating natural, volcanic hazards. Deadly lahars, such as the one that occurred after the Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia eruption in 1985, in which at least 23,000 people tragically lost their lives, threaten the safety and well-being of humans, the economy, and the infrastructure of many of the communities living in the vicinity of volcanoes. Due to their complex flow behaviors, lahars remain a major challenge to those studying them. We present an analysis of several rain-triggered lahar events at Volcán Fuego in Guatemala using both seismic and infrasound monitoring to quantify both ground vibrations and low-frequency atmospheric sound waves associated with these mudflows. Geophysical data collected over this field campaign quantifies flow parameters such as velocities, stage and the frequency of these rain-triggered lahars. Time-lapse imagery of lahar flows is compared with filtered seismo-acoustic signal characteristics to ascertain stage predictions and relationship to stage fluxes. Using random forest regression models, we establish moderate correlations (correlation coefficient modes 0.48–0.53) with statistical significance (pvalue = 0.01–0.02) between signal energetics and respective stage. Compiling a catalog of rain-triggered lahar events in Volcán de Fuego’s drainages over a season permits a dataset amenable to statistical analysis. Our goal is the development of new-generation geophysical monitoring tools that will be capable of remote and real-time estimation of flow parameters.
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- PAR ID:
- 10544651
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Science + Business Media
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Natural Hazards
- Volume:
- 121
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0921-030X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 3431-3472
- Size(s):
- p. 3431-3472
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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