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1. Global Methane Budget 2000–2020

   https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115  

   Saunois, Marielle; Martinez, Adrien; Poulter, Benjamin; Zhang, Zhen; Raymond, Peter; Regnier, Pierre; Canadell, Joseph G; Jackson, Robert B; Patra, Prabir K; Bousquet, Philippe; et al (June 2024, Copernicus)

   Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, maintaining CH4 as the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the factors explaining the well-observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise and update the global CH4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH4 emission estimates (based on in-situ and greenhouse gas observing satellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land-surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full datasets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better accounting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double accounting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double accounting that still exists (average of 23 Tg CH4 yr-1). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH4 yr-1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH4 yr-1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH4 yr-1 or ~65 % are attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH4 yr-1 or 63–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH4 yr-1 (range 9–40). Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH4 yr-1) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH4 yr-1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), respectively), and for the first time uncertainty in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. The latitudinal distribution from atmospheric inversion-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical and southern hemisphere emissions (~65 % of the global budget, <30° N) compared to mid (30° N–60° N, ~30 % of emissions) and high-northern latitudes (60° N–90° N, ~4 % of global emissions). This latitudinal distribution is similar in the bottom-up budget though the bottom-up budget estimates slightly larger contributions for the mid and high-northern latitudes, and slightly smaller contributions from the tropics and southern hemisphere than the inversions. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH4 budget: i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; iii) intensification of CH4 observations at local (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions, and v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture and landfills) to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GKQ9-2RHT (Martinez et al., 2024). 

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2. The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

   https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020  

   Saunois, Marielle; Stavert, Ann R; Poulter, Ben; Bousquet, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G; Jackson, Robert B; Raymond, Peter A; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Houweling, Sander; Patra, Prabir K; et al (January 2020, Earth System Science Data)

   Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budgetis important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change.Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase,making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas interms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relativeimportance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorteratmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations inatmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are stilldebated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmosphericgrowth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxylradicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established aconsortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the GlobalCarbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improvingand regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paperdedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-downstudies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modellingframework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models forestimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories ofanthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated byatmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximumestimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that isemissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009),and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previousbudget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881)than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for naturalsources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geologicalsources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints onthe top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissionsare overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmosphericobservation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions(∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N)compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N)and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methanebudget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlandsand other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previouslypublished budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due toimproved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions fromgeological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overalldiscrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced byonly 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methanebudget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soilsand inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification ofdifferent types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development ofprocess-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification ofmethane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements)and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, andat regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrainatmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and therepresentation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/orco-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded fromhttps://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-CH4-2019 (Saunois et al., 2020) and from theGlobal Carbon Project. 

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3. Amazon methane budget derived from multi-year airborne observations highlights regional variations in emissions

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00314-4  

   Basso, L.S.; Marani, L.; Gatti, L.V.; Miller, J.B.; Gloor, M.; Melack, J.; Cassol, H.L.G.; Tejada, G.; Domingues, L.G.; Arai, E.; et al (January 2021, Communications earth environment)

   Atmospheric methane levels were nearly steady between 1999 and 2006, but have been rising since then. Increases in wetland emissions, the largest natural global CH4 source, may be partly responsible. Tropical regions like Amazonia, host some of the largest wetlands on Earth, but there are few in-situ observations, which allow large-scale flux estimation. To improve estimates of its contribution to the global CH4 budget we measured 590 lower-troposphere methane concentrations vertical profiles at four Amazonian sites between 2010 and 2018. We estimate that Amazonia emits 46.2±10.3 TgCH4 y-1 (~8% of global emissions) with no emission trend. Non-fire sources (mainly wetlands) dominate emissions, with a smaller biomass burning contribution (~17%). We find a distinct east-west contrast with an emission peak in the northeast. Furthermore, while northwest-central Amazon emissions are nearly aseasonal, consistent with weak precipitation seasonality, southern emissions are strongly seasonal synchronously with equivalent water thickness seasonality. 

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4. Evidence for multi-decadal fuel buildup in a large California wildfire from smoke radiocarbon measurements

   https://doi.org/10.7280/D1498P  

   Odwuor, Audrey; Moreno, Alondra; Yañez, Cindy Y; Hopkins, Francesca M; Czimczik, Claudia I; Randerson, James T; Xu, Xiaomei (June 2023, Dryad)

   Over the past several decades, the annual burned area in California's Sierra Nevada mountains has increased considerably, with significant social, economic, and ecosystem impacts that provide motivation for understanding how the history of forest management influences the composition of fuels and emissions in wildfires. Here, we measured the carbon concentration and radiocarbon abundance (∆14C) of fire-emitted particulate matter from the KNP Complex Fire, which burned through several groves of giant sequoia trees in the southern Sierra Nevada mountains during California’s 2021 wildfire season. Over a 26-hour sampling period, we measured the concentration of fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) along with carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) dry air mole fractions using a ground-based mobile laboratory. Filter samples of PM2.5 were also collected and later analyzed for carbon concentration and ∆14C. Covariation of PM2.5, CO, and CH4 time series data confirmed that our PM2.5 samples were representative of wildfire emissions. Using a Keeling plot approach, we estimated that the mean ∆14C of PM2.5 was 111.5 ± 2.3‰ (n=12), which is considerably enriched relative to that of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the northern hemisphere in 2021 (-3.4 ± 1.4‰). By combining these ∆14C data with a steady-state one-box ecosystem model, we estimated that the mean age of fuels combusted in the KNP Complex Fire was 40 ± 6 years. This multi-decadal fuel age provides evidence for emissions from woody biomass, coarse woody debris, and larger-diameter fine fuels. The combustion of these larger-size fuel classes is consistent with independent field observations that indicate high fire intensity contributed to widespread giant sequoia mortality. With the expanded use of prescribed fires planned over the next decade in California to mitigate impacts of wildfires, our measurement approach has the potential to provide regionally-integrated estimates of the effectiveness of fuel treatment programs. 

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5. Effect of moisture content on CO2 sequestration by BOF slag in landfill cover

   https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784482148.016  

   Chetri, Jyoti K.; Reddy, Krishna R.; Grubb, Dennis G. (March 2019, Proc. GeoCongress2019-Eighth International Conference on Case Histories in Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE)

   Among many anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), landfill emissions, consisting of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), are one of the major contributors of anthropogenic GHG. In recent years, various innovative landfill biocovers have been investigated and developed to mitigate the emissions of methane (CH4) from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. However, the problem of CO2 emissions [which constitute about 40% of landfill gas (LFG)] from MSW landfills still remains unresolved. An innovative cover system which consists of basic oxygen furnace (BOF) slag with biochar amended soil is being developed to mitigate CH4 and CO2 emissions from landfills. The biochar amended soil is effective in mitigating CH4 emissions by microbial methane oxidation, while BOF slag could be effective in sequestering CO2 emissions by carbonation mechanisms. However, the properties of BOF slag vary based on several factors such as mineralogical composition of slag, particle size, moisture content, and temperature. In this study, CO2 sequestration potential of BOF slag was evaluated under synthetic LFG condition. The performance of the BOF slag in sequestering CO2 under different moisture condition was also examined. The results showed that BOF slag can sequester substantial amount of CO2 under LFG condition. The study also enlightened the importance of moisture for initiating carbonation reaction; however, the moisture alone was not the controlling parameter for CO2 sequestration. The mineralogy of the BOF slag plays an important role in determining CO2 sequestration capacity of the slag. 

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