An official website of the United States government
A key challenge in the design of effective anti-poverty programs is determining who should be eligible for program benefits. In devel- oping countries, one of the most common criteria is a Proxy Means Test — a simple decision rule that determines eligibility based on basic information about each household (for example, the number of rooms in the household, the number of children, whether there is indoor plumbing, and other observable characteristics) [1, 3, 4, 7]. At the core of each Proxy Means Test (PMT) is a machine learning algorithm that uses the short list of household characteristics to pre- dict whether the household should be deemed poor, and therefore eligible, or non-poor, and therefore ineligible [5, 6].
more »
« less
Coupling data science with community crowdsourcing for urban renewal policy analysis: An evaluation of Atlanta’s Anti-Displacement Tax Fund
We estimate the cost and impact of a proposed anti-displacement program in the Westside of Atlanta (GA) with data science and machine learning techniques. This program intends to fully subsidize property tax increases for eligible residents of neighborhoods where there are two major urban renewal projects underway, a stadium and a multi-use trail. We first estimate household-level income eligibility for the program with data science and machine learning approaches applied to publicly available household-level data. We then forecast future property appreciation due to urban renewal projects using random forests with historic tax assessment data. Combining these projections with household-level eligibility, we estimate the costs of the program for different eligibility scenarios. We find that our household-level data and machine learning techniques result in fewer eligible homeowners but significantly larger program costs, due to higher property appreciation rates than the original analysis, which was based on census and city-level data. Our methods have limitations, namely incomplete data sets, the accuracy of representative income samples, the availability of characteristic training set data for the property tax appreciation model, and challenges in validating the model results. The eligibility estimates and property appreciation forecasts we generated were also incorporated into an interactive tool for residents to determine program eligibility and view their expected increases in home values. Community residents have been involved with this work and provided greater transparency, accountability, and impact of the proposed program. Data collected from residents can also correct and update the information, which would increase the accuracy of the program estimates and validate the modeling, leading to a novel application of community-driven data science.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1659757
- PAR ID:
- 10547126
- Publisher / Repository:
- SAGE Publications
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science
- Volume:
- 47
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2399-8083
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 1081-1097
- Size(s):
- p. 1081-1097
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Wage insurance provides income support to displaced workers who find reemployment at a lower wage. We study the effects of the wage insurance provisions of the US Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program using administrative data from the state of Virginia. The program includes an age-based eligibility cutoff, allowing us to compare earnings and employment trajectories for workers whose ages at the time of displacement make them eligible or ineligible for the program. Our findings suggest that wage insurance eligibility increases short-run employment probabilities and that wage insurance and TAA training may yield similar long-run effects on employment and earnings.more » « less
-
Abstract We use administrative data from the Internal Revenue Service to examine long-term impacts of childhood Medicaid eligibility expansions on outcomes in adulthood at each age from 19 to 28. Greater Medicaid eligibility increases college enrolment and decreases fertility, especially through age 21. Starting at age 23, females have higher contemporaneous wage income, although male increases are imprecise. Together, both genders have lower mortality. These adults collect less from the earned income tax credit and pay more in taxes. Cumulatively from ages 19 to 28, at a 3% discount rate, the federal government recoups 58 cents of each dollar of its “investment” in childhood Medicaid.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)The actions of residents in the wildland–urban interface can influence the private and social costs of wildfire. Wildfire programs that encourage residents to take action are often delivered without evidence of effects on behavior. Research from the field of behavioral science shows that simple, often low-cost changes to program design and delivery can influence socially desirable behaviors. In this research report, we highlight how behavioral science and experimental design may advance efforts to increase wildfire risk mitigation on private property. We offer an example in which we tested changes in outreach messaging on property owners’ interest in wildfire risk information. In partnership with a regional wildfire organization, we mailed 4564 letters directing property owners to visit personalized wildfire risk webpages. By tracking visitation, we observed that 590 letter recipients (12%) sought information about their wildfire risk and response varied by community. This research–practice collaboration has three benefits: innovation in outreach, evidence of innovation through experimental design, and real impacts on interest in wildfire mitigation among property owners. Future collaborations may inform behavioral and evidence-based programs to better serve residents and the public interest as the risks from wildfires are projected to grow.more » « less
-
We compare two approaches to increasing tax revenue: tax administration and tax rates. We show that when Indonesia moved top regional firms into “medium taxpayer offices,” with high staff-to-taxpayer ratios, tax revenue more than doubled. Examining nonlinear changes to corporate income tax rates, we estimate an elasticity of taxable income of 0.579. Combining these estimates, improved tax administration is equivalent to raising top rates on all firms by 8 percentage points. On net, improved tax administration can have significant returns for developing countries. (JEL H25, H26, K34, O17)more » « less
