Abstract. River deltas are sites of sediment accumulation along thecoastline that form critical biological habitats, host megacities, andcontain significant quantities of hydrocarbons. Despite their importance, wedo not know which factors most significantly promote sediment accumulationand dominate delta formation. To investigate this issue, we present a globaldataset of 5399 coastal rivers and data on eight environmental variables.Of these rivers, 40 % (n=2174) have geomorphic deltas defined eitherby a protrusion from the regional shoreline, a distributary channel network,or both. Globally, coastlines average one delta forevery ∼300 km of shoreline, but there are hotspots of delta formation, for examplein Southeast Asia where there is one delta per 100 km of shoreline. Ouranalysis shows that the likelihood of a river to form a delta increases withincreasing water discharge, sediment discharge, and drainage basin area. Onthe other hand, delta likelihood decreases with increasing wave height andtidal range. Delta likelihood has a non-monotonic relationship withreceiving-basin slope: it decreases with steeper slopes, but for slopes >0.006 delta likelihood increases. This reflects differentcontrols on delta formation on active versus passive margins. Sedimentconcentration and recent sea level change do not affect delta likelihood. Alogistic regression shows that water discharge, sediment discharge, waveheight, and tidal range are most important for delta formation. The logisticregression correctly predicts delta formation 74 % of the time. Our globalanalysis illustrates that delta formation and morphology represent a balancebetween constructive and destructive forces, and this framework may helppredict tipping points at which deltas rapidly shift morphologies.
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This content will become publicly available on September 1, 2025
Effects of Sea Ice on Arctic Delta Evolution: A Modeling Study of the Colville River Delta, Alaska
Seasonal sea ice impacts Arctic delta morphology by limiting wave and river influences and altering river‐to‐ocean sediment pathways. However, the long‐term effects of sea ice on delta morphology remain poorly known. To address this gap, 1D morphologic and hydrodynamic simulations were set up in Delft3D to study the 1500‐year development of Arctic deltas during the most energetic Arctic seasons: spring break‐up/freshet, summer open‐water, and autumn freeze‐up. The model focused on the deltaic clinoform (i.e., the vertical cross‐sectional view of a delta) and used a floating barge structure to mimic the effects of sea ice on nearshore waters. From the simulations we find that ice‐affected deltas form a compound clinoform morphology, that is, a coupled subaerial and subaqueous delta separated by a subaqueous platform that resembles the shallow platform observed offshore of Arctic deltas. Nearshore sea ice affects river dynamics and promotes sediment bypassing during sea ice break‐up, forming an offshore depocenter and building a subaqueous platform. A second depocenter forms closer to shore during the open‐water season at the subaerial foreset that aids in outbuilding the subaerial delta and assists in developing the compound clinoform morphology. Simulations of increased wave activity and reduced sea‐ice, likely futures under a warming Arctic climate, show that deltas may lose their shallow platform on centennial timescales by (a) sediment infill and/or (b) wave erosion. This study highlights the importance of sea ice on Arctic delta morphology and the potential morphologic transitions these high‐latitude deltas may experience as the Arctic continues to warm.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2322276
- PAR ID:
- 10549016
- Publisher / Repository:
- JGR Earth Surface
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
- Volume:
- 129
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2169-9003
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract We present a novel quantitative test of a 50‐year‐old hypothesis which asserts that river delta morphology is determined by the balance between river and marine influence. We define three metrics to capture the first‐order morphology of deltas (shoreline roughness, number of distributary channel mouths, and presence/absence of spits), and use a recently developed sediment flux framework to quantify the river‐marine influence. Through analysis of simulated and field deltas we quantitatively demonstrate the relationship between sediment flux balance and delta morphology and show that the flux balance accounts for at least 35% of the variance in the number of distributary channel mouths and 42% of the variance in the shoreline roughness for real‐world and simulated deltas. We identify a tipping point in the flux balance where wave influence halts distributary channel formation and show how this explains morphological transitions in real world deltas.
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Abstract Wax Lake Delta, southern Louisiana, is a coastal delta that formed following the dredging of a river channel in 1941 and is a field model for investigating the geomorphology, ecology, carbon dynamics, and carbon storage capacity in young prograding deltas. However, it is unknown how the transition from subaqueous to subaerial sediments affects the sources and quality of the sequestered carbon. We investigated these variations within the sediments of Wax Lake Delta using amino acid, lignin, and stable carbon isotope compositions of the organic matter (OM). A principal component analysis of these proxies highlighted variability in organic carbon (OC) composition with changes in elevation. The transition from subaqueous to subaerial sediments at 0‐cm mean lower low water is an important component of the OM composition. In addition to the changes observed for OM source and quality, the OC loadings (OC/SA; mg C/m2) also increase as the delta aggrades and accumulates sediments with loadings typical of delta topsets and mobile mud banks (OC/SA < 0.4) to riverine sediments (0.5 < OC/SA < 1) and eventually to highly productive regions (OC/SA > 1). Linking this multiproxy approach with environmental variables such as elevation provides a path for incorporating OM dynamics into geomorphic models.
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Abstract Lowland deltas experience natural diversions in river course known as avulsions. River avulsions pose catastrophic flood hazards and redistribute sediment that is vital for sustaining land in the face of sea‐level rise. Avulsions also affect deltaic stratigraphic architecture and the preservation of sea‐level cycles in the sedimentary record. Here, we present results from an experimental lowland delta with persistent backwater effects and systematic changes in the rates of sea‐level rise and fall. River avulsions repeatedly occurred where and when the river aggraded to a height of nearly half the channel depth, giving rise to a preferential avulsion node within the backwater zone regardless of sea‐level change. As sea‐level rise accelerated, the river responded by avulsing more frequently until reaching a maximum frequency limited by the upstream sediment supply. Experimental results support recent models, field observations, and experiments, and suggest anthropogenic sea‐level rise will introduce more frequent avulsion hazards farther inland than observed in recent history. The experiment also demonstrated that avulsions can occur during sea‐level fall—even within the confines of an incised valley—provided the offshore basin is shallow enough to allow the shoreline to prograde and the river to aggrade. Avulsions create erosional surfaces within stratigraphy that bound beds reflecting the amount of deposition between avulsions. Avulsion‐induced scours overprint erosional surfaces from sea‐level fall, except when the cumulative drop in sea‐level is greater than the channel depth and less than the basin depth. Results imply sea‐level signals outside this range are removed or distorted in delta deposits.
