An official website of the United States government
This study analyzes 488 household residents’ responses to the 2018 Indonesia M7.5 earthquake and tsunami. Comparison of this event with past earthquake and tsunami events, such as the 2009 Samoa (M8.1), 2011 Christchurch (M6.3), and 2011 Tohoku (M9.0) events, identifies commonalities and differences among people’s responses to these events. The results show that many Palu respondents failed to recognize strong earthquake ground motion as an environmental cue to a tsunami, but this was partially offset by an informal peer warning network. Most of the warnings only mentioned one of the six recommended message elements—the tsunami hazard. However, this brief message might have been adequate for many people if they could infer the certainty, severity, and immediacy of the threat, and appropriate evacuation modes, routes, and destinations. Unlike two comparison cases, some Palu respondents actually began their evacuation later than they expected the tsunami to strike. This might be due to spending too much time milling (seeking additional information, relaying warnings, reuniting families, and preparing to evacuate)—given the tsunami’s extremely rapid onset. This finding underscores the need for coastal emergency managers to promote evacuation preparedness for near-field tsunamis in which households pack Grab and Go kits in advance, warn others while evacuating, and plan in advance where to reunite household members who must evacuate separately.
more »
« less
Lessons Learned From the 2018 Attica Wildfire: Households’ Expectations of Evacuation Logistics and Evacuation Time Estimate Components
Despite the increase in frequency and intensity of wildfires around the world, little research has examined households’ expectations of evacuation logistics and evacuation time estimate (ETE) components during such rapid-onset disasters. To address this gap, this study analyzes data from 152 household responses affected by the devastating 2018 wildfire in Mati, Greece where the second-deadliest wildfire of the 21st century took place. The questionnaire measured residents’ expectations of how they would respond to a future wildfire. This includes the number of vehicles they would take, their evacuation destination and route choices, and their expected evacuation preparation and travel times. Explanatory variables include risk perceptions, wildfire preparedness, wildfire experience, and demographic characteristics. The univariate results reveal some similarities to, but also some differences from, expected evacuation logistics and ETE components in other natural hazards. Moreover, correlation and regression analyses show that expected evacuation logistics and ETE components are primarily related to wildfire preparedness actions. Comparison of this study’s results with other rapid onset events such as tsunamis and hazardous material incidents, as well as longer onset events such as hurricanes, sheds light on household responses to wildfires. Emergency managers can use the similarities in results across studies to better prepare for wildfire evacuations.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10550364
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Fire Technology
- ISSN:
- 0015-2684
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Many coastal communities around the world are threatened by a near-field (or local) tsunami that could inundate the low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. The universal consensus amongst emergency agencies and academic researchers is that a safe evacuation requires an effective response, which is typically assessed by the evacuation time estimate (ETE). ETE is an integral component of community emergency evacuation planning, especially areas prone to tsunamis. This paper aims to investigate the ETE for pedestrian evacuation during a tsunami through two different approaches: (1) the deterministic Least-Cost Distance (LCD) model; and (2) the dynamic Agent-Based Model (ABM). Then, the comparison of the two models in their intrinsic characteristics, strengths and weaknesses, and its applicability was discussed based on methodology behind of the LCD model and ABM. The LCD model was conducted to generate a spatially distributed ETE map, visualizing vulnerable areas where the evacuation time would be insufficient for individuals to reach safety. The ABM investigated uncertainty during tsunami evacuations, such as population distribution, walking speed, and milling time. This paper provides insights into the differences between the LCD model and ABM in terms of methodology and application. It assists the academic researchers and emergency managers, evacuation planners, and decision makers to choose an appropriate method for modeling pedestrian evacuation during tsunami.more » « less
-
This paper presents the use of tsunami evacuation drills within a coastal community in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) to better understand evacuation behaviors and thus to improve tsunami evacuation preparedness and resilience. Evacuees’ spatial trajectory data were collected by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) embedded in mobile devices. Based on the empirical trajectory data, probability functions were employed to model people’s walking speed during the evacuation drills. An Evacuation Hiking Function (EHF) was established to depict the speed–slope relationship and to inform evacuation modeling and planning. The regression analysis showed that evacuees’ speed was significantly negatively associated with slope, time spent during evacuation, rough terrain surface, walking at night, and distance to destination. We also demonstrated the impacts of milling time on mortality rate based on participants’ empirical evacuation behaviors and a state-of-the-art CSZ tsunami inundation model. Post-drill surveys revealed the importance of the drill as an educational and assessment tool. The results of this study can be used for public education, evacuation plan assessment, and evacuation simulation models. The drill procedures, designs, and the use of technology in data collection provide evidence-driven solutions to tsunami preparedness and inspire the use of drills in other types of natural disasters such as wildfires, hurricanes, volcanoes, and flooding.more » « less
-
We analyzed data from a survey administered to 1,212 respondents living in superstorm Hurricane Sandy-affected areas. We estimated the effect of having experienced hurricane-induced disruptions to utility services, such as electricity, water, gas, phone service, and public transportation, on having an evacuation plan. Around 39% of respondents reported having an evacuation plan in case a hurricane affects their neighborhood this year. Respondents who had experienced disruptions to electricity supply had an approximately 11 percentage-point higher likelihood of having an evacuation plan than those who had experienced no such disruptions. Respondents who had experienced monetary losses from Hurricane Sandy had around a five percentage-point higher likelihood of having an evacuation plan compared with those who had not. Among control variables, prior evacuation, distance to the coastline, residence in a flood zone, concern about the impacts of future natural disaster events, had window protection, and household members being disabled, each had an association with residents’ future evacuation planning and hurricane preparedness. In light of these findings, we discuss the policy implications of our findings for improving disaster management in hurricane-prone areas.more » « less
-
To mitigate the devastating impacts of hurricanes on people’s lives, communities, and societal infrastructures, disaster management would benefit considerably from a detailed understanding of evacuation, including the socio-demographics of the populations that evacuate, or remain, down to disaggregated geographic levels such as local neighborhoods. A detailed household evacuation prediction model for local neighborhoods requires both a robust household evacuation decision model and individual household data for small geographic units. This paper utilizes a recently pub- lished statistical meta-analysis for the first requirement and then conducts a rigorous population synthesis procedure for the second. Our model produces predicted non-evacuation rates for all US Census block groups for the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area for a Hurricane Irma-like storm along with their socio-demographic and hurricane impact risk profiles. Our model predictions indicate that non- evacuation rates are likely to vary considerably, even across neighboring block groups, driven by the variability in evacuation risk profiles. Our results also demonstrate how different predictors may come to the fore in influencing non-evacuation in different block groups, and that predictors which may have an outsize impact on individual household evacuation decisions, such as Race, are not necessarily associated with the greatest differentials in non-evacuation rates when we aggregate households to block group level and above. Our research is intended to provide a framework for the design of hurricane evacuation prediction tools that could be used in disaster management.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-024-01640-7
