Abstract Capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere via large‐scale direct air capture (DAC) deployment is critical for achieving net‐zero emissions. Large‐scale DAC deployment, though, will require significant cost reductions in part through policy and investment support. This study evaluates the impact of policy interventions on DAC cost reduction by integrating energy system optimization and learning curve models. We examine how three policy instruments—incremental deployment, accelerated deployment, and R&D‐driven innovation—impact DAC learning investment, which is the total investment required until the technology achieves cost parity with conventional alternatives or target cost. Our findings show that while incremental deployment demands significant learning investment, R&D‐driven innovation is considerably cheaper at cost reduction. Under a baseline 8% learning rate, incremental deployment may require up to $998 billion to reduce costs from $1,154 to $400/tCO2, while accelerated deployment support could save approximately $7 billion on that investment. In contrast, R&D support achieves equivalent cost reductions at less than half the investment of incremental deployment. However, the effectiveness of R&D intervention varies with learning rates and R&D breakthroughs. R&D yields net benefits in all cases except at extremely low breakthroughs (5%) and very high learning rates (20%), where they are slightly more expensive. For learning rates below 20%, R&D provides net benefits even at minimal breakthroughs. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive public policy strategies that balance near‐term deployment incentives with long‐term innovation investments if we are to ensure DACS becomes a viable technology for mitigating climate change.
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America, Jump-Started: World War II R&D and the Takeoff of the US Innovation System
During World War II, the US government’s Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) supported one of the largest public investments in applied R&D in US history. Using data on all OSRD-funded invention, we show this shock had a formative impact on the US innovation system, catalyzing technology clusters across the country, with accompanying increases in high-tech entrepreneur-ship and employment. These effects persist until at least the 1970s and appear to be driven by agglomerative forces and endogenous growth. In addition to creating technology clusters, wartime R&D permanently changed the trajectory of overall US innovation in the direction of OSRD-funded technologies.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1951470
- PAR ID:
- 10550449
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Economic Review
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- American Economic Review
- Volume:
- 113
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 0002-8282
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 3323 to 3356
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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