skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Effects of climate and winter cover crops on nutrient loss in agricultural watersheds in the midwestern U.S.
Nutrient runoff from agricultural regions of the midwestern U.S. corn belt has degraded water quality in many inland and coastal water bodies such as the Great Lakes and Gulf of Mexico. Under current climate, observational studies have shown that winter cover crops can reduce dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus losses from row-cropped agricultural watersheds, but performance of cover crops in response to climate variability and climate change has not been systematically evaluated. Using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, calibrated using multiple years of field-based data, we simulated historical and projected future nutrient loss from two representative agricultural watersheds in northern Indiana, USA. For 100% cover crop coverage, historical simulations showed a 31–33% reduction in nitrate (NO3−) loss and a 15–23% reduction in Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (SRP) loss in comparison with a no-cover-crop baseline. Under climate change scenarios, without cover crops, projected warmer and wetter conditions strongly increased nutrient loss, especially in the fallow period from Oct to Apr when changes in infiltration and runoff are largest. In the absence of cover crops, annual nutrient losses for the RCP8.5 2080s scenario were 26–38% higher for NO3−, and 9–46% higher for SRP. However, the effectiveness of cover crops also increased under climate change. For an ensemble of 60 climate change scenarios based on CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, 19 out of 24 ensemble-mean simulations of future nutrient loss with 100% cover crops were less than or equal to historical simulations with 100% cover crops, despite systematic increases in nutrient loss due to climate alone. These results demonstrate that planting winter cover crops over row-cropped land areas constitutes a robust climate change adaptation strategy for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural lands, enhancing resilience to a projected warmer and wetter winter climate in the midwestern U.S.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2206086
PAR ID:
10552024
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Climatic Change
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Volume:
177
Issue:
1
ISSN:
0165-0009
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer enhances crop production, but field runoff impacts water quality in adjacent freshwaters. Planting winter cover crops reduces nitrate-N losses during the fallow period, but less is known about impacts on ammonium-N. From 2016–2023, we sampled biweekly from the Shatto Ditch and Kirkpatrick Ditch Watersheds in Indiana (USA) to compare the impact of cover crops on dissolved inorganic nitrogen at the field-, edge-of-field, and watershed-scales. We measured soil ammonium-N and nitrate-N, biomass, and organic matter in fall and spring. Cover crops reduced soil ammonium-N at Shatto and soil nitrate-N in both watersheds. Tile losses and watershed yields of ammonium-N occurred on scales orders of magnitude lower than nitrate-N. Tile ammonium-N losses from cover cropped fields ranged from 97 % lower to 31 % higher at Shatto, and 45 % lower to 75 % higher at Kirkpatrick compared to those without. Cover crops reduced field-scale nitrate-N losses at Shatto by 58–87 %, but losses at Kirkpatrick ranged 99 % lower to 15 % higher. Tile flow explained interannual variation in nitrate-N losses, while field-scale ammonium-N losses were driven by soil and microbial interactions and mobilization during storms. Watershed-scale ammonium-N and nitrate-N yields correlated with runoff (Kendall τ=0.45 and 0.39, respectively). While nitrate-N yields mirrored runoff, ammonium-N yields exhibited a step-functional increase, pointing to the importance of storms as a driver of loss. As Midwest crop production adapts to fluctuating environmental conditions, we demonstrate how applying cover crops over a multi-year period can mitigate ammonium-N losses 
    more » « less
  2. null (Ed.)
    Climate change will ultimately result in higher surface temperature and more variable precipitation, negatively affecting agricultural productivity. To sustain the agricultural production in the face of climate change, adaptive agricultural management or best management practices (BMPs) are needed. The currently practiced BMPs include crop rotation, early planting, conservation tillage, cover crops, effective fertilizer use, and so on. This research investigated the agricultural production of BMPs in response to climate change for a Hydrologic Unit Code12 sub-watershed of Choctawhatchee Watershed in Alabama, USA. The dominating soil type of this region was sandy loam and loamy sand soil. Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator and Cropping Systems Simulation Model were used to estimate the agricultural production. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 that projected a temperature increase of 2.3℃ and 4.7℃ were used as climate scenarios. The research demonstrated that crop rotation had positive response to climate change. With peanuts in the rotation, a production increase of 105% was observed for cotton. There was no consistent impact on crop yields by early planting. With selected peanut-cotton rotations, 50% reduced nitrogen fertilizer use was observed to achieve comparable crop yields. In response to climate change, crop rotation with legume incorporation is thus suggested, which increased crop production and reduced fertilizer use. 
    more » « less
  3. The relationship between nutrient cycling and water quality in mixed-use ecosystems is driven by interactions among biotic and abiotic processes. However, the underlying processes cannot always be directly observed or modeled at broad spatial scales. Numerous empirical studies have employed land use patterns, variations in watershed physiography or disturbance regimes to characterize nutrient export from mixed-use watersheds, but simultaneously disentangling the effects of such factors remains challenging and few models directly incorporate vegetation biochemistry. Here we use structural equation models (SEMs) to assess the relative influence of foliar chemical traits (derived from imaging spectroscopy), watershed physiography, and human land use on the water quality (summer baseflow nitrate-N and soluble reactive phosphorus concentration) in watersheds across the Upper Midwestern United States. We use an SEM to link water quality (stream nitrate-nitrogen and dissolved phosphorus) to foliar retention (AVIRIS-Classic derived foliar traits related to recalcitrance), watershed retention (wetland proportion, MODIS Tasseled Cap Wetness), runoff (agricultural and urban land use), and watershed leakiness (AVIRIS-Classic foliar nitrogen, nitrogen deposition). The SEMs confirmed that variables associated with foliar retention derived from imaging spectroscopy are negatively related to watershed leakiness (standardized path coefficient = −0.892) and positively to watershed retention (standardized path coefficient = 0.705), with features related to watershed retention and runoff exerting the strongest controls on water quality (standardized path coefficients of −0.270 and 0.331 respectively). Comparing forested and agricultural watersheds, we found significantly increased importance of foliar retention to watershed leakiness in forests compared to agriculture (standardized coefficients of −1.004 and −0.764 respectively), with measures of watershed retention more important to runoff and water quality in agricultural watersheds. The results illustrate the capacity of imaging spectroscopy to provide measures of foliar traits that influence nutrient cycling in watersheds. Ultimately, the results may help focus development and restoration policies towards building more resilient landscapes that take into consideration associations among functional traits of vegetation, physiography and climate. 
    more » « less
  4. The increase of tree canopy cover due to woody plant encroachment and tree plantations modifies both carbon and water dynamics. The tradeoffs between ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) and water use with increasing tree cover in different climate conditions, particularly under future climate scenarios, are not well understood. Within the climate transition zone of the southern Great Plains, USA, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) to investigate the combined impacts of increasing tree cover and climate change on carbon and water dynamics in three watersheds representing semiarid, subhumid, and humid climates. Model simulations incorporated two land use modifications (Baseline: existing tree cover; Forest +: increasing evergreen tree cover), in conjunction with two climate change projections (the RCP45 and the RCP85), spanning two time periods (historic: 1991-2020; future: 2070-2099). With climate change, the subhumid and humid watersheds exhibited a greater increase in evapotranspiration (ET) and a corresponding reduction in runoff compared to the semi-arid watershed, while the semi-arid and subhumid watersheds encountered pronounced losses in water availability for streams (>200 mm/year) due to increasing tree cover and climate change. With every 1 % increase in tree cover, both NPP and water use efficiency were projected to increase in all three watersheds under both climate change scenarios, with the subhumid watershed demonstrating the largest increases (>0.16 Mg/ha/year and 170 %, respectively). Increasing tree cover within grasslands, either through woody plant expansion or afforestation, boosts ecosystem NPP, particularly in subhumid regions. Nevertheless, this comes with a notable decrease in water resources, a concern made worse by future climate change. While afforestation offers the potential for greater NPP, it also brings heightened water scarcity concerns, highlighting the importance of tailoring carbon sequestration strategies within specific regions to mitigate unintended repercussions on water availability. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Conservation tillage has been promoted as an effective practice to preserve soil health and enhance agroecosystem services. Changes in tillage intensity have a profound impact on soil nitrogen cycling, yet their influence on nitrate losses at large spatiotemporal scales remains uncertain. This study examined the effects of tillage intensity on soil nitrate losses in the US Midwest from 1979–2018 using field data synthesis and process-based agroecosystem modeling approaches. Our results revealed that no-tillage (NT) or reduced tillage intensity (RTI) decreased nitrate runoff but increased nitrate leaching compared to conventional tillage. These trade-offs were largely caused by altered water fluxes, which elevated total nitrate losses. The structural equation model suggested that precipitation had more pronounced effects on nitrate leaching and runoff than soil properties (i.e. texture, pH, and bulk density). Reduction in nitrate runoff under NT or RTI was negatively correlated with precipitation, and the increased nitrate leaching was positively associated with soil bulk density. We further explored the combined effects of NT or RTI and winter cover crops and found that incorporating winter cover crops into NT systems effectively reduced nitrate runoff but did not significantly affect nitrate leaching. Our findings underscore the precautions of implementing NT or RTI to promote sustainable agriculture under changing climate conditions. This study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between tillage intensity and nitrate loss pathways, contributing to informed decision-making in climate-smart agriculture. 
    more » « less