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Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the global occurrence and intensity of heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts. However, it is not well understood how the compound heatwave, extreme precipitation, and flash drought events will likely change, and how global population, agriculture, and forest will likely be exposed to these compound events under future climate change scenarios. This research uses eight CMIP6 climate models to assess the current and future global compound climate extreme events, as well as population, agriculture, and forestry exposures to these events, under two climate scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for three time periods: early‐, mid‐, and late‐ 21st century. Climate extremes are derived for heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts using locational‐dependent thresholds. We find that compound heatwaves and flash drought events result in the largest increases in exposure of populations, agriculture, and forest lands, under SSP5‐8.5 late‐century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts. Late‐century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts show hot spots of exposure increases in population exposure greater than 50 million person‐events in China, India, and Europe; increases in agriculture land exposures greater than 90 thousand km2‐events in China, South America, and Oceania; and increase in forest land exposure greater than 120 thousand km2‐events in Oceania and South America regions when compared to the historical period. The findings from this study can be potentially useful for informing global climate adaptations.
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This content will become publicly available on December 1, 2025
Anthropogenic and atmospheric variability intensifies flash drought episodes in South Asia
Abstract Flash droughts are abrupt and rapid intensification of droughts that affect agriculture, water, and ecosystems and are commonplace in South Asia. Despite their potential impact, flash drought evolution characteristics and underlying mechanisms in South Asia remain underexplored. We use a multivariate approach to analyze the onset speed, frequency, severity, duration, and return period of flash droughts, and the role of atmospheric circulation and human-induced climate change. We find that flash droughts are more common and intense in the crop season, especially in central India, western Pakistan, and eastern Afghanistan. They are caused by persistent atmospheric patterns that block moisture transport to South Asia. Additionally, anthropogenic climate change has intensified flash droughts in the spring-summer season, with a median fraction of attributable risk of 60%, 80%, and 90% for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, respectively. Our results suggest that flash droughts will expand and worsen in the future, requiring adaptation measures for the water, agriculture, and energy sectors.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2427554
- PAR ID:
- 10552631
- Publisher / Repository:
- communications earth & environment
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2662-4435
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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