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Abstract We extend the locking technique to separate the poleward shift of the atmospheric circulation in response to quadrupled CO2into contributions from (1) CO2increase, (2) cloud radiative effects, and (3) wind and surface humidity‐induced surface heat exchange. In aquaplanet simulations, wind and surface humidity‐induced surface heat exchange accounts for 30–60% of the Hadley cell edge and midlatitude eddy‐driven jet shift. The increase of surface specific humidity dominates and mostly follows global mean warming. Consistent with previous work the remaining shift is attributed to cloud radiative effects. Across CMIP5 models the intermodel variance in the austral winter circulation shift in response to quadrupled CO2is significantly correlated with the response of the subtropical‐subpolar difference of surface heat exchange. The results highlight the dominant role of surface heat exchange for future circulation changes.
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Future cities demand smart and equitable infrastructure resilience modeling perspectives
Abstract Risk-informed decisions that promote infrastructure resilience (or the ability to withstand, recover from, and adapt to stressors like natural hazards) require confident predictions of system performance now and into the future. We propose a perspective shift–one capable of handling uncertain and dynamic conditions, leveraging emerging observations from smart systems, and guided by demands for social equity. This shift requires collective efforts, but our future cities demand and deserve it.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2227467
- PAR ID:
- 10554023
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- npj Natural Hazards
- Volume:
- 1
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2948-2100
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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