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1. Rapid decrease of the Labrador Sea’s influence on black spruce ecosystems with distance inland

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01271-4  

   Larose, Julien; Boucher, Étienne; de_Vernal, Anne; de_Mendoza, Ignacio Hermoso; Gennaretti, Fabio; Lavergne, Aliénor; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Field, Robert D (December 2024, Communications Earth & Environment)

   Abstract In eastern Canada, Black spruce (Picea marianaMill. B.S.P.) grows in a wide variety of climates, from maritime-oceanic conditions near the Labrador Sea, to more continental climates, inland. Along this gradient, timing and provenance of heat and moisture that support growth are uncertain, weakening our capacity to predict the response of boreal ecosystems to climate variability. Here, we measured the stable oxygen isotopic composition of black spruce tree-ring cellulose at three sites in eastern Canada and provide evidence of a rapid decrease of Labrador Sea’s influence on adjacent ecosystems. Our results report a landwards decrease in the oxygen isotope composition of both tree-ring cellulose (δ¹⁸O_TRC) and precipitation water (δ¹⁸O_p). We also reveal a rapid landwards decoupling betweenδ¹⁸O_TRCvariability (1950-2013), maximum temperature and Sea Surface Temperature variations over the Northwest Atlantic. Thus, despite their apparent ecological homogeneity, eastern Canada’s black spruce ecosystems rely on heterogeneous sources of heat and moisture. 

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2. Seasonal SIMS δ18O record in Astarte borealis from the Baltic Sea tracks a modern regime shift in the NAO

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1293823  

   Hughes, Hunter P; Surge, Donna; Orland, Ian J; Zettler, Michael L; Moss, David K (December 2023, Frontiers in Marine Science)

   IntroductionAstarte borealisholds great potential as an archive of seasonal paleoclimate, especially due to its long lifespan (several decades to more than a century) and ubiquitous distribution across high northern latitudes. Furthermore, recent work demonstrates that the isotope geochemistry of the aragonite shell is a faithful proxy of environmental conditions. However, the exceedingly slow growth rates ofA. borealisin some locations (<0.2mm/year) make it difficult to achieve seasonal resolution using standard micromilling techniques for conventional stable isotope analysis. Moreover, oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) records from species inhabiting brackish environments are notoriously difficult to use as paleoclimate archives because of the simultaneous variation in temperature and δ¹⁸O_watervalues. MethodsHere we use secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) to microsample anA. borealisspecimen from the southern Baltic Sea, yielding 451 SIMS δ¹⁸O_shellvalues at sub-monthly resolution. ResultsSIMS δ¹⁸O_shellvalues exhibit a quasi-sinusoidal pattern with 24 local maxima and minima coinciding with 24 annual growth increments between March 1977 and the month before specimen collection in May 2001. DiscussionAge-modeled SIMS δ¹⁸O_shellvalues correlate significantly with bothin situtemperature measured from shipborne CTD casts (r² = 0.52, p<0.001) and sea surface temperature from the ORAS5-SST global reanalysis product for the Baltic Sea region (r² = 0.42, p<0.001). We observe the strongest correlation between SIMS δ¹⁸O_shellvalues and salinity when both datasets are run through a 36-month LOWESS function (r² = 0.71, p < 0.001). Similarly, we find that LOWESS-smoothed SIMS δ¹⁸O_shellvalues exhibit a moderate correlation with the LOWESS-smoothed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index (r² = 0.46, p<0.001). Change point analysis supports that SIMS δ¹⁸O_shellvalues capture a well-documented regime shift in the NAO circa 1989. We hypothesize that the correlation between the SIMS δ¹⁸O_shelltime series and the NAO is enhanced by the latter’s influence on the regional covariance of water temperature and δ¹⁸O_watervalues on interannual and longer timescales in the Baltic Sea. These results showcase the potential for SIMS δ¹⁸O_shellvalues inA. borealisshells to provide robust paleoclimate information regarding hydroclimate variability from seasonal to decadal timescales. 

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3. Vegetation classifications for random points in the Agashashok River watershed in 1952, 1979 and 2015

   https://doi.org/10.18739/A23N20F45  

   Sullivan, Patrick; Dial, Roman; Terskaia, Anna (January 2020, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Climate change is expected to increase woody vegetation abundance in the Arctic, yet the magnitude, spatial pattern and pathways of change remain uncertain. We compared historical orthophotos photos (1952 and 1979) with high-resolution satellite imagery (2015) to examine six decades of change in abundance of white spruce (Picea glauca) and tall shrubs (Salix spp., Alnus spp.) near the Agashashok River in northwest Alaska. We established ~3000 random points within our ~5500 hectare (ha) study area for classification into nine cover types. To examine physiographic controls on tree abundance, we fit multinomial log-linear models with predictors derived from a digital elevation model and with arctic tundra, alpine tundra and “tree” as levels of a categorical response variable. Between 1952 and 2015, points classified as arctic and alpine tundra decreased by 31% and 15%, respectively. Meanwhile, tall shrubs increased by 86%, trees mixed with tall shrubs increased by 385% and forest increased by 84%. Tundra with tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. The best multinomial model explained 71% of variation in cover and included elevation, slope and an interaction between slope and “northness”. Treeline was defined as the elevation where the probability of tree presence equaled that of tundra. Mean treeline elevation in 2015 was 202 meters (m), corresponding with a June-August mean air temperature greater than 11° Celsius (C), which is greater than 4°C warmer than the 6-7°C isotherm associated with global treeline elevations. Our results show dramatic increases in the abundance of trees and tall shrubs, question the universality of air temperature as a predictor of treeline elevation and suggest two mutually exclusive pathways of vegetation change, because tundra that gained tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. Conversion of tundra to tall shrubs and forest has important and potentially contrasting implications for carbon cycling, surface energy exchange and wildlife habitat in the Arctic. 

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4. Hydroclimatic Controls on the Isotopic (δ18 O, δ2 H, d-excess) Traits of Pan-Arctic Summer Rainfall Events

   https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.651731  

   Mellat, Moein; Bailey, Hannah; Mustonen, Kaisa-Riikka; Marttila, Hannu; Klein, Eric S.; Gribanov, Konstantin; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Chupakov, Artem V.; Divine, Dmitry V.; Else, Brent; et al (May 2021, Frontiers in Earth Science)

   Arctic sea-ice loss is emblematic of an amplified Arctic water cycle and has critical feedback implications for global climate. Stable isotopes (δ 18 O, δ 2 H, d-excess ) are valuable tracers for constraining water cycle and climate processes through space and time. Yet, the paucity of well-resolved Arctic isotope data preclude an empirically derived understanding of the hydrologic changes occurring today, in the deep (geologic) past, and in the future. To address this knowledge gap, the Pan-Arctic Precipitation Isotope Network (PAPIN) was established in 2018 to coordinate precipitation sampling at 19 stations across key tundra, subarctic, maritime, and continental climate zones. Here, we present a first assessment of rainfall samples collected in summer 2018 ( n = 281) and combine new isotope and meteorological data with sea ice observations, reanalysis data, and model simulations. Data collectively establish a summer Arctic Meteoric Water Line where δ 2 H = 7.6⋅δ 18 O–1.8 ( r 2 = 0.96, p < 0.01). Mean amount-weighted δ 18 O, δ 2 H, and d-excess values were −12.3, −93.5, and 4.9‰, respectively, with the lowest summer mean δ 18 O value observed in northwest Greenland (−19.9‰) and the highest in Iceland (−7.3‰). Southern Alaska recorded the lowest mean d-excess (−8.2%) and northern Russia the highest (9.9‰). We identify a range of δ 18 O-temperature coefficients from 0.31‰/°C (Alaska) to 0.93‰/°C (Russia). The steepest regression slopes (>0.75‰/°C) were observed at continental sites, while statistically significant temperature relations were generally absent at coastal stations. Model outputs indicate that 68% of the summer precipitating air masses were transported into the Arctic from mid-latitudes and were characterized by relatively high δ 18 O values. Yet 32% of precipitation events, characterized by lower δ 18 O and high d-excess values, derived from northerly air masses transported from the Arctic Ocean and/or its marginal seas, highlighting key emergent oceanic moisture sources as sea ice cover declines. Resolving these processes across broader spatial-temporal scales is an ongoing research priority, and will be key to quantifying the past, present, and future feedbacks of an amplified Arctic water cycle on the global climate system. 

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5. Dynamic treeline and cryosphere response to pronounced mid-Holocene climatic variability in the US Rocky Mountains

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2412162121  

   Pederson, Gregory T; Stahle, Daniel; McWethy, David B; Toohey, Matthew; Jungclaus, Johann; Lee, Craig; Martin, Justin; Alt, Mio; Kichas, Nickolas; Chellman, Nathan; et al (January 2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Climate-driven changes in high-elevation forest distribution and reductions in snow and ice cover have major implications for ecosystems and global water security. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the Rocky Mountains (United States), recent melting of a high-elevation (3,091 m asl) ice patch exposed a mature stand of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) trees, located ~180 m in elevation above modern treeline, that date to the mid-Holocene (c. 5,950 to 5,440 cal y BP). Here, we used this subfossil wood record to develop tree-ring-based temperature estimates for the upper-elevation climate conditions that resulted in ancient forest establishment and growth and the subsequent regional ice-patch growth and downslope shift of treeline. Results suggest that mid-Holocene forest establishment and growth occurred under warm-season (May-Oct) mean temperatures of 6.2 °C (±0.2 °C), until a multicentury cooling anomaly suppressed temperatures below 5.8 °C, resulting in stand mortality by c. 5,440 y BP. Transient climate model simulations indicate that regional cooling was driven by changes in summer insolation and Northern Hemisphere volcanism. The initial cooling event was followed centuries later (c. 5,100 y BP) by sustained Icelandic volcanic eruptions that forced a centennial-scale 1.0 °C summer cooling anomaly and led to rapid ice-patch growth and preservation of the trees. With recent warming (c. 2000–2020 CE), warm-season temperatures now equal and will soon exceed those of the mid-Holocene period of high treeline. It is likely that perennial ice cover will again disappear from the region, and treeline may expand upslope so long as plant-available moisture and disturbance are not limiting. 

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