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Abstract The spatial organization of populations determines their pathogen dynamics. This is particularly important for communally roosting species, whose aggregations are often driven by the spatial structure of their environment.We develop a spatially explicit model for virus transmission within roosts of Australian tree‐dwelling bats (Pteropusspp.), parameterized to reflect Hendra virus. The spatial structure of roosts mirrors three study sites, and viral transmission between groups of bats in trees was modelled as a function of distance between roost trees. Using three levels of tree density to reflect anthropogenic changes in bat habitats, we investigate the potential effects of recent ecological shifts in Australia on the dynamics of zoonotic viruses in reservoir hosts.We show that simulated infection dynamics in spatially structured roosts differ from that of mean‐field models for equivalently sized populations, highlighting the importance of spatial structure in disease models of gregarious taxa. Under contrasting scenarios of flying‐fox roosting structures, sparse stand structures (with fewer trees but more bats per tree) generate higher probabilities of successful outbreaks, larger and faster epidemics, and shorter virus extinction times, compared to intermediate and dense stand structures with more trees but fewer bats per tree. These observations are consistent with the greater force of infection generated by structured populations with less numerous but larger infected groups, and may flag an increased risk of pathogen spillover from these increasingly abundant roost types.Outputs from our models contribute insights into the spread of viruses in structured animal populations, like communally roosting species, as well as specific insights into Hendra virus infection dynamics and spillover risk in a situation of changing host ecology. These insights will be relevant for modelling other zoonotic viruses in wildlife reservoir hosts in response to habitat modification and changing populations, including coronaviruses like SARS‐CoV‐2.
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Ecological and evolutionary characteristics of anthropogenic roosting ability in bats of the world
Although the global conversion of wildlife habitat to built environments often has negative impacts on biodiversity, some wildlife species have the ability to cope by living in human-made structures. However, the determinants of this adaptation on a global scale are not well understood and may signify species with unique conservation needs at the human–wildlife interface. Here, we identify the trait profile associated with anthropogenic roosting in bats globally and characterize the evolution of this phenotype using an original dataset of roosting behavior developed across 1,279 extant species. Trait-based analyses showed that anthropogenic roosting is predictable across bats and is associated with larger geographic ranges, habitat generalism, temperate zone distributions, small litter and body size, and insectivory.Weidentified moderate phylogenetic signal in this complex trait profile, which has undergone both gains and losses across bat evolution and for which speciation rates are lower compared to natural roosting bats.
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- PAR ID:
- 10558740
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- iScience
- Volume:
- 27
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2589-0042
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 110369
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.110369
