skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Improved Understanding of Multicentury Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Strong Warming in the Coupled CESM2‐CISM2 with Regional Grid Refinement
The simulation of ice sheet-climate interaction such as surface massbalance fluxes are sensitive to model grid resolution. Here we simulatethe multicentury evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and itsinteraction with the climate using the Community Earth System Modelversion 2.2 (CESM2.2) including an interactive GrIS component (theCommunity Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) under an idealized warmingscenario (atmospheric CO2 increases by 1% yr−1 until quadrupling thepre-industrial level and then is held fixed). A variable-resolution (VR)grid with 1/4◦ regional refinement over broader Arctic and 1◦ resolutionelsewhere is applied to the atmosphere and land components, and theresults are compared to conventional 1◦ lat-lon grid simulations toinvestigate the impact of grid refinement. An acceleration of GrIS massloss is found at around year 110, caused by rapidly increasing surfacemelt as the ablation area expands with associated albedo feedback andincreased turbulent fluxes. Compared to the 1◦ runs, the VR run featuresslower melt increase, especially over Western and Northern Greenland,which slope gently towards the peripheries. This difference patternoriginates primarily from the weaker albedo feedback in the VR run,complemented by its smaller cloud longwave radiation. The steeper VRGreenland surface topography favors slower ablation zone expansion, thusleading to its weaker albedo feedback. The sea level rise contributionfrom the GrIS in the VR run is 53 mm by year 150 and 831 mm by year 350,approximately 40% and 20% smaller than the 1◦ runs, respectively.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2118285
PAR ID:
10559910
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Authorea Inc.
Date Published:
Format(s):
Medium: X
Institution:
Authorea Inc.
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are synoptic-scale features that transport moisture poleward and may cause short-duration, high-volume melt events on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). In contrast with traditional climate modeling studies that rely on coarse (1 to 2°) grids, this project investigates the effectiveness of variable-resolution (VR) grids in modeling ARs and their subsequent precipitation using refined grid spacing (0.25 and 0.125°) around the GrIS and 1° grid spacing for the rest of the globe in a coupled land–atmosphere model simulation. VR simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 2.2 (CESM2.2) bridge the gap between the limitations of global and regional climate models while maximizing computational efficiency. ARs from CESM2.2 simulations using three grid types (VR, latitude–longitude, and quasi-uniform) with varying resolutions are compared to outputs from two observation-based reanalysis products, ERA5 and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), using a study period of 1 January 1979 to 31 December 1998. The VR grids produce ARs with smaller areal extents and lower area-integrated precipitation over the GrIS compared to latitude–longitude and quasi-uniform grids. We hypothesize that the smaller areal AR extents in VR grids are due to the refined topography resolved in these grids. In contrast, topographic smoothing in coarser-resolution latitude–longitude and quasi-uniform grids allows ARs to penetrate further inland on the GrIS. Precipitation rates are similar for the VR, latitude–longitude, and quasi-uniform grids; thus the reduced areal extent in VR grids produces lower area-integrated precipitation. The VR grids most closely match the AR overlap extent and precipitation in ERA5 and MERRA-2, suggesting the most realistic behavior among the three configurations. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract. Surface mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) hasaccelerated over the past decades, mainly due to enhanced surface meltingand liquid water runoff in response to atmospheric warming. A large portionof runoff from the GrIS originates from exposure of the darker bare ice inthe ablation zone when the overlying snow melts, where surface albedo playsa critical role in modulating the energy available for melting. In thisregard, it is imperative to understand the processes governing albedovariability to accurately project future mass loss from the GrIS. Bare-icealbedo is spatially and temporally variable and contingent on non-linearfeedbacks and the presence of light-absorbing constituents. An assessment ofmodels aiming at simulating albedo variability and associated impacts onmeltwater production is crucial for improving our understanding of theprocesses governing these feedbacks and, in turn, surface mass loss fromGreenland. Here, we report the results of a comparison of the bare-iceextent and albedo simulated by the regional climate model ModèleAtmosphérique Régional (MAR) with satellite imagery from theModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the GrIS below70∘ N. Our findings suggest that MAR overestimates bare-ice albedoby 22.8 % on average in this area during the 2000–2021 period with respectto the estimates obtained from MODIS. Using an energy balance model toparameterize meltwater production, we find this bare-ice albedo bias canlead to an underestimation of total meltwater production from the bare-icezone below 70∘ N of 42.8 % during the summers of 2000–2021. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract The rate of growth or retreat of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets remains a highly uncertain component of future sea level change. Here we examine the simulation of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (GrIS SMB) in a development branch of the ModelE2 version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM). GCMs are often limited in their ability to represent SMB compared with polar region regional climate models. We compare ModelE2‐simulated GrIS SMB for present‐day (1996–2005) simulations with fixed ocean conditions, at a spatial resolution of 2° latitude by 2.5° longitude (~200 km), with SMB simulated by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) regional climate model (1996–2005 at a 25‐km resolution). ModelE2 SMB agrees well with MAR SMB on the whole, but there are distinct spatial patterns of differences and large differences in some SMB components. The impacts of changes to the ModelE2 surface are tested, including a subgrid‐scale representation of SMB with surface elevation classes. This has a minimal effect on ice sheet‐wide SMB but corrects local biases. Replacing fixed surface albedo with satellite‐derived values and an age‐dependent scheme has a larger impact, increasing simulated melt by 60%–100%. We also find that lower surface albedo can enhance the effects of elevation classes. Reducing ModelE2 surface roughness length to values closer to MAR reduces sublimation by ~50%. Further work is required to account for meltwater refreezing in ModelE2 and to understand how differences in atmospheric processes and model resolution influence simulated SMB. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract. Earth system models are essential tools for understandingthe impacts of a warming world, particularly on the contribution of polarice sheets to sea level change. However, current models lack full couplingof the ice sheets to the ocean and are typically run at a coarse resolution(1∘ grid spacing or coarser). Coarse spatial resolution isparticularly a problem over Antarctica, where sub-grid-scale orography iswell-known to influence precipitation fields, and glacier models requirehigh-resolution atmospheric inputs. This resolution limitation has beenpartially addressed by regional climate models (RCMs), which must be forcedat their lateral and ocean surface boundaries by (usually coarser) globalatmospheric datasets, However, RCMs fail to capture the two-way couplingbetween the regional domain and the global climate system. Conversely,running high-spatial-resolution models globally is computationallyexpensive and can produce vast amounts of data. Alternatively, variable-resolution grids can retain the benefits of highresolution over a specified domain without the computational costs ofrunning at a high resolution globally. Here we evaluate a historicalsimulation of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)implementing the spectral element (SE) numerical dynamical core (VR-CESM2)with an enhanced-horizontal-resolution (0.25∘) grid over theAntarctic Ice Sheet and the surrounding Southern Ocean; the rest of theglobal domain is on the standard 1∘ grid. We compare it to1∘ model runs of CESM2 using both the SE dynamical core and thestandard finite-volume (FV) dynamical core, both with identical physics andforcing, including prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations fromobservations. Our evaluation reveals both improvements and degradations inVR-CESM2 performance relative to the 1∘ CESM2. Surface massbalance estimates are slightly higher but within 1 standard deviation ofthe ensemble mean, except for over the Antarctic Peninsula, which isimpacted by better-resolved surface topography. Temperature and windestimates are improved over both the near surface and aloft, although theoverall correction of a cold bias (within the 1∘ CESM2 runs) hasresulted in temperatures which are too high over the interior of the icesheet. The major degradations include the enhancement of surface melt aswell as excessive cloud liquid water over the ocean, with resultant impactson the surface radiation budget. Despite these changes, VR-CESM2 is avaluable tool for the analysis of precipitation and surface mass balanceand thus constraining estimates of sea level rise associated with theAntarctic Ice Sheet. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract. Quantifying the total liquid water amounts (LWAs) in the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is critical for understanding GrIS firn processes, mass balance, and global sea level rise. Although satellite microwave observations are very sensitive to ice sheet melt and thus can provide a way of monitoring the ice sheet melt globally, estimating total LWA, especially the subsurface LWA, remains a challenge. Here, we present a microwave retrieval of LWA over Greenland using enhanced-resolution L-band brightness temperature (TB) data products from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite for the 2015–2023 period. L-band signals receive emission contributions deep in the ice sheet and are sensitive to the liquid water content (LWC) in the firn column. Therefore, they can estimate the surface-to-subsurface LWA, unlike higher-frequency signals (e.g., 18 and 37 GHz bands), which are limited to the top few centimeters of the surface snow during the melt. We used vertically polarized TB (V-pol TB) with empirically derived thresholds to detect liquid water and identify distinct ice sheet zones. A forward model based on radiative transfer (RT) in the ice sheet was used to simulate TB. The simulated TB was then used in an inversion algorithm to estimate LWA. Finally, the retrievals were compared with the LWA obtained from two sources. The first source was a locally calibrated ice sheet energy and mass balance (EMB) model, and the second source was the Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model within NASA's Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM). Both models were forced by in situ measurements from six automatic weather stations (AWSs) of the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) and the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) located in the percolation zone of the GrIS. The retrievals show generally good agreement with both the references, demonstrating the potential for advancing our understanding of ice sheet physical processes to better project Greenland's contribution to the global sea level rise in response to the warming climate. 
    more » « less