Attention:The NSF Public Access Repository (PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 5:00 PM ET until 8:00 PM ET on Friday, September 11 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: Marine emissions and trade winds control the atmospheric nitrous oxide in the Galapagos Islands
Abstract. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas emitted by oceanic and terrestrial sources, with its biogeochemical cycle influenced by both natural processes and anthropogenic activities. Current atmospheric N2O monitoring networks, including tall-tower and flask measurements, often overlook major marine hotspots, such as the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. We present the first 15 months of high-frequency continuous measurements of N2O and carbon monoxide from the newly established Galapagos Emissions Monitoring Station (GEMS) in this region. Over this period, N2O mole fractions vary by approximately 5 ppb, influenced by seasonal trade winds, local anthropogenic emissions, and air masses transported from marine N2O hotspots. Notably, between February and April 2024, we observe high variability linked to the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and weakened trade winds over the Galapagos Islands. Increased variability during this period is driven by stagnant local winds, which accumulate emissions, and the mixing of air masses with different N2O content from the northern and southern hemispheres. The remaining variability is primarily due to differences in air mass transport and heterogeneity in surface fluxes from the eastern tropical Pacific. Air masses passing over the Peruvian and Chilean upwelling systems— key sources of oceanic N2O efflux — show markedly higher N2O mole fractions at the GEMS station.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2138890
PAR ID:
10561778
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
Date Published:
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance that has been accumulating in the atmosphere since the preindustrial period. The mole fraction of atmospheric N2O has increased by nearly 25 % from 270 ppb (parts per billion) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022, with the fastest annual growth rate since 1980 of more than 1.3 ppb yr−1 in both 2020 and 2021. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), the relative contribution of N2O to the total enhanced effective radiative forcing of greenhouse gases was 6.4 % for 1750–2022. As a core component of our global greenhouse gas assessments coordinated by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), our global N2O budget incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks and accounts for the interactions between nitrogen additions and the biogeochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (BU: inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, and process-based land and ocean modeling) and top-down (TD: atmospheric measurement-based inversion) approaches. We provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks in 21 natural and anthropogenic categories in 18 regions between 1980 and 2020. We estimate that total annual anthropogenic N2O emissions have increased 40 % (or 1.9 Tg N yr−1) in the past 4 decades (1980–2020). Direct agricultural emissions in 2020 (3.9 Tg N yr−1, best estimate) represent the large majority of anthropogenic emissions, followed by other direct anthropogenic sources, including fossil fuel and industry, waste and wastewater, and biomass burning (2.1 Tg N yr−1), and indirect anthropogenic sources (1.3 Tg N yr−1) . For the year 2020, our best estimate of total BU emissions for natural and anthropogenic sources was 18.5 (lower–upper bounds: 10.6–27.0) Tg N yr−1, close to our TD estimate of 17.0 (16.6–17.4) Tg N yr−1. For the 2010–2019 period, the annual BU decadal-average emissions for both natural and anthropogenic sources were 18.2 (10.6–25.9) Tg N yr−1 and TD emissions were 17.4 (15.8–19.20) Tg N yr−1. The once top emitter Europe has reduced its emissions by 31 % since the 1980s, while those of emerging economies have grown, making China the top emitter since the 2010s. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded projected levels under all scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions. To evaluate mitigation efforts and contribute to the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we propose the establishment of a global network for monitoring and modeling N2O from the surface through to the stratosphere. The data presented in this work can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/RQ8P-2Z4R (Tian et al., 2023). 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract The Kuroshio Extension (KE) exhibits significant decadal variations, particularly following the 1976/77 Pacific climate regime shift. Robust ocean–atmosphere interactions over the KE imply a potential key role in basin-scale climate variability. Recent studies suggest that North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-like atmospheric teleconnections from the central tropical Pacific dominantly influence KE decadal variability through oceanic Rossby waves. However, this relationship varies on interdecadal time scales and only achieves statistical significance after the regime shift. This study utilizes outputs from an unprecedented 500-yr preindustrial control simulation conducted with an eddy-resolving coupled general circulation model to explore the potential and mechanisms of natural variability–induced interdecadal modulation. When the entire simulation period is divided into five segments, a relationship between the KE and the central tropical Pacific, resembling that after the regime shift, is found during the segment marked by the strongest decadal variability in the central tropical Pacific and the NPO. These variabilities enhance each other by positive feedback on decadal time scale via the Pacific meridional mode triggered by air–sea interaction. As the westerly jet migrates southward over the eastern North Pacific during this period, the southern lobe of the NPO also expands southward, likely providing a favorable background condition for its active interaction with the tropics. In contrast, the relationship is absent in other periods, likely due to weaker and less persistent tropical variability, differences in the location of atmospheric teleconnections, and/or influences of the Kuroshio large meander. These findings suggest that the interdecadal modulation of the KE may occur independently of anthropogenic forcing. Significance StatementAtmospheric teleconnections from the central tropical Pacific have been suggested to drive the decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension, particularly after the 1976/77 climate regime shift. This study analyzes a 500-yr preindustrial simulation from a high-resolution coupled model, revealing a possible interdecadal modulation of this relationship due to natural variability. The observed relationship emerges during a simulation period characterized by strong decadal variability in the central tropical Pacific and the North Pacific atmosphere. They enhance each other via air–sea interaction, suggesting a positive feedback operating on decadal time scales. During this period, anomalous atmospheric circulation over the eastern North Pacific expands southward, associated with a southward-shifted westerly jet, providing a favorable background condition. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) are two proposed methods of compensating for greenhouse gas‐induced warming by reflecting incoming solar radiation. However, their effects on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a critical mode of climate variability, are poorly understood. Here we use ensembles of climate model simulations to show that deploying MCB in the subtropical eastern Pacific dramatically reduces ENSO amplitude by approximately 61%, while SAI has a negligible impact. MCB increases cloud albedo, which cools the subtropical eastern Pacific and triggers a loss of moist static energy. This cooling promotes atmospheric subsidence, dries the tropical Pacific, and intensifies the trade winds. The ultimate effect is a dramatic reduction in all air‐sea feedback processes operating during ENSO, which we demonstrate using a mixed‐layer heat budget. This contrast between the MCB and SAI impacts on ENSO shows that the choice of climate intervention strategy used to mitigate global warming has drastic regional implications. 
    more » « less
  4. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the tropical Pacific can affect Arctic climate, but whether it can be influenced by the Arctic is unclear. Using model simulations, we show that Arctic sea ice–air interactions weaken ENSO by about 12 to 17%. The northern North Pacific Ocean warms due to increased absorption of solar radiation under such interactions. The warming excites an anomalous tropospheric Rossby wave propagating equatorward into the tropical Pacific to strengthen cross-equator winds and deepen the thermocline. These mean changes dampen ENSO amplitude via weakened thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks. Observed historical changes from 1921–1960 (with strong sea ice–air interactions) to 1971–2000 (with weak interactions) are qualitatively consistent with the model results. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice–air interactions affect both the mean state and variability in the tropical Pacific, and imply increased ENSO amplitude as Arctic sea ice and its interactions with the atmosphere diminish under anthropogenic warming. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Despite rising global-mean temperatures, large parts of the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled during the satellite era. These regions may be linked by teleconnections, with Southern Ocean cooling contributing to tropical eastern Pacific cooling. We demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the teleconnection is shown to be mediated by the magnitude of the positive cloud–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the strength of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. We link excessive precipitation in the tropical Pacific south of the equator to the strength of the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection. This model bias, known as the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is shown to be related to erroneous convection south of the equator, weakened cross-equatorial trade winds, and unfavorable meteorological conditions for marine boundary layer subtropical clouds. We postulate there is a two-way interaction, in which a double-ITCZ occurs with weaker cloud–SST and WES feedbacks, which in turn impact local SSTs and amplify the double-ITCZ. Models with a stronger Southern Ocean to tropical Pacific teleconnection tend to exhibit more multidecadal variability in the Walker circulation, ITCZ, and west–east equatorial SST gradient, as well as greater delayed warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean resulting from delayed Southern Ocean warming under greenhouse gas forcing. These results provide insight into why ESMs struggle to replicate observed tropical Pacific temperature trend patterns and point to ITCZ location as a key target for improvement in future model development. Significance StatementThe key advancement of this study is to demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical east Pacific. As a result, historical cooling in the Southern Ocean may explain a larger fraction of observed east Pacific cooling than previously appreciated. Initial evidence suggests unrealistic precipitation simulated by models in the southeast equatorial Pacific may result in a “blocking” of high latitude influence due to its impact on the magnitude of the cloud–SST feedback and response of easterly trade winds. These results improve our understanding of the processes controlling the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection and provide a guide for future model development and climate trend attribution. 
    more » « less