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  • Threshold Changes in Winter Temperature and Precipitation Drive Threshold Responses Across Nine Global Climate Zones and Associated Biomes
Title: Threshold Changes in Winter Temperature and Precipitation Drive Threshold Responses Across Nine Global Climate Zones and Associated Biomes
Globally, winter temperatures are rising, and snowpack is shrinking or disappearing entirely. Despite previous research and published literature reviews, it remains unknown whether biomes across the globe will cross important thresholds in winter temperature and precipitation that will lead to significant ecological changes. Here, we combine the widely used Köppen–Geiger climate classification system with worst-case-scenario projected changes in global monthly temperature and precipitation to illustrate how multiple climatic zones across Earth may experience shifting winter conditions by the end of this century. We then examine how these shifts may affect ecosystems within corresponding biomes. Our analysis demonstrates potential widespread losses of extreme cold (<−20°C) in Arctic, boreal, and cool temperate regions. We also show the possible disappearance of freezing temperatures (<0°C) and large decreases in snowfall in warm temperate and dryland areas. We identify important and potentially irreversible ecological changes associated with crossing these winter climate thresholds.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1637685 2224545
PAR ID:
10562420
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Editor(s):
Gallagher, Richard; Futuyma, Douglas J
Publisher / Repository:
Annual Reviews
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
Volume:
55
Issue:
1
ISSN:
1543-592X
Page Range / eLocation ID:
271 to 300
Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
climate change temperature precipitation threshold Koppen-Geiger global biomes
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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