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Vegetation influences climate by altering water and energy budgets. With intensifying threats from anthropogenic activities, both terrestrial biomes and climate are expected to change, and the need to understand land–atmosphere interactions will become increasingly crucial. We ran a climate model coupled with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) to investigate the establishment of terrestrial biomes starting from a bareground scenario and how these biomes influence the climate throughout their evolution. Vegetation reaches quasi-equilibrium after ~350 years, and the vegetation establishment results in global increases in temperature (~2.5 °C), precipitation (~5.5%) and evapotranspiration as well as declines in albedo and sea ice volumes. In high latitude regions, vegetation establishment decreases albedo, causing an increase in global temperatures as well as a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Low latitude tropical afforestation results in greater evapotranspiration and precipitation, and an initial decrease in temperatures due to evaporative cooling.
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This content will become publicly available on November 4, 2025
Threshold Changes in Winter Temperature and Precipitation Drive Threshold Responses Across Nine Global Climate Zones and Associated Biomes
Globally, winter temperatures are rising, and snowpack is shrinking or disappearing entirely. Despite previous research and published literature reviews, it remains unknown whether biomes across the globe will cross important thresholds in winter temperature and precipitation that will lead to significant ecological changes. Here, we combine the widely used Köppen–Geiger climate classification system with worst-case-scenario projected changes in global monthly temperature and precipitation to illustrate how multiple climatic zones across Earth may experience shifting winter conditions by the end of this century. We then examine how these shifts may affect ecosystems within corresponding biomes. Our analysis demonstrates potential widespread losses of extreme cold (<−20°C) in Arctic, boreal, and cool temperate regions. We also show the possible disappearance of freezing temperatures (<0°C) and large decreases in snowfall in warm temperate and dryland areas. We identify important and potentially irreversible ecological changes associated with crossing these winter climate thresholds.
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- PAR ID:
- 10562420
- Editor(s):
- Gallagher, Richard; Futuyma, Douglas J
- Publisher / Repository:
- Annual Reviews
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
- Volume:
- 55
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1543-592X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 271 to 300
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- climate change temperature precipitation threshold Koppen-Geiger global biomes
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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