skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


This content will become publicly available on January 9, 2026

Title: Calibration of RAFM Micro Mechanical Model for Creep using Bayesian Optimization for Functional Output
Abstract A Bayesian optimization procedure is presented for calibrating a multi-mechanism micromechanical model for creep to experimental data of F82H steel. Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels based on Fe(8-9)%Cr are the most promising candidates for some fusion reactor structures. Although there are indications that RAFM steel could be viable for fusion applications at temperatures up to 600 °C, the maximum operating temperature will be determined by the creep properties of the structural material and the breeder material compatibility with the structural material. Due to the relative paucity of available creep data on F82H steel compared to other alloys such as Grade 91 steel, micromechanical models are sought for simulating creep based on relevant deformation mechanisms. As a point of departure, this work recalibrates a model form that was previously proposed for Grade 91 steel to match creep curves for F82H steel. Due to the large number of parameters (9) and cost of the nonlinear simulations, an automated approach for tuning the parameters is pursued using a recently developed Bayesian optimization for functional output (BOFO) framework [1]. Incorporating extensions such as batch sequencing and weighted experimental load cases into BOFO, a reasonably small error between experimental and simulated creep curves at two load levels is achieved in a reasonable number of iterations. Validation with an additional creep curve provides confidence in the fitted parameters obtained from the automated calibration procedure to describe the creep behavior of F82H steel.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1751591
PAR ID:
10567175
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
American Society of Mechanical Engineers
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Computing and Information Science in Engineering
ISSN:
1530-9827
Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
Model calibration Crystal plasticity Bayesian optimization Microstructural modeling Generalized chi-square distribution
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. A vast amount of experimental and analytical research has been conducted related to the seismic behavior and performance of concrete filled steel tubular (CFT) columns. This research has resulted in a wealth of information on the component behavior. However, analytical and experimental data for structural systems with CFT columns is limited, and the well known behavior of steel or concrete structures is assumed valid for designing these systems. This paper presents the development of an analytical model for nonlinear analysis of composite moment resisting frame (CFT MRF) systems with CFT columns and steel wide flange (WF) beams under seismic loading. The model integrates component models for steel WF beams, CFT columns, connections between CFT columns and WF beams, and CFT panel zones. These component models account for nonlinear behavior due to steel yielding and local buckling in the beams and columns, concrete cracking and crushing in the columns, and yielding of panel zones and connections. Component tests were used to validate the component models. The model for a CFT MRF considers second order geometric effects from the gravity load bearing system using a lean on column. The experimental results from the testing of a four story CFT MRF test structure are used as a benchmark to validate the modeling procedure. An analytical model of the test structure was created using the modeling procedure and imposed displacement analyses were used to reproduce the tests with the analytical model of the test structure. Good agreement was found at the global and local level. The model reproduced reasonably well the story shear story drift response as well as the column, beam and connection moment rotation response, but overpredicted the inelastic deformation of the panel zone. 
    more » « less
  2. Model parameter updating can enhance the use of nonlinear structural response simulation to guide decision-making in the post-earthquake environment. Since most structures in high seismic regions are not instrumented with sensors, the response history during ground shaking is usually not available after an earthquake. Nevertheless, technologies such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and drone-mounted imaging devices have increased the feasibility of measuring residual deformations after the shaking has subsided. It is within this context that a framework for performing nonlinear structural model parameter updating based only on residual drift measurements is proposed. The considered setting is one where a structure is subjected to a sequence of ground motions (without repairs), whereby after each event, the structural model parameters are updated using a Bayesian formulation and the measured residual drift. The methodology is demonstrated by using experimental data from a reinforced concrete bridge pier subjected to six back-to-back ground motions with significant residual drifts recorded after the third, fourth and fifth records in the sequence. The results showed that the updating procedure is able to incrementally (after each record) improve the accuracy of both the concrete and steel model parameters which also enhanced the estimates of the simulated peak and residual drifts. 
    more » « less
  3. Model parameter updating can enhance the use of nonlinear structural response simulation to guide decision-making in the post-earthquake environment. Since most structures in high seismic regions are not instrumented with sensors, the response history during ground shaking is usually not available after an earthquake. Nevertheless, technologies such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and drone-mounted imaging devices have increased the feasibility of measuring residual deformations after the shaking has subsided. It is within this context that a framework for performing nonlinear structural model parameter updating based only on residual drift measurements is proposed. The considered setting is one where a structure is subjected to a sequence of ground motions (without repairs), whereby after each event, the structural model parameters are updated using a Bayesian formulation and the measured residual drift. The methodology is demonstrated by using experimental data from a reinforced concrete bridge pier subjected to six back-to-back ground motions with significant residual drifts recorded after the third, fourth and fifth records in the sequence. The results showed that the updating procedure is able to incrementally (after each record) improve the accuracy of both the concrete and steel model parameters which also enhanced the estimates of the simulated peak and residual drifts. 
    more » « less
  4. API 5L Grade X65 steel pipes, internally clad alloy 625, are commonly utilized in pipelines and risers for subsea oil and gas extraction. Gird welds in such pipes are conventionally made using alloy 625 filler metal. However, alloy 625 weld metal cannot meet the base metal yield strength overmatching requirement for subsea reel lay installation. This study explored materials selection and process development for low-alloy steel girth welds in API 5L Grade X65 steel pipes, internally clad with alloy 625. Welding with a higher melting point filler metal over a lower melting substrate, i.e., low-alloy steel over Ni-based alloy, is impractical due to increased susceptibility to solidification cracking and solidification shrinkage porosity. Pseudo-binary phase diagrams developed for various combinations of low alloy steel filler metals and Ni-based alloy substrates identified good compatibility between ER80S-G filler metal and alloy 686. The solidification temperature range and the tendency for partitioning of alloying elements were significantly lower throughout the entire ER80S-G/alloy 686 dilution range than in the low alloy steel filler metals/alloy 625 combinations. Extensive process optimization effort to reduce the dilution of alloy 686 root pass in the low-alloy steel weld metal and avoid incomplete fusion defects allowed for the production of defect-free girth welds. These welds met the yield strength and ductility requirements for subsea reel lay installation of pipelines. Process optimization for bead tempering significantly narrowed the high hardness region in the ER80S-G/alloy 686 partially mixed zone. 
    more » « less
  5. Bayesian inference allows the transparent communication and systematic updating of model uncertainty as new data become available. When applied to material flow analysis (MFA), however, Bayesian inference is undermined by the difficulty of defining proper priors for the MFA parameters and quantifying the noise in the collected data. We start to address these issues by first deriving and implementing an expert elicitation procedure suitable for generating MFA parameter priors. Second, we propose to learn the data noise concurrent with the parametric uncertainty. These methods are demonstrated using a case study on the 2012 US steel flow. Eight experts are interviewed to elicit distributions on steel flow uncertainty from raw materials to intermediate goods. The experts’ distributions are combined and weighted according to the expertise demonstrated in response to seeding questions. These aggregated distributions form our model parameters’ informative priors. Sensible, weakly informative priors are adopted for learning the data noise. Bayesian inference is then performed to update the parametric and data noise uncertainty given MFA data collected from the United States Geological Survey and the World Steel Association. The results show a reduction in MFA parametric uncertainty when incorporating the collected data. Only a modest reduction in data noise uncertainty was observed using 2012 data; however, greater reductions were achieved when using data from multiple years in the inference. These methods generate transparent MFA and data noise uncertainties learned from data rather than pre-assumed data noise levels, providing a more robust basis for decision-making that affects the system. 
    more » « less