The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the global climate that is projected to weaken under future anthropogenic climate change. While many studies have investigated the AMOC’s response to different levels and types of forcing in climate models, relatively little attention has been paid to the AMOC’s sensitivity to the rate of forcing change, despite it also being highly uncertain in future emissions scenarios. In this study, I isolate the AMOC’s response to different rates of CO2increase in a state-of-the-art global climate model and find that the AMOC undergoes more severe weakening under faster rates of CO2change, even when the magnitude of CO2change is the same. I then propose an AMOC-ocean heat transport-sea ice feedback that enhances the decline of the circulation and explains the dependence on the rate of forcing change. The AMOC’s rate-sensitive behavior leads to qualitatively different climates (including differing Arctic sea ice evolution) at the same CO2concentration, highlighting how the rate of forcing change is itself a key driver of global climatic change.
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The Miocene: The Future of the Past
Abstract The Miocene epoch (23.03–5.33 Ma) was a time interval of global warmth, relative to today. Continental configurations and mountain topography transitioned toward modern conditions, and many flora and fauna evolved into the same taxa that exist today. Miocene climate was dynamic: long periods of early and late glaciation bracketed a ∼2 Myr greenhouse interval—the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO). Floras, faunas, ice sheets, precipitation,pCO2, and ocean and atmospheric circulation mostly (but not ubiquitously) covaried with these large changes in climate. With higher temperatures and moderately higherpCO2(∼400–600 ppm), the MCO has been suggested as a particularly appropriate analog for future climate scenarios, and for assessing the predictive accuracy of numerical climate models—the same models that are used to simulate future climate. Yet, Miocene conditions have proved difficult to reconcile with models. This implies either missing positive feedbacks in the models, a lack of knowledge of past climate forcings, or the need for re‐interpretation of proxies, which might mitigate the model‐data discrepancy. Our understanding of Miocene climatic, biogeochemical, and oceanic changes on broad spatial and temporal scales is still developing. New records documenting the physical, chemical, and biotic aspects of the Earth system are emerging, and together provide a more comprehensive understanding of this important time interval. Here, we review the state‐of‐the‐art in Miocene climate, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, ice sheet dynamics, and biotic adaptation research as inferred through proxy observations and modeling studies.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1924390
- PAR ID:
- 10567275
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Geophysical Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2572-4517
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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