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Abstract. Changes in tropical precipitation over the past millennia have usually been associated with latitudinal displacements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recent studies provide new evidence that contraction and expansion of the tropical rain belt may also have contributed to ITCZ variability on centennial timescales. Over tropical South America few records point to a similar interpretation, which prevents a clear diagnosis of ITCZ changes in the region. In order to improve our understanding of equatorial rain belt variability, our study presents a reconstruction of precipitation for the last 3200 years from the northeastern Brazil (NEB) region, an area solely influenced by ITCZ precipitation. We analyze oxygen isotopes in speleothems that serve as a faithful proxy for the past location of the southern margin of the ITCZ. Our results, in comparison with other ITCZ proxies, indicate that the range of seasonal migration, contraction, and expansion of the ITCZ was not symmetrical around the Equator on secular and multidecadal timescales. A new NEB ITCZ pattern emerges based on the comparison between two distinct proxies that characterize the ITCZ behavior during the last 2500 years, with an ITCZ zonal pattern between NEB and the eastern Amazon. In NEB, the period related to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA – 950 to 1250 CE) was characterized by an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions. These drier conditions persisted until the onset of the period corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA) in 1560 CE, representing the longest dry period over the last 3200 years in NEB. The ITCZ was apparently forced by teleconnections between Atlantic and Pacific that controlled the position, intensity, and extent of the Walker cell over South America, changing the zonal ITCZ characteristics, while sea surface temperature changes in both the Pacific and Atlantic stretched or weakened the ITCZ-related rainfall meridionally over NEB. Wetter conditions started around 1500 CE in NEB. During the last 500 years, our speleothems document the occurrence of some of the strongest drought events over the last centuries, which drastically affected population and environment of NEB during the Portuguese colonial period. The historical droughts were able to affect the karst system and led to significant impacts over the entire NEB region.
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This content will become publicly available on March 1, 2026
AMOC-forced southward migration of the ITCZ under a warm climate background
Northern northeastern Brazil (NEB) is a climate change hotspot due to its high biological and social vulnerability to ongoing and future hydroclimate changes. Precipitation in this region is influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is largely controlled by the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Accordingly, the projected weakening of the AMOC due to anthropogenic global warming may substantially change NEB hydroclimate. Heinrich Stadials (HS), past millennial-scale events during which the AMOC was significantly weaker, provide important insights into the AMOC-ITCZ dynamics. This is especially true for those HS that occurred under similar to modern boundary conditions. HS10 (ca. 110 thousand years ago) was the first HS of Marine Isotope Stage 5, providing an ideal target for investigating AMOC-ITCZ dynamics under relatively warm climate conditions. Here we investigate the response of the surface and deep western equatorial Atlantic (WEA) circulation, as well as NEB precipitation to HS10. Therefore, we use foraminiferal carbon and oxygen stable isotopes and bulk sediment major elemental data from a marine sediment core retrieved from the WEA. Our results record a weakening of the AMOC during HS10 and show a concurrent increased WEA upper stratification and precipitation over NEB. We suggest that the mechanism controlling the WEA upper ocean stratification during HS depends on the background climate. Furthermore, we infer that the southward shift of the ITCZ during HS10 was more limited if compared to the shifts that occurred under colder climate background. Our findings provide useful insights into how a weakening of the AMOC under a relatively warm climate can impact the ITCZ and tropical South American precipitation.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1812681
- PAR ID:
- 10568680
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
- Volume:
- 661
- Issue:
- C
- ISSN:
- 0031-0182
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 112705
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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