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1. Characterizing Growing Season Length of Subtropical Coniferous Forests with a Phenological Model

   https://doi.org/10.3390/f12010095  

   Gong, Yuan; Staudhammer, Christina L.; Wiesner, Susanne; Starr, Gregory; Zhang, Yinlong (January 2021, Forests)

   null (Ed.)

   Understanding plant phenological change is of great concern in the context of global climate change. Phenological models can aid in understanding and predicting growing season changes and can be parameterized with gross primary production (GPP) estimated using the eddy covariance (EC) technique. This study used nine years of EC-derived GPP data from three mature subtropical longleaf pine forests in the southeastern United States with differing soil water holding capacity in combination with site-specific micrometeorological data to parameterize a photosynthesis-based phenological model. We evaluated how weather conditions and prescribed fire led to variation in the ecosystem phenological processes. The results suggest that soil water availability had an effect on phenology, and greater soil water availability was associated with a longer growing season (LOS). We also observed that prescribed fire, a common forest management activity in the region, had a limited impact on phenological processes. Dormant season fire had no significant effect on phenological processes by site, but we observed differences in the start of the growing season (SOS) between fire and non-fire years. Fire delayed SOS by 10 d ± 5 d (SE), and this effect was greater with higher soil water availability, extending SOS by 18 d on average. Fire was also associated with increased sensitivity of spring phenology to radiation and air temperature. We found that interannual climate change and periodic weather anomalies (flood, short-term drought, and long-term drought), controlled annual ecosystem phenological processes more than prescribed fire. When water availability increased following short-term summer drought, the growing season was extended. With future climate change, subtropical areas of the Southeastern US are expected to experience more frequent short-term droughts, which could shorten the region’s growing season and lead to a reduction in the longleaf pine ecosystem’s carbon sequestration capacity. 

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2. Sublimation measurements of tundra and taiga snowpack in Alaska

   https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1739-2025  

   Stockert, Kelsey A; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Stuefer, Svetlana L (May 2025, The Cryosphere)

   na (Ed.)

   Abstract. Snow sublimation plays a fundamental role in the winter water balance. To date, few studies have quantified sublimation in tundra and boreal forest snow by direct measurements. Continuous latent heat data collected with eddy covariance (EC) measurements from 2010–2021 were used to calculate snow sublimation at six locations in northern Alaska: three Arctic tundra sites at distinct topographical and vegetation communities in the Imnavait Creek watershed on the North Slope underlain by continuous permafrost, and three lowland boreal forest/taiga sites in discontinuous permafrost in interior Alaska near Fairbanks. Mean surface sublimation rates range from 0.08–0.15 mm d−1 and 15–27 mm yr−1 at the six sites, representing, on average, 21 % of the measured solid precipitation and 8 %–16 % of the cumulative annual water vapor flux to the atmosphere (evaporation plus sublimation). The mean daily sublimation rates of the lowland boreal forest sites are higher than those of the tundra sites, but the longer snow cover period of the tundra sites leads to greater mean annual sublimation rates. We examined the potential controls, drivers, and trends of the sublimation rates by using meteorological data collected in conjunction with EC measurements. This research improves our understanding of how site conditions affect sublimation rates and highlights the fact that sublimation is a substantial component of the winter hydrologic cycle. In addition, the study contributes to the sparse literature on tundra and boreal sublimation measurements, and the measured rates are comparable to sublimation estimates in other northern climates. 

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3. Drought onset and propagation into soil moisture and grassland vegetation responses during the 2012–2019 major drought in Southern California

   https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3713-2021  

   Warter, Maria Magdalena; Singer, Michael Bliss; Cuthbert, Mark O.; Roberts, Dar; Caylor, Kelly K.; Sabathier, Romy; Stella, John (January 2021, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract. Despite clear signals of regional impacts of the recent severe drought inCalifornia, e.g., within Californian Central Valley groundwater storage and Sierra Nevada forests, our understanding of how this drought affected soil moisture and vegetation responses in lowland grasslands is limited. In order to better understand the resulting vulnerability of these landscapes to fire and ecosystem degradation, we aimed to generalize drought-induced changes in subsurface soil moisture and to explore its effects within grassland ecosystems of Southern California. We used a high-resolution in situ dataset of climate and soil moisture from two grassland sites (coastal and inland), alongside greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data from Landsat imagery, to explore drought dynamics in environments with similar precipitation but contrasting evaporative demand over the period 2008–2019. We show that negative impacts of prolonged precipitation deficits on vegetation at the coastal site were buffered by fog and moderate temperatures. During the drought, the Santa Barbara region experienced an early onset of the dry season in mid-March instead of April, resulting in premature senescence of grasses by mid-April. We developed a parsimonious soil moisture balance model that captures dynamic vegetation–evapotranspiration feedbacks and analyzed the links between climate, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness over several years of simulated drought conditions, exploring the impacts of plausible climate change scenarios that reflect changes to precipitation amounts, their seasonal distribution, and evaporative demand. The redistribution of precipitation over a shortened rainy season highlighted a strong coupling of evapotranspiration to incoming precipitation at the coastal site, while the lower water-holding capacity of soils at the inland site resulted in additional drainage occurring under this scenario. The loss of spring rains due to a shortening of the rainy season also revealed a greater impact on the inland site, suggesting less resilience to low moisture at a time when plant development is about to start. The results also suggest that the coastal site would suffer disproportionally from extended dry periods, effectively driving these areas into more extreme drought than previously seen. These sensitivities suggest potential future increases in the risk of wildfires under climate change, as well as increased grassland ecosystem vulnerability. 

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4. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Middle Rio Grande Surface Water Supplies Using a Simple Water Balance Reservoir Model

   https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-21-0025.1  

   Holmes, Robyn N.; Mayer, Alex; Gutzler, David S.; Chavira, Luis Garnica (January 2022, Earth Interactions)

   Abstract The middle Rio Grande is a vital source of water for irrigation in the region. Climate change is impacting regional hydrology and is likely to put additional stress on a water supply that is already stretched thin. To gain insight on the hydrologic effects of climate change on reservoir storage, a simple water balance model was used to simulate the Elephant Butte–Caballo Reservoir system (southern New Mexico). The water balance model was forced by hydrologic inputs generated by 97 climate simulations derived from CMIP5 global climate models, coupled to a surface hydrologic model. Results suggest that the percentage of years that reservoir releases satisfy agricultural water rights allocations over the next 50 years (2021–70) will decrease relative to the past 50 years (1971–2020). The modeling also projects an increase in multiyear drought events that hinder reservoir management strategies to maintain high storage levels. In most cases, changes in reservoir inflows from distant upstream snowmelt is projected to have a greater influence on reservoir storage and water availability downstream of the reservoirs than will changes in local evaporation and precipitation from the reservoir surfaces. 

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5. Water and Energy Balance Model GOES-PRWEB: Development and Validation

   https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030113  

   Harmsen, Eric W.; Mecikalski, John R.; Reventos, Victor J.; Álvarez Pérez, Estefanía; Uwakweh, Sopuruchi S.; Adorno García, Christie (September 2021, Hydrology)

   null (Ed.)

   In 2009, the University of Alabama-Huntsville configured their GOES satellited-based solar radiation product to include Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands (USVI), Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba. The half-hourly and daily integrated data are available at 1 km resolution for Puerto Rico and the USVI and 2 km for Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. These data made it possible to implement estimates of satellite radiation-based evapotranspiration methods on all of the islands. The use of the solar radiation data in combination with estimates of other climate parameters facilitated the development of a water and energy balance algorithm for Puerto Rico. The purpose of this paper is to describe the theoretical background and technical approach for estimating the components of the daily water and energy balance. The operational water and energy balance model is the first of its kind in Puerto Rico. Model validation results are presented for reference and actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and streamflow. Mean errors for all analyses were less than 7%. The water and energy balance model results can benefit such diverse fields as agriculture, ecology, coastal water management, human health, renewable energy development, water resources, drought monitoring, and disaster and emergency management. This research represents a preliminary step in developing a suite of gridded hydro-climate products for the Caribbean Region. 

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