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1. Biogenic carbon pool production maintains the Southern Ocean carbon sink

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2217909120  

   Huang, Yibin; Fassbender, Andrea J.; Bushinsky, Seth M. (April 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Through biological activity, marine dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is transformed into different types of biogenic carbon available for export to the ocean interior, including particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC). Each biogenic carbon pool has a different export efficiency that impacts the vertical ocean carbon gradient and drives natural air–sea carbon dioxide gas (CO₂) exchange. In the Southern Ocean (SO), which presently accounts for ~40% of the anthropogenic ocean carbon sink, it is unclear how the production of each biogenic carbon pool contributes to the contemporary air–sea CO₂exchange. Based on 107 independent observations of the seasonal cycle from 63 biogeochemical profiling floats, we provide the basin-scale estimate of distinct biogenic carbon pool production. We find significant meridional variability with enhanced POC production in the subantarctic and polar Antarctic sectors and enhanced DOC production in the subtropical and sea-ice-dominated sectors. PIC production peaks between 47°S and 57°S near the “great calcite belt.” Relative to an abiotic SO, organic carbon production enhances CO₂uptake by 2.80 ± 0.28 Pg C y⁻¹, while PIC production diminishes CO₂uptake by 0.27 ± 0.21 Pg C y⁻¹. Without organic carbon production, the SO would be a CO₂source to the atmosphere. Our findings emphasize the importance of DOC and PIC production, in addition to the well-recognized role of POC production, in shaping the influence of carbon export on air–sea CO₂exchange. 

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2. Strong Southern Ocean carbon uptake evident in airborne observations

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi4355  

   Long, Matthew C.; Stephens, Britton B.; McKain, Kathryn; Sweeney, Colm; Keeling, Ralph F.; Kort, Eric A.; Morgan, Eric J.; Bent, Jonathan D.; Chandra, Naveen; Chevallier, Frederic; et al (December 2021, Science)

   The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), yet estimates of air-sea CO 2 flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO 2 gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO 2 gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 ( P co 2 )–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations. 

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3. Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake

   https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019  

   Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Yeager, Stephen G.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C. (January 2019, Earth System Dynamics)

   Abstract. Interannual variations in air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) impactthe global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest thatthese variations may be predictable in the near term (from a year to a decadein advance). Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-termpredictability and predictive skill in air–sea CO₂ flux on global andregional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadalforecasts of an Earth system model. These forecasts exhibit the potential topredict year-to-year variations in the globally integrated air–sea CO₂flux several years in advance, as indicated by the high correlation of theforecasts with a model reconstruction of past CO₂ flux evolution. Thispotential predictability exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge ofvariations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast, with thelongest-lasting forecast enhancement in the subantarctic Southern Ocean andthe northern North Atlantic. Potential predictability in CO₂ fluxvariations is largely driven by predictability in the surface ocean partialpressure of CO₂, which itself is a function of predictability in surfaceocean dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. The potentialpredictability, however, is not realized as predictive skill, as indicated bythe moderate to low correlation of the forecasts with anobservationally based CO₂ flux product. Nevertheless, our results suggestthat year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake have the potential to bepredicted well in advance and establish a precedent for forecasting air–seaCO₂ flux in the near future. 

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4. The Importance of Contemporaneous Wind and p CO ₂ Measurements for Regional Air‐Sea CO ₂ Flux Estimates

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020744  

   Nickford, S; Palter, J B; Mu, L (June 2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans)

   Abstract Few observational platforms are able to sustain direct measurements of all the key variables needed in the bulk calculation of air‐sea carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange, a capability newly established for some Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs). Western boundary currents are particularly challenging observational regions due to strong variability and dangerous sea states but are also known hot spots for CO₂uptake, making air‐sea exchange quantification in this region both difficult and important. Here, we present new observations collected by Saildrone USVs in the Gulf Stream during the winters of 2019 and 2022. We compared Saildrone data across co‐located vehicles and against the Pioneer Array moorings to validate the data quality. We explored how CO₂flux estimates differ when all variables needed to calculate fluxes from the bulk formulas are simultaneously measured on the same platform, relative to the situation where in situ observations must be combined with publicly‐available data products. We systematically replaced variables in the bulk formula with those often used for local and regional flux estimates. The analysis revealed that when using the ERA‐5 reanalysis wind speed in place of in situ observations, the ocean uptake of CO₂is underestimated by 8%; this underestimate grows to 9% if the NOAA Marine Boundary Layer atmospheric CO₂product and ERA‐5 significant wave height are also used in place of in situ observations. Overall our findings point to the importance of collecting contemporaneous observations of wind speed and oceanpCO₂to reduce biases in estimates of regional CO₂flux, especially during high wind events. 

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5. Magnitude, Trends, and Variability of the Global Ocean Carbon Sink From 1985 to 2018

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007780  

   DeVries, Tim; Yamamoto, Kana; Wanninkhof, Rik; Gruber, Nicolas; Hauck, Judith; Müller, Jens Daniel; Bopp, Laurent; Carroll, Dustin; Carter, Brendan; Chau, Thi‐Tuyet‐Trang; et al (October 2023, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Abstract This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation‐based products. The mean sea‐air CO₂flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr⁻¹based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO₂(pCO₂products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹of terrestrially derived CO₂, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO₂products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO₂‐driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹, respectively. This implies a climate‐forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate‐driven variability exceeding the CO₂‐forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO₂dominates the ocean CO₂sink, while climate‐driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods. 

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