Given independent standard Gaussian points v1, . . . , vn in dimension d, for what values of (n, d) does there exist with high probability an origin-symmetric ellipsoid that simultaneously passes through all of the points? This basic problem of fitting an ellipsoid to random points has connections to low-rank matrix decompositions, independent component analysis, and principal component analysis. Based on strong numerical evidence, Saunderson, Parrilo, and Willsky (Saunderson, 2011; Saunderson et al., 2013) conjectured that the ellipsoid fitting problem transitions from feasible to infeasible as the number of points n increases, with a sharp threshold at n ∼ d^2/4. We resolve this conjecture up to logarithmic factors by constructing a fitting ellipsoid for some n = d^2/polylog(d). Our proof demonstrates feasibility of the least squares construction of (Saunderson, 2011; Saunderson et al., 2013) using a convenient decomposition of a certain non-standard random matrix and a careful analysis of its Neumann expansion via the theory of graph matrices.
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This content will become publicly available on February 18, 2026
Youden's demon is Sylvester's problem
Abstract If four people with Gaussian‐distributed heights stand at Gaussian positions on the plane, the probability that there are exactly two people whose height is above the average of the four is exactly the same as the probability that they stand in convex position; both probabilities are . We show that this is a special case of a more general phenomenon: The problem of determining the position of the mean among the order statistics of Gaussian random points on the real line (Youden's demon problem) is the same as a natural generalization of Sylvester's four point problem to Gaussian points in . Our main tool is the observation that the Gale dual of independent samples in itself can be taken to be a set of independent points (translated to have barycenter at the origin) when the distribution of the points is Gaussian.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2042428
- PAR ID:
- 10573119
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Mathematika
- Volume:
- 71
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0025-5793
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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