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Linkages between extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the central and eastern United States and synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking are investigated using 1979–2015 climatologies of EPEs and upper-level potential vorticity (PV) streamers. The investigation focuses on two domains over the central and eastern United States, respectively, and emphasizes widespread EPEs, events exhibiting exceptionally large precipitation volumes. The relative frequency of PV streamers is found to be significantly enhanced relative to climatology immediately upstream of each domain during widespread EPEs. Majorities of the widespread EPEs in the central (~79%) and eastern (~56%) U.S. domains co-occur with a PV streamer positioned immediately upstream. Odds ratios of EPEs for days when a PV streamer occurs upstream of each domain indicate a strong, statistically significant association between EPEs and Rossby wave breaking. The strength of the EPE–Rossby wave breaking linkage, as measured by co-occurrence fractions and odds ratios, tends to increase with increasing EPE precipitation volume, such that the strongest linkage exists for widespread EPEs. Composite analyses reveal that Rossby wave breaking can result in widespread EPEs by establishing a persistent high-amplitude synoptic-scale wave pattern, within which strong poleward water vapor transport and ascent are forced over the EPE region immediately downstream of an elongated upper-level trough. Additional analyses demonstrate that, compared to corresponding null cases, Rossby wave breaking cases resulting in widespread EPEs exhibit a significantly higher-amplitude wave pattern that favors greater poleward transport of moist, conditionally unstable air and stronger ascent over the EPE region.
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Diagnosing Flavors of Tropospheric Rossby Wave Breaking and Their Associated Dynamical and Sensible Weather Features
Abstract Rossby wave breaking (RWB) can be manifested by the irreversible overturning of isentropes on constant potential vorticity (PV) surfaces. Traditionally, the type of breaking is categorized as anticyclonic (AWB) or cyclonic (CWB) and can be identified using the orientation of streamers of high potential temperature (θ) and lowθair on a PV surface. However, an examination of the differences in RWB structure and their associated tropospheric impacts within these types remains unexplored. In this study, AWB and CWB are identified from overturning isentropes on the dynamic tropopause (DT), defined as the 2 potential vorticity unit (PVU; 1 PVU = 10−6K kg−1m2s−1) surface, in the ERA5 dataset during December, January, and February 1979–2019. Self-organizing maps (SOM), a machine learning method, is used to cluster the identified RWB events into archetypal patterns, or “flavors,” for each type. AWB and CWB flavors capture variations in theθminima/maxima of each streamer and the localized meridionalθgradient (∇θ) flanking the streamers. Variations in the magnitude and position of ∇θbetween flavors correspond to a diversity of jet structures leading to differences in vertical motion patterns and troposphere-deep circulations. A subset of flavors of AWB (CWB) events are associated with the development of strong surface high (low) pressure systems and the generation of extreme poleward moisture transport. For CWB, many events occurred in similar geographical regions, but the precipitation and moisture patterns were vastly different between flavors. Our findings suggest that the location, type, and severity of the tropospheric impacts from RWB are strongly dictated by RWB flavor. Significance StatementLarge-scale atmospheric waves ∼15 km above Earth’s surface are responsible for the daily weather patterns that we experience. These waves can undergo wave breaking, a process that is analogous to ocean waves breaking along the seashore. Wave breaking events have been linked to extreme weather impacts at the surface including cold and heat waves, strong low pressure systems, and extreme precipitation events. Machine learning is used to identify and analyze different flavors, or patterns, of wave breaking events that result in differing surface weather impacts. Some flavors are able to generate notable channels of moisture that result in extreme high precipitation events. This is a crucial insight as forecasting of extreme weather events could be improved from this work.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2148567
- PAR ID:
- 10575495
- Publisher / Repository:
- AMS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Weather Review
- Volume:
- 152
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0027-0644
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 513 to 530
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0153.1
