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Abstract Determining conditions for earthquake slip on faults is a key goal of fault mechanics highly relevant to seismic hazard. Previous studies have demonstrated that enhanced dynamic weakening (EDW) can lead to dynamic rupture of faults with much lower shear stress than required for rupture nucleation. We study the stress conditions before earthquake ruptures of different sizes that spontaneously evolve in numerical simulations of earthquake sequences on rate‐and‐state faults with EDW due to thermal pressurization of pore fluids. We find that average shear stress right before dynamic rupture (aka shear prestress) systematically varies with the rupture size. The smallest ruptures have prestress comparable to the local shear stress required for nucleation. Larger ruptures weaken the fault more, propagate over increasingly under‐stressed areas due to dynamic stress concentration, and result in progressively lower average prestress over the entire rupture. The effect is more significant in fault models with more efficient EDW. We find that, as a result, fault models with more efficient weakening produce fewer small events and result in systematically lower b‐values of the frequency‐magnitude event distributions. The findings (a) illustrate that large earthquakes can occur on faults that appear not to be critically stressed compared to stresses required for slip nucleation; (b) highlight the importance of finite‐fault modeling in relating the local friction behavior determined in the lab to the field scale; and (c) suggest that paucity of small events or seismic quiescence may be the observational indication of mature faults that operate under low shear stress due to EDW.
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This content will become publicly available on August 21, 2025
Majority of Ruptures in Large Continental Strike-Slip Earthquakes Are Unilateral: Permissive Evidence for Hybrid Brittle-to-Dynamic Ruptures
Abstract Finite-element models of neotectonics require transform faults to rupture seismically even where preseismic shear stresses are low, presumably by dynamic-weakening mechanisms. A long-standing objection is that, if a rupture initiated at an asperity with high static friction stresses, which then transitioned to low dynamic-weakening stresses, local stress drop would be near total and on the order of 80 MPa, which is 4×–40× greater than observed. But the 5 Mw ≥ 7.8 transform earthquakes since 2000 initially ruptured on the branch faults of small net slip (Stein and Bird, 2024). If the slip initiates on a branch fault with different slip physics and no dynamic weakening, this solves the stress-drop problem. We propose that most large shallow earthquakes are hybrid ruptures, which begin on branch faults of small slip with high shear stresses, and then continue propagating on a connected dynamically weakened fault of large slip, even where shear stresses are low. One prediction of this model is that most large shallow ruptures should be unilateral. We test this prediction against the 100 largest (m ≥ 6.49) shallow continental strike-slip earthquakes 1977–2022, using information from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor and International Seismological Centre catalogs. The differences in time and location between the epicenter and the epicentroid define a horizontal “migration” velocity vector for the evolving centroid of each rupture. Early aftershock locations are summarized by a five-parameter elliptical model. Using the geometric relations between these (and mapped traces of active faults) and guided by a symmetrical decision table, we classified 55 ruptures as apparently unilateral, 30 as bilateral, and 15 as ambiguous. Our finding that a majority (55%–70%) of these ruptures are unilateral permits the interpretation that a majority of ruptures are hybrids, both in terms of geometry (branch fault to transform) and in terms of the physics of their fault slip.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1853246
- PAR ID:
- 10575551
- Publisher / Repository:
- Seismological Society of America
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Seismological Research Letters
- Volume:
- 95
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0895-0695
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 3306 to 3315
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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