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Abstract Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. To improve this understanding, we integrated a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. The gridded crop model agrees with satellite‐based estimates of evapotranspiration (R2 = 0.68), as well as survey data from the United States Department of Agriculture (R2 = 0.82–0.94 for county‐level production and 0.37–0.54 for county‐level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for the many aspects of sustainability. Our results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. These findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland; however, alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation could produce different results.
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Monthly Crop Water Consumption of Irrigated Crops in the United States From 1981 to 2019
Abstract Irrigated agriculture depends on surface water and groundwater, but we do not have a clear picture of how much water is consumed from these sources by different crops across the US over time. Current estimates of crop water consumption are insufficient in providing the spatial granularity and temporal depth required for comprehensive long‐term analysis. To fill this data gap, we utilized crop growth models to quantify the monthly crop water consumption ‐ distinguishing between rainwater, surface water, and groundwater ‐ of the 30 most widely irrigated crops in the US from 1981 to 2019 at 2.5 arc min. These 30 crops represent approximately 95% of US irrigated cropland. We found that the average annual total crop water consumption for these 30 irrigated crops in the US was 154.2 km3, 70% of which was from irrigation. Corn and alfalfa accounted for approximately 16.7 and 24.8 km3of average annual blue crop water consumption, respectively, which is nearly two‐fifths of the blue crop water consumed in the US. Surface water consumption decreased by 41.2%, while groundwater consumption increased by 6.8%, resulting in a 17.3% decline in blue water consumption between 1981 and 2019. We find good agreement between our results and existing modeled evapotranspiration (ET) products, remotely sensed ET estimates (OpenET), and water use data from the US Geological Survey and US Department of Agriculture. Our data set and model can help assess the impact of irrigation practices and water scarcity on crop production and sustainability.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2144169
- PAR ID:
- 10577157
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Volume:
- 61
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0043-1397
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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