skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: AI exposure predicts unemployment risk: A new approach to technology-driven job loss
Abstract Is AI disrupting jobs and creating unemployment? This question has stirred public concern for job stability and motivated studies assessing occupations’ automation risk. These studies used readily available employment and wage statistics to quantify occupational changes for employed workers. However, they did not directly examine unemployment dynamics primarily due to the lack of data across occupations, geography, and time. Here, we overcome this barrier using monthly occupation-level unemployment data from each US state’s unemployment insurance office from 2010 to 2020 to assess AI exposure models, job separations, and unemployment through a new measure called unemployment risk. We demonstrate that standard employment statistics are inadequate proxies for occupations’ unemployment risk and find that individual AI exposure models are poor predictors of occupations’ unemployment risk states’ total unemployment rates, and states’ total job separation rates. However, an ensemble approach exhibits substantial predictive power, accounting for an additional 18% of variation in unemployment risk across occupations, states, and time compared to a baseline model that controls for education, occupations’ skills, seasonality, and regional effects. These results suggest that competing models may capture different aspects of AI exposure and that automation shapes US unemployment. Our results demonstrate the power of occupation-specific job disruption data and that efforts using only one AI exposure score will misrepresent AI’s impact on the future of work.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2404109
PAR ID:
10582194
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Oxford University Press
Date Published:
Journal Name:
PNAS Nexus
Volume:
4
Issue:
4
ISSN:
2752-6542
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; (, PLOS ONE)
    Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich (Ed.)
    BackgroundThe fast-changing labor market highlights the need for an in-depth understanding of occupational mobility impacted by technological change. However, we lack a multidimensional classification scheme that considers similarities of occupations comprehensively, which prevents us from predicting employment trends and mobility across occupations. This study fills the gap by examining employment trends based on similarities between occupations. MethodWe first demonstrated a new method that clusters 756 occupation titles based on knowledge, skills, abilities, education, experience, training, activities, values, and interests. We used the Principal Component Analysis to categorize occupations in the Standard Occupational Classification, which is grouped into a four-level hierarchy. Then, we paired the occupation clusters with the occupational employment projections provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. We analyzed how employment would change and what factors affect the employment changes within occupation groups. Particularly, we specified factors related to technological changes. ResultsThe results reveal that technological change accounts for significant job losses in some clusters. This poses occupational mobility challenges for workers in these jobs at present. Job losses for nearly 60% of current employment will occur in low-skill, low-wage occupational groups. Meanwhile, many mid-skilled and highly skilled jobs are projected to grow in the next ten years. ConclusionOur results demonstrate the utility of our occupational classification scheme. Furthermore, it suggests a critical need for skills upgrading and workforce development for workers in declining jobs. Special attention should be paid to vulnerable workers, such as older individuals and minorities. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ; (, American Behavioral Scientist)
    Automation continues to be a disruptive force in the workforce. In particular, new automated technologies are projected to replace many mid-skill jobs, potentially displacing millions of workers. Career planning agencies and other organizations can help support workers if they are able to effectively identify optimal transition occupations for displaced workers. We drew upon the 24.2 Occupational Information Network (O*NET) Database to conduct two related studies that identify alternate occupations for truck drivers, who are at risk of job loss due to the adoption of autonomous vehicles. In Study 1, we statistically compared the jobs that we identified based on different search methods using O*NET classifications based on their similarity to the knowledge, skills, values, and interests held by truck drivers. In Study 2, we conducted a survey of truck drivers to evaluate their perceptions of the occupations identified as objectively similar to their occupation. Results indicate that optimal transition occupations may be identified by searching for occupations that share skills as well as the same work activities/industry as a given occupation. These findings hold further implications for career planning organizations and policymakers to ease workforce disruption due to automation. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; (, NBER working paper series)
    Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities in spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, job finding, and job filling within each country. This robust set of facts guides and disciplines the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quantitatively rationalizes why differences in job-separation rates have primary importance in inducing differences in unemployment across space while changes in the job-finding rate are the main driver in unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle. 
    more » « less
  4. ; (, International Conference on Information Systems)
    null (Ed.)
    Occupations, like many other social systems, are hierarchical. They evolve with other elements within the work ecosystem including technology and skills. This paper investigates the relationships among these elements using an approach that combines network theory and modular systems theory. A new method of using work related data to build occupation networks and theorize occupation evolution is proposed. Using this technique, structural properties of occupations are discovered by way of community detection on a knowledge network built from labor statistics, based on more than 900 occupations and 18,000 tasks. The occupation networks are compared across the work ecosystem as well as over time to understand the interdependencies between task components and the coevolution of occupation, tasks, technology, and skills. In addition, a set of conjectures are articulated based on the observations made from occupation structure comparison and change over time. 
    more » « less
  5. (, NBER working paper series)
    This paper describes the adoption of automation technologies by US firms across all economic sectors by leveraging a new module introduced in the 2019 Annual Business Survey, conducted by the US Census Bureau in partnership with the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES). The module collects data from over 300,000 firms on the use of five advanced technologies: AI, robotics, dedicated equipment, specialized software, and cloud computing. The adoption of these technologies remains low (especially for AI and robotics), varies substantially across industries, and concentrates on large and young firms. However, because larger firms are much more likely to adopt them, 12-64% of US workers and 22-72% of manufacturing workers are exposed to these technologies. Firms report a variety of motivations for adoption, including automating tasks previously performed by labor. Consistent with the use of these technologies for automation, adopters have higher labor productivity and lower labor shares. In particular, the use of these technologies is associated with a 11.4% higher labor productivity, which accounts for 20-30% of the difference in labor productivity between large firms and the median firm in an industry. Adopters report that these technologies raised skill requirements and led to greater demand for skilled labor but brought limited or ambiguous effects to their employment levels. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email