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This content will become publicly available on December 6, 2025

Title: Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050
Plastic production and plastic pollution have a negative effect on our environment, environmental justice, and climate change. Using detailed global and regional plastics datasets coupled with socioeconomic data, we employ machine learning to predict that, without intervention, annual mismanaged plastic waste will nearly double to 121 million metric tonnes (Mt) [100 to 139 Mt 95% confidence interval] by 2050. Annual greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic system are projected to grow by 37% to 3.35 billion tonnes CO2equivalent (3.09 to 3.54) over the same period. The United Nations plastic pollution treaty presents an opportunity to reshape these outcomes. We simulate eight candidate treaty policies and find that just four could together reduce mismanaged plastic waste by 91% (86 to 98%) and gross plastic–related greenhouse gas emissions by one-third.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1942280
PAR ID:
10587159
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
American Association for Advancement of Science
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Science
Volume:
386
Issue:
6726
ISSN:
0036-8075
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1168 to 1173
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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