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Title: Coevolution promotes the coexistence of Tasmanian devils and a fatal, transmissible cancer
Abstract Emerging infectious diseases threaten natural populations, and data-driven modeling is critical for predicting population dynamics. Despite the importance of integrating ecology and evolution in models of host–pathogen dynamics, there are few wild populations for which long-term ecological datasets have been coupled with genome-scale data. Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations have declined range wide due to devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), a fatal transmissible cancer. Although early ecological models predicted imminent devil extinction, diseased devil populations persist at low densities, and recent ecological models predict long-term devil persistence. Substantial evidence supports the evolution of both devils and DFTD, suggesting coevolution may also influence continued devil persistence. Thus, we developed an individual-based, eco-evolutionary model of devil–DFTD coevolution parameterized with nearly 2 decades of devil demography, DFTD epidemiology, and genome-wide association studies. We characterized potential devil–DFTD coevolutionary outcomes and predicted the effects of coevolution on devil persistence and devil–DFTD coexistence. We found a high probability of devil persistence over 50 devil generations (100 years) and a higher likelihood of devil–DFTD coexistence, with greater devil recovery than predicted by previous ecological models. These novel results add to growing evidence for long-term devil persistence and highlight the importance of eco-evolutionary modeling for emerging infectious diseases.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2324456 2324455
PAR ID:
10587644
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ;
Editor(s):
Ashby, Ben; Wolf, Jason
Publisher / Repository:
Oxford Academic
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Evolution
Volume:
79
Issue:
1
ISSN:
0014-3820
Page Range / eLocation ID:
100 to 118
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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