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Abstract For many long‐lived taxa, such as trees and corals, older, and larger individuals often have the lowest mortality and highest fecundity. However, climate change‐driven disturbances such as droughts and heatwaves may fundamentally alter typical size‐dependent patterns of mortality and reproduction in these important foundation taxa. Working in Moorea, French Polynesia, we investigated how a marine heatwave in 2019, one of the most intense marine heatwaves at our sites over the past 30 years, drove patterns of coral bleaching and mortality. The marine heatwave drove island‐wide mass coral bleaching that killed up to 76% and 65% of the largest individuals of the two dominant coral genera,PocilloporaandAcropora, respectively. Colonies ofPocilloporaandAcropora≥30 cm diameter were ~3.5× and ~1.3×, respectively, more likely to die than colonies <30‐cm diameter. Typically, annual mortality in these corals is concentrated on the smallest size classes. Yet, this heatwave dramatically reshaped this pattern, with heat stress disproportionately killing larger coral colonies and equalizing annual mortality rates across the size spectrum. This shift in the size‐mortality relationship reduced the overall fecundity of these genera by >60% because big corals are disproportionately important for reproduction on reefs. Additionally, the survivorship of microscopic coral recruits, critical for the recovery of corals following disturbances, declined to 2%, over an order of magnitude lower compared to a year without elevated thermal stress, where 33% of coral recruits survived. While other research has shown that larger corals can bleach more frequently than smaller corals, we show the severe impact this phenomenon can have at the reef‐wide scale. As marine heatwaves become more frequent and intense, disproportionate mortality of the largest, most fecund corals and near‐complete loss of entire cohorts of newly‐settled coral recruits will likely reduce the recovery capacity of these iconic ecosystems.
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This content will become publicly available on January 22, 2026
Geographical patterns of intraspecific genetic diversity reflect the adaptive potential of the coral Pocillopora damicornis species complex
Marine heatwaves are increasing in intensity and frequency however, responses and survival of reef corals vary geographically. Geographical differences in thermal tolerance may be in part a consequence of intraspecific diversity, where high-diversity localities are more likely to support heat-tolerant alleles that promote survival through thermal stress. Here, we assessed geographical patterns of intraspecific genetic diversity in the ubiquitous coralPocillopora damicornisspecies complex using 428 sequences of the Internal Transcribed Spacer 2 (ITS2) region across 44 sites in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. We focused on detecting genetic diversity hotspots, wherein some individuals are likely to possess gene variants that tolerate marine heatwaves. A deep-learning, multi-layer neural-network model showed that geographical location played a major role in intraspecific diversity, with mean sea-surface temperature and oceanic regions being the most influential predictor variables differentiating diversity. The highest estimate of intraspecific variation was recorded in French Polynesia and Southeast Asia. The corals on these reefs are more likely than corals elsewhere to harbor alleles with adaptive potential to survive climate change, so managers should prioritize high-diversity regions when forming conservation goals.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2048319
- PAR ID:
- 10588776
- Editor(s):
- Tavakoli-Kolour, Parviz
- Publisher / Repository:
- PLOS ONE
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PLOS ONE
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1932-6203
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e0316380
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- coral diversity genetic diversity, within-population diversity
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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