skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Range expansions across landscapes with quenched noise
When biological populations expand into new territory, the evolutionary outcomes can be strongly influenced by genetic drift, the random fluctuations in allele frequencies. Meanwhile, spatial variability in the environment can also significantly influence the competition between subpopulations vying for space. Little is known about the interplay of these intrinsic and extrinsic sources of noise in population dynamics: When does environmental heterogeneity dominate over genetic drift or vice versa, and what distinguishes their population genetics signatures? Here, in the context of neutral evolution, we examine the interplay between a population’s intrinsic, demographic noise and an extrinsic, quenched random noise provided by a heterogeneous environment. Using a multispecies Eden model, we simulate a population expanding over a landscape with random variations in local growth rates and measure how this variability affects genealogical tree structure, and thus genetic diversity. We find that, for strong heterogeneity, the genetic makeup of the expansion front is to a great extent predetermined by the set of fastest paths through the environment. The landscape-dependent statistics of these optimal paths then supersede those of the population’s intrinsic noise as the main determinant of evolutionary dynamics. Remarkably, the statistics for coalescence of genealogical lineages, derived from those deterministic paths, strongly resemble the statistics emerging from demographic noise alone in uniform landscapes. This cautions interpretations of coalescence statistics and raises new challenges for inferring past population dynamics.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2112675 1547848
PAR ID:
10591648
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
PNAS
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume:
121
Issue:
34
ISSN:
0027-8424
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Background Disentangling the drivers of genetic differentiation is one of the cornerstones in evolution. This is because genetic diversity, and the way in which it is partitioned within and among populations across space, is an important asset for the ability of populations to adapt and persist in changing environments. We tested three major hypotheses accounting for genetic differentiation—isolation-by-distance (IBD), isolation-by-environment (IBE) and isolation-by-resistance (IBR)—in the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana across the Iberian Peninsula, the region with the largest genomic diversity. To that end, we sampled, genotyped with genome-wide SNPs, and analyzed 1772 individuals from 278 populations distributed across the Iberian Peninsula. Results IBD, and to a lesser extent IBE, were the most important drivers of genetic differentiation in A. thaliana . In other words, dispersal limitation, genetic drift, and to a lesser extent local adaptation to environmental gradients, accounted for the within- and among-population distribution of genetic diversity. Analyses applied to the four Iberian genetic clusters, which represent the joint outcome of the long demographic and adaptive history of the species in the region, showed similar results except for one cluster, in which IBR (a function of landscape heterogeneity) was the most important driver of genetic differentiation. Using spatial hierarchical Bayesian models, we found that precipitation seasonality and topsoil pH chiefly accounted for the geographic distribution of genetic diversity in Iberian A. thaliana . Conclusions Overall, the interplay between the influence of precipitation seasonality on genetic diversity and the effect of restricted dispersal and genetic drift on genetic differentiation emerges as the major forces underlying the evolutionary trajectory of Iberian A. thaliana . 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract Can knowledge about genome architecture inform biogeographic and phylogenetic inference? Selection, drift, recombination, and gene flow interact to produce a genomic landscape of divergence wherein patterns of differentiation and genealogy vary nonrandomly across the genomes of diverging populations. For instance, genealogical patterns that arise due to gene flow should be more likely to occur on smaller chromosomes, which experience high recombination, whereas those tracking histories of geographic isolation (reduced gene flow caused by a barrier) and divergence should be more likely to occur on larger and sex chromosomes. In Amazonia, populations of many bird species diverge and introgress across rivers, resulting in reticulated genomic signals. Herein, we used reduced representation genomic data to disentangle the evolutionary history of 4 populations of an Amazonian antbird, Thamnophilus aethiops, whose biogeographic history was associated with the dynamic evolution of the Madeira River Basin. Specifically, we evaluate whether a large river capture event ca. 200 Ka, gave rise to reticulated genealogies in the genome by making spatially explicit predictions about isolation and gene flow based on knowledge about genomic processes. We first estimated chromosome-level phylogenies and recovered 2 primary topologies across the genome. The first topology (T1) was most consistent with predictions about population divergence and was recovered for the Z-chromosome. The second (T2), was consistent with predictions about gene flow upon secondary contact. To evaluate support for these topologies, we trained a convolutional neural network to classify our data into alternative diversification models and estimate demographic parameters. The best-fit model was concordant with T1 and included gene flow between non-sister taxa. Finally, we modeled levels of divergence and introgression as functions of chromosome length and found that smaller chromosomes experienced higher gene flow. Given that (1) genetrees supporting T2 were more likely to occur on smaller chromosomes and (2) we found lower levels of introgression on larger chromosomes (and especially the Z-chromosome), we argue that T1 represents the history of population divergence across rivers and T2 the history of secondary contact due to barrier loss. Our results suggest that a significant portion of genomic heterogeneity arises due to extrinsic biogeographic processes such as river capture interacting with intrinsic processes associated with genome architecture. Future phylogeographic studies would benefit from accounting for genomic processes, as different parts of the genome reveal contrasting, albeit complementary histories, all of which are relevant for disentangling the intricate geogenomic mechanisms of biotic diversification. [Amazonia; biogeography; demographic modeling; gene flow; gene tree; genome architecture; geogenomics; introgression; linked selection; neural network; phylogenomic; phylogeography; reproductive isolation; speciation; species tree.] 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract In a genetically admixed population, admixed individuals possess genealogical and genetic ancestry from multiple source groups. Under a mechanistic model of admixture, we study the number of distinct ancestors from the source populations that the admixture represents. Combining a mechanistic admixture model with a recombination model that describes the probability that a genealogical ancestor is a genetic ancestor, for a member of a genetically admixed population, we count genetic ancestors from the source populations—those genealogical ancestors from the source populations who contribute to the genome of the modern admixed individual. We compare patterns in the numbers of genealogical and genetic ancestors across the generations. To illustrate the enumeration of genetic ancestors from source populations in an admixed group, we apply the model to the African-American population, extending recent results on the numbers of African and European genealogical ancestors that contribute to the pedigree of an African-American chosen at random, so that we also evaluate the numbers of African and European genetic ancestors who contribute to random African-American genomes. The model suggests that the autosomal genome of a random African-American born in the interval 1960–1965 contains genetic contributions from a mean of 162 African (standard deviation 47, interquartile range 127–192) and 32 European ancestors (standard deviation 14, interquartile range 21–43). The enumeration of genetic ancestors can potentially be performed in other diploid species in which admixture and recombination models can be specified. 
    more » « less
  4. Editorial Board, Editor; Executive Editor, Rachel Shekar; Assistant Editor, Rhea Bruno; Co-Founding Editor Harry Smith FRS, University of; Reviews Editor Danielle Way, Australian National (Ed.)
    Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics (urn:x-wiley:13541013:media:gcb16041:gcb16041-math-0001). We identify the dependence of urn:x-wiley:13541013:media:gcb16041:gcb16041-math-0002 on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on urn:x-wiley:13541013:media:gcb16041:gcb16041-math-0003. We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long‐term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate‐driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate‐driven signals in population dynamics (). We identify the dependence ofon the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on. We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research. 
    more » « less