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We build on previous research describing correlative links between changes in the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a foundational zooplankton species of the pelagic food web, and diminishing recruitment of young-of-year American lobster (Homarus americanus) to benthic nurseries in the Gulf of Maine. Using parallel 31-year time series of lobster larvae and zooplankton collected on the New Hampshire coast between 1988 and 2018, we investigated how changes in phenology of stage I larval lobster and their putative copepod prey, C. finmarchicus, affect their temporal overlap and potential to interact during the larval season. We found that over the time series both the lobster egg hatch and first appearance of larvae began earlier in the season, a trend significantly correlated with ocean warming. The last appearance of larvae in late summer has been delayed, however, thereby extending the larval season. Even with the longer larval lobster season, the C. finmarchicus season has increasingly been ending before the peak abundance of stage I lobster larvae. The net effect is a widening mismatch in phenology of the two species, an outcome consistent with the hypothesis that changes in abundance and phenology of C. finmarchicus have contributed to recent declines in lobster recruitment.
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This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2026
Shifting phenology as a key driver of shelf zooplankton population variability
Abstract The timing of biological events, known as phenology, plays a key role in shaping ecosystem dynamics, and climate change can significantly alter these timings. The Gulf of Maine on the Northeast U.S. Shelf is vulnerable to warming temperatures and other climate impacts, which could affect the distribution and production of plankton species sensitive to phenological shifts. In this study, we apply a novel data‐driven modeling approach to long‐term datasets to understand the population variability ofCalanus finmarchicus, a lipid‐rich copepod that is fundamental to the Gulf of Maine food web. Our results reveal how phenology impacts the complex intermingling of top‐down and bottom‐up controls. We find that early initiation of the annual phytoplankton bloom prompts an early start to the reproductive season for populations ofC. finmarchicusin the inner Gulf of Maine, resulting in high spring abundance. This spring condition appears to be conducive to enhanced predation pressure later in the season, consequently resulting in overall lowC. finmarchicusabundance in the fall. These biologically controlled dynamics are less pronounced in the outer Gulf of Maine, where water exchanges near the boundary have a greater influence. Our analysis augments existing hypotheses in fisheries oceanography and classical ecological theory by considering unique plankton life‐history characteristics and shelf sea dynamics, offering new insights into the biological factors drivingC. finmarchicusvariability.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2322676
- PAR ID:
- 10592031
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Limnology and Oceanography
- Volume:
- 70
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0024-3590
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 178 to 188
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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