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Fine scale data collection on vulnerability metrics is necessary for just policy outcomes. Those most likely to be disproportionately affected by specific climate risks should be identified early so that the needs of vulnerable communities (especially historically marginalized communities) can be addressed and mitigated in accordance with climate justice principles. While there is a growing body of event-specific and place-based studies, systematic studies on coastal populations at risk have typically not applied equity principles and have often ignored attributes such as race and ethnic composition, age structure, urban/rural classification, and housing tenure. Additionally, assumptions about future population trends depend on understanding past spatial patterns of change, as well as demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the populations at risk, especially considering increasing coastal hazards. Yet, with few exceptions, research on coastal vulnerability has not analyzed changes in exposure over time and has not systematically addressed implications for communities of color over time. This paper seeks to fill these gaps. In this paper, using an equity lens and spatial demographic methods with the finest-resolution data available (census blocks), we estimate the extent of exposure and population change from 1990 to 2020 in the low elevation coastal zone in the continental United States. We find that the population of the LECZ has increased during this period, primarily by the growth of the urban population which has risen from about 22 million to 31 million persons. From 2000 to 2020, the urban population consistently grew at higher rates inside the LECZ than outside of it, reversing the pattern from the decade prior. We also examine changes in the population by race and Hispanic origin, urban and rural status, and a set of more expansive vulnerability themes. Our estimates, tabulated by counties and states, reveal the concentration and characteristics of exposure and changes to it over the past 30 years. Key findings include: residents of the LECZ are much older than average; Black residents are overrepresented in renter-occupied housing units in the urban LECZ; and from 2000 to 2020, Hispanic population growth was much higher in urban LECZ areas than urban areas elsewhere. These systematic insights into the demographic attributes of the populations most at risk of sea-level rise and associated coastal hazards can be used to ensure adaptation, mitigation, and disaster-related policies are tailored to the specific needs of these communities and actors at local, regional, and national scales. It also showcases how spatial methods can be used to understand demographic change and be put in place for future estimates of population in non-traditional units (e.g., coastal zones or other environmentally-vulnerable areas).
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High‐Resolution Modeling and Projecting Local Dynamics of Differential Vulnerability to Urban Heat Stress
Abstract Climate change‐induced heat stress has significant effects on human health, and is influenced by a wide variety of factors. Most assessments of future heat‐related risks however are based on coarse resolution projections of heat hazards and overlook the contribution of relevant factors other than climate change to the negative impacts on health. Research highlights sociodemographic disparities related to heat stress vulnerability, especially among older adults, women and individuals with low socioeconomic status, leading to higher morbidity and mortality rates. There is thus an urgent need for detailed, local information on demographic characteristics underlying vulnerability with refined spatial resolution. This study aims to address the research gaps by presenting a new population projection exercise at high‐resolution based on the Bayesian modeling framework for the case study of Madrid, using demographic data under the scenarios compatible with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of population subgroups at the intra‐urban level within Madrid. Our findings reveal a concentration of vulnerable populations, as measured by their age, sex and educational attainment level in some of the city's most disadvantaged neighborhoods. These vulnerable clusters are projected to widen in the future unless a sustainable trajectory is realized, driving vulnerability dynamics toward a more uniform and resilient change. These results can guide local adaptation efforts and support climate justice initiatives to protect vulnerable communities in urban environments.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2239859
- PAR ID:
- 10596074
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2328-4277
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004431
