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Bat‐borne pathogens are a threat to global health and in recent history have had major impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Examples include diseases such as rabies, Nipah virus encephalitis, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Climate change may exacerbate the emergence of bat‐borne pathogens by affecting the ecology of bats in tropical ecosystems. Here, we report the impacts of climate change on the distributional ecology of the common vampire batDesmodus rotundusacross the last century. Our retrospective analysis revealed a positive relationship between changes in climate and the northern expansion of the distribution ofD. rotundusin North America. Furthermore, we also found a reduction in the standard deviation of temperatures atD. rotunduscapture locations during the last century, expressed as more consistent, less‐seasonal climate in recent years. These results elucidate an association betweenD. rotundusrange expansion and a continental‐level rise in rabies virus spillover transmission fromD. rotundusto cattle in the last 50 years of the 120‐year study period. This correlative study, based on field observations, offers empirical evidence supporting previous statistical and mathematical simulation‐based studies reporting a likely increase of bat‐borne diseases in response to climate change. We conclude that theD. rotundusrabies system exemplifies the consequences of climate change augmentation at the wildlife–livestock–human interface, demonstrating how global change acts upon these complex and interconnected systems to drive increased disease emergence.
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This content will become publicly available on December 1, 2026
Future climate change and the distributional shift of the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus
Abstract Interactions among humans, livestock, and wildlife within disturbed ecosystems, such as those impacted by climate change, can facilitate pathogen spillover transmission and increase disease emergence risks. The study of future climate change impacts on the distribution of free-ranging bats is therefore relevant for forecasting potential disease burden. This study used current and future climate data and historic occurrence locations of the vampire bat speciesDesmodus rotundus, a reservoir of the rabies virus to assess the potential impacts of climate change on disease reservoir distribution. Analyses included a comprehensive comparison of different climate change periods, carbon emission scenarios, and global circulation models (GCMs) on final model outputs. Models revealed that, although climatic scenarios and GCMs used have a significant influence on model outputs, there was a consistent signal of range expansion across the future climates analyzed. Areas suitable forD. rotundusrange expansion include the southern United States and south-central portions of Argentina and Chile. Certain areas in the Amazon Rainforest, which currently rests at the geographic center ofD. rotundus’ range, may become climatically unsuitable for this species within the context of niche conservatism. While the impacts of rabies virus transmitted byD. rotunduson livestock are well known, an expansion ofD. rotundusinto novel areas may impact new mammalian species and livestock with unexpected consequences. Some areas in the Americas may benefit from an assessment of their preparedness to deal with an expectedD. rotundusrange expansion.
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- PAR ID:
- 10596840
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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