Pathogen spillover corresponds to the transmission of a pathogen or parasite from an original host species to a novel host species, preluding disease emergence. Understanding the interacting factors that lead to pathogen transmission in a zoonotic cycle could help identify novel hosts of pathogens and the patterns that lead to disease emergence. We hypothesize that ecological and biogeographic factors drive host encounters, infection susceptibility, and cross‐species spillover transmission. Using a rodent–ectoparasite system in the Neotropics, with shared ectoparasite associations as a proxy for ecological interaction between rodent species, we assessed relationships between rodents using geographic range, phylogenetic relatedness, and ectoparasite associations to determine the roles of generalist and specialist hosts in the transmission cycle of hantavirus. A total of 50 rodent species were ranked on their centrality in a network model based on ectoparasites sharing. Geographic proximity and phylogenetic relatedness were predictors for rodents to share ectoparasite species and were associated with shorter network path distance between rodents through shared ectoparasites. The rodent–ectoparasite network model successfully predicted independent data of seven known hantavirus hosts. The model predicted five novel rodent species as potential, unrecognized hantavirus hosts in South America. Findings suggest that ectoparasite data, geographic range, and phylogenetic relatedness of wildlife species could help predict novel hosts susceptible to infection and possible transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Hantavirus is a high‐consequence zoonotic pathogen with documented animal‐to‐animal, animal‐to‐human, and human‐to‐human transmission. Predictions of new rodent hosts can guide active epidemiological surveillance in specific areas and wildlife species to mitigate hantavirus spillover transmission risk from rodents to humans. This study supports the idea that ectoparasite relationships among rodents are a proxy of host species interactions and can inform transmission cycles of diverse pathogens circulating in wildlife disease systems, including wildlife viruses with epidemic potential, such as hantavirus.
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Abstract -
Mpox is an emerging, infectious disease that has caused outbreaks in at least 91 countries from May to August 2022. We assessed the link between international air travel patterns and Mpox transmission risk, and the relationship between the translocation of Mpox and human mobility dynamics after travel restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic had been lifted. Our three novel observations were that: i) more people traveled internationally after the removal of travel restrictions in the summer of 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels; ii) countries with a high concentration of global air travel have the most recorded Mpox cases; and iii) Mpox transmission includes a number of previously nonendemic regions. These results suggest that international airports should be a primary location for monitoring the risk of emerging communicable diseases. Findings highlight the need for global collaboration concerning proactive measures emphasizing realtime surveillance.
Free, publicly-accessible full text available January 30, 2025 -
Bat‐borne pathogens are a threat to global health and in recent history have had major impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Examples include diseases such as rabies, Nipah virus encephalitis, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Climate change may exacerbate the emergence of bat‐borne pathogens by affecting the ecology of bats in tropical ecosystems. Here, we report the impacts of climate change on the distributional ecology of the common vampire bat
Desmodus rotundus across the last century. Our retrospective analysis revealed a positive relationship between changes in climate and the northern expansion of the distribution ofD. rotundus in North America. Furthermore, we also found a reduction in the standard deviation of temperatures atD. rotundus capture locations during the last century, expressed as more consistent, less‐seasonal climate in recent years. These results elucidate an association betweenD. rotundus range expansion and a continental‐level rise in rabies virus spillover transmission fromD. rotundus to cattle in the last 50 years of the 120‐year study period. This correlative study, based on field observations, offers empirical evidence supporting previous statistical and mathematical simulation‐based studies reporting a likely increase of bat‐borne diseases in response to climate change. We conclude that theD. rotundus rabies system exemplifies the consequences of climate change augmentation at the wildlife–livestock–human interface, demonstrating how global change acts upon these complex and interconnected systems to drive increased disease emergence.Free, publicly-accessible full text available October 26, 2024