Abstract We present the current state of models for the z ∼ 3 carbon monoxide (CO) line intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection and previous CO (1–0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers k = 0.051–0.62 Mpc −1 represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO (1–0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude A clust ≲ 70 μ K 2 greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of 420 μ K 2 reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at k ∼ 1 Mpc −1 . The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity–bias product, Tb 2 ≲ 50 μ K 2 , and the cosmic molecular gas density, ρ H2 < 2.5 × 10 8 M ⊙ Mpc −3 (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the 5 yr Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise ratio of 9–17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO–galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star formation and galaxy evolution history. 
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                    This content will become publicly available on November 1, 2025
                            
                            COMAP Pathfinder – Season 2 results: III. Implications for cosmic molecular gas content at z ~ 3
                        
                    
    
            The Carbon monOxide Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder survey continues to demonstrate the feasibility of line-intensity mapping using high-redshift carbon monoxide (CO) line emission traced at cosmological scales. The latest COMAP Pathfinder power spectrum analysis is based on observations through the end of Season 2, covering the first three years of Pathfinder operations. We use our latest constraints on the CO(1–0) line-intensity power spectrum atz~ 3 to update corresponding constraints on the cosmological clustering of CO line emission and thus the cosmic molecular gas content at a key epoch of galaxy assembly. We first mirror the COMAP Early Science interpretation, considering how Season 2 results translate to limits on the shot noise power of CO fluctuations and the bias of CO emission as a tracer of the underlying dark matter distribution. The COMAP Season 2 results place the most stringent limits on the CO tracer bias to date, at ⟨T b⟩ < 4.8 μK, which translates to a molecular gas density upper limit ofρH2< 1.6 × 108M⊙Mpc−3atz~ 3 given additional model assumptions. These limits narrow the model space significantly compared to previous CO line-intensity mapping results while maintaining consistency with small-volume interferometric surveys of resolved line candidates. The results also express a weak preference for CO emission models used to guide fiducial forecasts from COMAP Early Science, including our data-driven priors. We also consider directly constraining a model of the halo–CO connection, and show qualitative hints of capturing the total contribution of faint CO emitters through the improved sensitivity of COMAP data. With continued observations and matching improvements in analysis, the COMAP Pathfinder remains on track for a detection of cosmological clustering of CO emission. 
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                            - Award ID(s):
- 2206834
- PAR ID:
- 10597140
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- EDP Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Astronomy & Astrophysics
- Volume:
- 691
- ISSN:
- 0004-6361
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- A337
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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