skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


This content will become publicly available on May 3, 2026

Title: Spectral Representation for Causal Estimation with Hidden Confounders
We study the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of unobserved confounders, focusing on two settings: instrumental variable (IV) regression with additional observed confounders, and proxy causal learning. Our approach uses a singular value decomposition of a conditional expectation operator combined with a saddle-point optimization method. In the IV regression setting, this can be viewed as a neural network generalization of the seminal approach due to Darolles et al. (2011). Saddle-point formulations have recently gained attention because they mitigate the double-sampling bias and are compatible with modern function approximation methods. We provide experimental validation across various settings and show that our approach outperforms existing methods on common benchmarks.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2401391 2403240
PAR ID:
10600596
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Editor(s):
Li, Yingzhen; Mandt, Stephan; Agrawal, Shipra; Khan, Emtiyaz
Publisher / Repository:
PMLR
Date Published:
Volume:
258
Page Range / eLocation ID:
2719-2727
Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
Spectral Representation, Causal Decision Inference Confounder
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Saddle-point problems appear in various settings including machine learning, zero-sum stochastic games, and regression problems. We consider decomposable saddle-point problems and study an extension of the alternating direction method of multipliers to such saddle-point problems. Instead of solving the original saddle-point problem directly, this algorithm solves smaller saddle-point problems by exploiting the decomposable structure. We show the convergence of this algorithm for convex-concave saddle-point problems under a mild assumption. We also provide a sufficient condition for which the assumption holds. We demonstrate the convergence properties of the saddle-point alternating direction method of multipliers with numerical examples on a power allocation problem in communication channels and a network routing problem with adversarial costs. 
    more » « less
  2. Valid causal inference in observational studies often requires controlling for confounders. However, in practice measurements of confounders may be noisy, and can lead to biased estimates of causal effects. We show that we can reduce bias induced by measurement noise using a large number of noisy measurements of the underlying confounders. We propose the use of matrix factorization to infer the confounders from noisy covariates. This flexible and principled framework adapts to missing values, accommodates a wide variety of data types, and can enhance a wide variety of causal inference methods. We bound the error for the induced average treatment effect estimator and show it is consistent in a linear regression setting, using Exponential Family Matrix Completion preprocessing. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure in numerical experiments with both synthetic data and real clinical data. 
    more » « less
  3. Summary Point processes are probabilistic tools for modelling event data. While there exists a fast-growing literature on the relationships between point processes, how such relationships connect to causal effects remains unexplored. In the presence of unmeasured confounders, parameters from point process models do not necessarily have causal interpretations. We propose an instrumental variable method for causal inference with point process treatment and outcome. We define causal quantities based on potential outcomes and establish nonparametric identification results with a binary instrumental variable. We extend the traditional Wald estimation to deal with point process treatment and outcome, showing that it should be performed after a Fourier transform of the intention-to-treat effects on the treatment and outcome, and thus takes the form of deconvolution. We refer to this approach as generalized Wald estimation and propose an estimation strategy based on well-established deconvolution methods. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Many real-world decision-making tasks require learning causal relationships between a set of variables. Traditional causal discovery methods, however, require that all variables are observed, which is often not feasible in practical scenarios. Without additional assumptions about the unobserved variables, it is not possible to recover any causal relationships from observational data. Fortunately, in many applied settings, additional structure among the confounders can be expected. In particular, pervasive confounding is commonly encountered and has been utilised for consistent causal estimation in linear causal models. In this article, we present a provably consistent method to estimate causal relationships in the nonlinear, pervasive confounding setting. The core of our procedure relies on the ability to estimate the confounding variation through a simple spectral decomposition of the observed data matrix. We derive a DAG score function based on this insight, prove its consistency in recovering a correct ordering of the DAG, and empirically compare it to previous approaches. We demonstrate improved performance on both simulated and real datasets by explicitly accounting for both confounders and nonlinear effects. 
    more » « less
  5. Machine learning (ML) methods for causal inference have gained popularity due to their flexibility to predict the outcome model and the propensity score. In this article, we provide a within-group approach for ML-based causal inference methods in order to robustly estimate average treatment effects in multilevel studies when there is cluster-level unmeasured confounding. We focus on one particular ML-based causal inference method based on the targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) with an ensemble learner called SuperLearner. Through our simulation studies, we observe that training TMLE within groups of similar clusters helps remove bias from cluster-level unmeasured confounders. Also, using within-group propensity scores estimated from fixed effects logistic regression increases the robustness of the proposed within-group TMLE method. Even if the propensity scores are partially misspecified, the within-group TMLE still produces robust ATE estimates due to double robustness with flexible modeling, unlike parametric-based inverse propensity weighting methods. We demonstrate our proposed methods and conduct sensitivity analyses against the number of groups and individual-level unmeasured confounding to evaluate the effect of taking an eighth-grade algebra course on math achievement in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study. 
    more » « less