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Context.Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of plasma from the Sun that travel through interplanetary space and may encounter Earth. CMEs often enclose a magnetic flux rope (MFR), the orientation of which largely determines the CMEs’ geoeffectiveness. Current operational CME models do not model MFRs, but a number of research ones do, including the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) model. Aims.We report the sensitivity of OSPREI to a range of user-selected photospheric and coronal conditions. Methods.We modeled four separate CMEs observed in situ by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We varied the input photospheric conditions using four input magnetograms (HMI Synchronic, HMI Synoptic, GONG Synoptic Zero-Point Corrected, and GONG ADAPT). To vary the coronal field reconstruction, we employed the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model and varied its source-surface height in the range 1.5–3.0R⊙with 0.1R⊙increments. Results.We find that both the input magnetogram and PFSS source surface often affect the evolution of the CME as it propagates through the Sun’s corona into interplanetary space, and therefore the accuracy of the MFR prediction compared to in situ data at PSP. There is no obvious best combination of input magnetogram and PFSS source surface height. Conclusions.The OSPREI model is moderately sensitive to the input photospheric and coronal conditions. Based on where the source region of the CME is located on the Sun, there may be best practices when selecting an input magnetogram to use.
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This content will become publicly available on June 10, 2026
A near-real-time data-assimilative model of the solar corona
The Sun’s corona is its tenuous outer atmosphere of hot plasma, which is difficult to observe. Most models of the corona extrapolate its magnetic field from that measured on the photosphere (the Sun’s optical surface) over a full 27-day solar rotational period, providing a time-stationary approximation. We present a model of the corona that evolves continuously in time, by assimilating photospheric magnetic field observations as they become available. This approach reproduces dynamical features that do not appear in time-stationary models. We used the model to predict coronal structure during the total solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 near the maximum of the solar activity cycle. There is better agreement between the model predictions and eclipse observations in coronal regions located above recently assimilated photospheric data.
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- PAR ID:
- 10600754
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- AAAS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science
- ISSN:
- 0036-8075
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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