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Abstract On 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites, 38 of which unexpectedly de‐orbited. Although this event was attributed to space weather, definitive causality remained elusive because space weather conditions were not extreme. In this study, we identify solar sources of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections that were responsible for the geomagnetic storms around the time of launch of the Starlink satellites and for the first time, investigate their impact on Earth's magnetosphere using magnetohydrodynamic modeling. The model results demonstrate that the satellites were launched into an already disturbed space environment that persisted over several days. However, on performing comparative satellite orbital decay analyses, we find that space weather alone was not responsible but conspired together with a low‐altitude insertion and low satellite mass‐to‐area ratio to precipitate this unusual loss. Our work bridges space weather causality across the Sun–Earth system—with relevance for space‐based human technologies. 

Abstract Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are immense eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields that are propelled outward from the Sun, sometimes with velocities greater than 2000 km/s. They are responsible for some of the most severe space weather at Earth, including geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. We have developed CORHEL-CME, an interactive tool that allows non-expert users to routinely model multiple CMEs in a realistic coronal and heliospheric environment. The tool features a web-based user interface that allows the user to select a time period of interest, and employs Regularized Biot-Savart Law (RBSL) flux ropes to create stable and unstable pre-eruptive configurations within a background global magnetic field. The properties of these configurations can first be explored in a zero-beta magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, followed by complete CME simulations in thermodynamic MHD, with propagation out to 1 AU. We describe design features of the interface and computations, including the innovations required to efficiently compute results on practical timescales with moderate computational resources. CORHEL-CME is now implemented at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) using NASA Amazon Web Services (AWS). It will be available to the public in early 2024. 

Abstract Unconditionally stable time stepping schemes are useful and often practically necessary for advancing parabolic operators in multi-scale systems. However, serious accuracy problems may emerge when taking time steps that far exceed the explicit stability limits. In our previous work, we compared the accuracy and performance of advancing parabolic operators in a thermodynamic MHD model using an implicit method and an explicit super time-stepping (STS) method. We found that while the STS method outperformed the implicit one with overall good results, it was not able to damp oscillatory behavior in the solution efficiently, hindering its practical use. In this follow-up work, we evaluate an easy-to-implement method for selecting a practical time step limit (PTL) for unconditionally stable schemes. This time step is used to ‘cycle’ the operator-split thermal conduction and viscosity parabolic operators. We test the new time step with both an implicit and STS scheme for accuracy, performance, and scaling. We find that, for our test cases here, the PTL dramatically improves the STS solution, matching or improving the solution of the original implicit scheme, while retaining most of its performance and scaling advantages. The PTL shows promise to allow more accurate use of unconditionally stable schemes for parabolic operators and reliable use of STS methods. 

Abstract Observations have shown a clear association of filament/prominence eruptions with the emergence of magnetic flux in or near filament channels. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations have been employed to systematically study the conditions under which such eruptions occur. These simulations to date have modeled filament channels as 2D flux ropes or 3D uniformly sheared arcades. Here we present MHD simulations of flux emergence into a more realistic configuration consisting of a bipolar active region containing a line-tied 3D flux rope. We use the coronal flux-rope model of Titov et al. as the initial condition and drive our simulations by imposing boundary conditions extracted from a flux emergence simulation by Leake et al. We identify three mechanisms that determine the evolution of the system: (i) reconnection displacing footpoints of field lines overlying the coronal flux rope, (ii) changes of the ambient field due to the intrusion of new flux at the boundary, and (iii) interaction of the (axial) electric currents in the preexisting and newly emerging flux systems. The relative contributions and effects of these mechanisms depend on the properties of the preexisting and emerging flux systems. Here we focus on the location and orientation of the emerging flux relative to the coronal flux rope. Varying these parameters, we investigate under which conditions an eruption of the latter is triggered. 

Abstract We present in this Letter the first global comparison between traditional line-tied steady-state magnetohydrodynamic models and a new, fully time-dependent thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the global corona. To approximate surface magnetic field distributions and magnitudes around solar minimum, we use the Lockheed Evolving Surface-Flux Assimilation Model to obtain input maps that incorporate flux emergence and surface flows over a full solar rotation, including differential rotation and meridional flows. Each time step evolves the previous state of the plasma with a new magnetic field input boundary condition, mimicking photospheric driving on the Sun. We find that this method produces a qualitatively different corona compared to steady-state models. The magnetic energy levels are higher in the time-dependent model, and coronal holes evolve more along the following edge than they do in steady-state models. Coronal changes, as illustrated with forward-modeled emission maps, evolve on longer timescales with time-dependent driving. We discuss implications for active and quiet Sun scenarios, solar wind formation, and widely used steady-state assumptions like potential field source surface calculations. 

Abstract It has been suggested that the ratio of photospheric direct to return current, ∣DC/RC∣, may be a better proxy for assessing the ability of solar active regions to produce a coronal mass ejection (CME) than others such as the amount of shear along the polarity inversion line (PIL). To test this conjecture, we measure both quantities prior to eruptive and confined flares of varying magnitude. We find that eruptive-flare source regions have ∣DC/RC∣ > 1.63 and PIL shear above 45° (average values of 3.°2 and 68°, respectively), tending to be larger for stronger events, while both quantities are on average smaller for confined-flare source regions (2.°2 and 68°, respectively), albeit with substantial overlap. Many source regions, especially those of eruptive X-class flares, exhibit elongated direct currents (EDCs) bracketing the eruptive PIL segment, which typically coincide with areas of continuous PIL shear above 45°. However, a small subset of confined-flare source regions have ∣DC/RC∣ close to unity, very low PIL shear (<38°), and no clear EDC signatures, rendering such regions less likely to produce a CME. A simple quantitative analysis reveals that ∣DC/RC∣ and PIL shear are almost equally good proxies for assessing CME-productivity, comparable to other proxies suggested in the literature. We also show that an inadequate selection of the current-integration area typically yields a substantial underestimation of ∣DC/RC∣, discuss specific cases that require careful consideration for ∣DC/RC∣ calculation and interpretation of the results, and suggest improving photospheric CME-productivity proxies by incorporating coronal measures such as the decay index. 

Abstract Coronal holes are recognized as the primary sources of heliospheric open magnetic flux (OMF). However, a noticeable gap exists between in situ measured OMF and that derived from remote-sensing observations of the Sun. In this study, we investigate the OMF evolution and its connection to solar structures throughout 2014, with special emphasis on the period from September to October, where a sudden and significant OMF increase was reported. By deriving the OMF evolution at 1 au, modeling it at the source surface, and analyzing solar photospheric data, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the observed phenomenon. First, we establish a strong correlation between the OMF increase and the solar magnetic field derived from a potential-field source-surface model (cc_Pearson= 0.94). Moreover, we find a good correlation between the OMF and the open flux derived from solar coronal holes (cc_Pearson= 0.88), although the coronal holes only contain 14%–32% of the Sun’s total open flux. However, we note that while the OMF evolution correlates with coronal hole open flux, there is no correlation with the coronal hole area evolution (cc_Pearson= 0.0). The temporal increase in OMF correlates with the vanishing remnant magnetic field at the southern pole, caused by poleward flux circulations from the decay of numerous active regions months earlier. Additionally, our analysis suggests a potential link between the OMF enhancement and the concurrent emergence of the largest active region in solar cycle 24. In conclusion, our study provides insights into the strong increase in OMF observed during 2014 September–October. 

Abstract The trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are often seen to deviate substantially from a purely radial propagation direction. Such deviations occur predominantly in the corona and have been attributed to “channeling” or deflection of the eruptive flux by asymmetric ambient magnetic fields. Here, we investigate an additional mechanism that does not require any asymmetry of the preeruptive ambient field. Using magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulations, we show that the trajectories of CMEs through the solar corona can significantly deviate from the radial direction when propagation takes place in a unipolar radial field. We demonstrate that the deviation is most prominent below ∼15R_⊙and can be attributed to an “effectiveI×Bforce” that arises from the intrusion of a magnetic flux rope with a net axial electric current into a unipolar background field. These results are important for predictions of CME trajectories in the context of space-weather forecasts, as well as for reaching a deeper understanding of the fundamental physics underlying CME interactions with the ambient fields in the extended solar corona. 

Abstract We describe, test, and apply a technique to incorporate full-Sun, surface flux evolution into an MHD model of the global solar corona. Requiring only maps of the evolving surface flux, our method is similar to that of Lionello et al., but we introduce two ways to correct the electric field at the lower boundary to mitigate spurious currents. We verify the accuracy of our procedures by comparing to a reference simulation, driven with known flows and electric fields. We then present a thermodynamic MHD calculation lasting one solar rotation driven by maps from the magnetic flux evolution model of Schrijver & DeRosa. The dynamic, time-dependent nature of the model corona is illustrated by examining the evolution of the open flux boundaries and forward-modeled EUV emission, which evolve in response to surface flows and the emergence and cancellation flux. Although our main goal is to present the method, we briefly investigate the relevance of this evolution to properties of the slow solar wind, examining the mapping of dipped field lines to the topological signatures of the “S-Web” and comparing charge state ratios computed in the time-dependently driven run to a steady-state equivalent. Interestingly, we find that driving on its own does not significantly improve the charge state ratios, at least in this modest resolution run that injects minimal helicity. Still, many aspects of the time-dependently driven model cannot be captured with traditional steady-state methods, and such a technique may be particularly relevant for the next generation of solar wind and coronal mass ejection models. 

Abstract Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high speed streams (HSSs) are large‐scale transient structures that routinely propagate away from the Sun. Individually, they can cause space weather effects at the Earth, or elsewhere in space, but many of the largest events occur when these structures interact during their interplanetary propagation. We present the initial coupling of Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI), a model for CME evolution, with Mostly Empirical Operational Wind with a High Speed Stream, a time‐dependent HSS model that can serve as a background for the OSPREI CME. We present several improvements made to OSPREI in order to take advantage of the new time‐dependent, higher‐dimension background. This includes an update in the drag calculation and the ability to determine the rotation of a yaw‐like angle. We present several theoretical case studies, describing the difference in the CME behavior between a HSS background and a quiescent one. This behavior includes interplanetary CME propagation, expansion, deformation, and rotation, as well as the formation of a CME‐driven sheath. We also determine how the CME behavior changes with the HSS size and initial front distance. Generally, for a fast CME, we see that the drag is greatly reduced within the HSS, leading to faster CMEs and shorter travel times. The drag reappears stronger if the CME reaches the stream interaction region or upstream solar wind, leading to a stronger shock with more compression until the CME sufficiently decelerates. We model a CME–HSS interaction event observed by Parker Solar Probe in January 2022. The model improvements create a better match to the observed in situ profiles.