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Current modeling practices for environmental and sociological modulated infectious diseases remain inadequate to forecast the risk of outbreak(s) in human populations, partly due to a lack of integration of disciplinary knowledge, limited availability of disease surveillance datasets, and overreliance on compartmental epidemiological modeling methods. Harvesting data knowledge from virus transmission (aerosols) and detection (wastewater) of SARS-CoV-2, a heuristic score-based environmental predictive intelligence system was developed that calculates the risk of COVID-19 in the human population. Seasonal validation of the algorithm was uniquely associated with wastewater surveillance of the virus, providing a lead time of 7–14 days before a county-level outbreak. Using county-scale disease prevalence data from the United States, the algorithm could predict COVID-19 risk with an overall accuracy ranging between 81% and 98%. Similarly, using wastewater surveillance data from Illinois and Maryland, the SARS-CoV-2 detection rate was greater than 80% for 75% of the locations during the same time the risk was predicted to be high. Results suggest the importance of a holistic approach across disciplinary boundaries that can potentially allow anticipatory decision-making policies of saving lives and maximizing the use of available capacity and resources.
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Expanding National‐Scale Wildlife Disease Surveillance Systems With Research Networks
ABSTRACT Efficient learning about disease dynamics in free‐ranging wildlife systems can benefit from active surveillance that is standardized across different ecological contexts. For example, active surveillance that targets specific individuals and populations with standardized sampling across ecological contexts (landscape‐scale targeted surveillance) is important for developing a mechanistic understanding of disease emergence, which is the foundation for improving risk assessment of zoonotic or wildlife‐livestock disease outbreaks and predicting hotspots of disease emergence. However, landscape‐scale targeted surveillance systems are rare and challenging to implement. Increasing experience and infrastructure for landscape‐scale targeted surveillance will improve readiness for rapid deployment of this type of surveillance in response to new disease emergence events. Here, we describe our experience developing and rapidly deploying a landscape‐scale targeted surveillance system for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) in two free‐ranging deer species across their ranges in the United States. Our surveillance system was designed to collect data across individual, population, and landscape scales for future analyses aimed at understanding mechanisms and risk factors of SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission, evolution, and persistence. Our approach leveraged partnerships between state and federal public service sectors and academic researchers in a landscape‐scale targeted surveillance research network. Methods describe our approach to developing the surveillance network and sampling design. Results report challenges with implementing our intended sampling design, specifically how the design was adapted as different challenges arose and summarize the sampling design that has been implemented thus far. In the discussion, we describe strategies that were important for the successful deployment of landscape‐scale targeted surveillance, development and operation of the research network, construction of similar networks in the future, and analytical approaches for the data based on the sampling design.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2321358
- PAR ID:
- 10603767
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology and Evolution
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2045-7758
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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