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The planktonic copepod Calanus finmarchicus is a fundamental prey resource for the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis . Incorporation of prey information into E. gla cialis decision support tools could improve management. Zooplankton time series are usually analyzed with respect to abundance, but predators such as E. glacialis forage based on whether prey aggregations exceed energetic thresholds. In order to better understand the distribution and dynamics of the high-abundance end of C. finmarchicus on the northeastern US continental shelf, where E. glacialis feed, we modeled the environmental conditions associated with C. finmarchicus densities that exceed nominal feeding thresholds. Threshold values were chosen based on a review of E. glacialis feeding behavior throughout the domain. Following model selection procedures, we used a random forest model with bathymetry, bottom temperature, bottom salinity, day of year, sea surface temperature, sea surface temperature gradient, bathymetric slope, time-integrated chlorophyll, current velocity gradient, and wind covariates. Model performance was highest with thresholds that matched reported E. glacialis feeding thresholds equivalent to 10000 copepods m -2 . The high-density aggregations of C. finmarchicus had some different covariate responses compared to previous statistical abundance models, such as a warmer temperature range at both the surface and at depth, as well as a much higher degree of spatial variability. The output data layers of the model are designed to link with E. glacialis models used in US governmental decision support tools. Including this type of foraging information in decision support tools is a step forward in managing this critically endangered species.
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This content will become publicly available on May 20, 2026
Suitability of foraging habitat for Eubalaena glacialis under future climate scenarios in the Northwest Atlantic
The critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) faces significant anthropogenic mortality. Recent climatic shifts in traditional habitats have caused abrupt changes in right whale distributions, challenging traditional conservation strategies. Tools that can help anticipate new areas where E. glacialis might forage could inform proactive management. In this study, we trained boosted regression tree algorithms with fine-resolution modeled environmental covariates to build prey copepod (Calanus) species-specific models of historical and future distributions of E. glacialis foraging habitat on the Northwest Atlantic Shelf, from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to the Labrador Shelf. We determined foraging suitability using E. glacialis foraging thresholds for Calanus spp. adjusted by a bathymetry-dependent bioenergetic correction factor based on known foraging behavior constraints. Models were then projected to 2046–2065 and 2066–2085 modeled climatologies for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with the goal of identifying potential shifts in foraging habitat. The models had generally high performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve > 0.9) and indicated ocean bottom conditions and bathymetry as important covariates. Historical (1990–2015) projections aligned with known areas of high foraging habitat suitability as well as potential suitable areas on the Labrador Shelf. Future projections suggested that the suitability of potential foraging habitat would decrease in parts of the Gulf of Maine and southwestern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, while potential habitat would be maintained or improved on the western Scotian Shelf, in the Bay of Fundy, on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelves, and at some locations along the continental shelf breaks. Overall, suitable habitat is projected to decline. Directing some survey efforts toward emerging potential foraging habitats can enable conservation management to anticipate the type of distribution shifts that have led to high mortality in the past.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2307754
- PAR ID:
- 10603976
- Publisher / Repository:
- University of California Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Elem Sci Anth
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2325-1026
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Calanus, Eubalaena glacialis, North Atlantic right whale, Climate scenario, Model
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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