Abstract Low clouds frequent the subtropical northeastern Pacific Ocean (NEP) and interact with the local sea surface temperature (SST) to form positive feedback. Wind fluctuations drive SST variability through wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback, and surface evaporation also acts to damp SST. This study investigates the relative contributions of these feedbacks to NEP SST variability. Over the summer NEP, the low cloud–SST feedback is so large that it exceeds the evaporative damping and amplifies summertime SST variations. The WES feedback causes the locally enhanced SST variability to propagate southwestward from the NEP low cloud deck, modulating El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrence upon reaching the equator. As a result, a second-year El Niño tends to occur when there are significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical NEP in summer following an antecedent El Niño event and a second-year La Niña tends to occur when there are significant cold SST anomalies over the subtropical NEP in summer following an antecedent La Niña event The mediating role of the NEP low cloud–SST feedback is confirmed in a cloud-locking experiment with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). When the cloud–ocean coupling is disabled, SST variability over the NEP weakens and the modulating effect on ENSO vanishes. The nonlocal effect of the NEP low cloud–SST feedback on ENSO has important implications for climate prediction.
more »
« less
Low Cloud–SST Variability over the Summertime Subtropical Northeast Pacific: Role of Extratropical Atmospheric Modes
Abstract Over the subtropical Northeast Pacific (NEP), highly reflective low clouds interact with underlying sea surface temperature (SST) to constitute a local positive feedback. Recent modeling studies showed that, together with wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback, the summertime low cloud–SST feedback promotes nonlocal trade wind variations, modulating subsequent evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to identify drivers of summertime low-cloud variations, using satellite observations and global atmosphere model simulations forced with observed SST. A transbasin teleconnection is identified, where the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) warming induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) increases precipitation, exciting warm Rossby waves that extend into the NEP. The resultant enhancement of static stability promotes summertime low cloud–SST variability. By regressing out the effects of the preceding ENSO and NTA SST, atmospheric internal variability over the extratropical North Pacific, including the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), is found to drive the NEP cooling by latent heat loss and subsequent summer low cloud–SST variability. With the help of the background trade winds and WES feedback, the SST anomalies extend southwestward from the low-cloud region, accompanied by ENSO in the following winter. This suggests the nonlocal effects of low clouds identified by recent studies. Analysis of a 500-yr climate model simulation corroborates the NTA and NPO forcing of NEP low cloud–SST variability and subsequent ENSO.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2105654
- PAR ID:
- 10610176
- Publisher / Repository:
- AMS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 38
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 165 to 180
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract This study quantifies the contributions of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations during the boreal warm season to the interannual-to-decadal variability in tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the Northern Hemisphere ocean basins. The first seven leading modes of tropical SST variability are found to affect basinwide TCGF in one or more basins, and are related to canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), global warming (GW), the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). These modes account for approximately 58%, 50%, and 56% of the variance in basinwide TCGF during 1969–2018 over the North Atlantic (NA), northeast Pacific (NEP), and northwest Pacific (NWP) Oceans, respectively. The SST effect is weak on TCGF variability in the north Indian Ocean. The SST modes dominating TCGF variability differ among the basins: ENSO, the AMO, AMM, and GW are dominant for the NA; ENSO and the AMO for the NEP; and the PMM, interannual AMO, and GW for the NWP. A specific mode may have opposite effects on TCGF in different basins, particularly between the NA and NEP. Sliding-window multiple linear regression analyses show that the SST effects on basinwide TCGF are stable in time in the NA and NWP, but have strengthened since the 1990s in the NEP. The SST effects on local TC genesis and occurrence frequency are also explored, and the underlying physical mechanisms are examined by diagnosing a genesis potential index and its components.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Abstract The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of year-to-year global climate variability, is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), especially during boreal spring season. Focusing on statistical lead-lag relationships, previous studies have proposed that interannual NTA SST variability can also feed back on ENSO in a predictable manner. However, these studies did not properly account for ENSO’s autocorrelation and the fact that the SST in the Atlantic and Pacific, as well as their interaction are seasonally modulated. This can lead to misinterpretations of causality and the spurious identification of Atlantic precursors for ENSO. Revisiting this issue under consideration of seasonality, time-varying ENSO frequency, and greenhouse warming, we demonstrate that the cross-correlation characteristics between NTA SST and ENSO, are consistent with a one-way Pacific to Atlantic forcing, even though the interpretation of lead-lag relationships may suggest otherwise.more » « less
-
Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, is well known to affect the extratropical climate via atmospheric teleconnections. Extratropical atmospheric variability may in turn influence the occurrence of ENSO events. The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), as the secondary dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, has been recognized as a potential precursor for ENSO development. This study demonstrates that the preexisting winter NPO signal is primarily excited by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial western–central Pacific. During ENSO years with a preceding winter NPO signal, which accounts for approximately 60% of ENSO events observed in 1979–2021, significant SST anomalies emerge in the equatorial western–central Pacific in the preceding autumn and winter. The concurrent presence of local convection anomalies can act as a catalyst for NPO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies. In contrast, during other ENSO years, significant SST anomalies are not observed in the equatorial western–central Pacific during the preceding winter, and correspondingly, the NPO signal is absent. Ensemble simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observed SST anomalies in the tropical western–central Pacific can well reproduce the interannual variability of observed NPO. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the observed NPO–ENSO relationship is that the preceding winter NPO is a companion to ENSO development, driven by the precursory SST signal in the equatorial western–central Pacific. Our results suggest that the lagged relationship between ENSO and the NPO involves a tropical–extratropical two-way coupling rather than a purely stochastic forcing of the extratropical atmosphere on ENSO.more » « less
-
Abstract This study examines the climate response to a sea surface temperature (SST) warming imposed over the southwest Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The results indicate that the southwest TIO SST warming can remotely modulate the atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) via inter-basin air-sea interaction during early boreal summer. The southwest TIO SST warming induces a “C-shaped” wind response with northeasterly and northwesterly anomalies over the north and south TIO, respectively. The northeasterly wind anomalies contribute to the north TIO SST warming via a positive Wind-Evaporation-SST(WES) feedback after the Asian summer monsoon onset. In June, the easterly wind response extends into the WNP, inducing an SST cooling by WES feedback on the background trade winds. Both the north TIO SST warming and the WNP SST cooling contribute to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) over the WNP. The north TIO SST warming, WNP SST cooling, and AAC constitute an inter-basin coupled mode called the Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC), and the southwest TIO SST warming could be a trigger for IPOC. While the summertime southwest TIO SST warming is often associated with antecedent El Niño, the warming in 2020 seems to be related to extreme Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 fall. The strong southwest TIO SST warming seems to partly explain the strong summer AAC of 2020 over the WNP even without a strong antecedent El Niño.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

