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Abstract The potential for future earthquakes on faults is often inferred from inversions of geodetically derived surface velocities for locking on faults using kinematic models such as block models. This can be challenging in complex deforming zones with many closely spaced faults or where deformation is not readily described with block motions. Furthermore, surface strain rates are more directly related to coupling on faults than surface velocities. We present a methodology for estimating slip deficit rate directly from strain rate and apply it to New Zealand for the purpose of incorporating geodetic data in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The strain rate inversions imply slightly higher slip deficit rates than the preferred geologic slip rates on sections of the major strike‐slip systems including the Alpine Fault, the Marlborough Fault System and the northern part of the North Island Fault System. Slip deficit rates are significantly lower than even the lowest geologic estimates on some strike‐slip faults in the southern North Island Fault System near Wellington. Over the entire plate boundary, geodetic slip deficit rates are systematically higher than geologic slip rates for faults slipping less than one mm/yr but lower on average for faults with slip rates between about 5 and 25 mm/yr. We show that 70%–80% of the total strain rate field can be attributed to elastic strain due to fault coupling. The remaining 20%–30% shows systematic spatial patterns of strain rate style that is often consistent with local geologic style of faulting.
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Recency of Faulting and Subsurface Architecture of the San Diego Bay Pull-Apart Basin, California, USA
In Southern California, plate boundary motion between the North American and Pacific plates is distributed across several sub-parallel fault systems. The offshore faults of the California Continental Borderland (CCB) are thought to accommodate ∼10–15% of the total plate boundary motion, but the exact distribution of slip and the mechanics of slip partitioning remain uncertain. The Newport-Inglewood-Rose Canyon fault is the easternmost fault within the CCB whose southern segment splays out into a complex network of faults beneath San Diego Bay. A pull-apart basin model between the Rose Canyon and the offshore Descanso fault has been used to explain prominent fault orientations and subsidence beneath San Diego Bay; however, this model does not account for faults in the southern portion of the bay or faulting east of the bay. To investigate the characteristics of faulting and stratigraphic architecture beneath San Diego Bay, we combined a suite of reprocessed legacy airgun multi-channel seismic profiles and high-resolution Chirp data, with age and lithology controls from geotechnical boreholes and shallow sub-surface vibracores. This combined dataset is used to create gridded horizon surfaces, fault maps, and perform a kinematic fault analysis. The structure beneath San Diego Bay is dominated by down-to-the-east motion on normal faults that can be separated into two distinct groups. The strikes of these two fault groups can be explained with a double pull-apart basin model for San Diego Bay. In our conceptual model, the western portion of San Diego Bay is controlled by a right-step between the Rose Canyon and Descanso faults, which matches both observations and predictions from laboratory models. The eastern portion of San Diego Bay appears to be controlled by an inferred step-over between the Rose Canyon and San Miguel-Vallecitos faults and displays distinct fault strike orientations, which kinematic analysis indicates should have a significant component of strike-slip partitioning that is not detectable in the seismic data. The potential of a Rose Canyon-San Miguel-Vallecitos fault connection would effectively cut the stepover distance in half and have important implications for the seismic hazard of the San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan area (population ∼3 million people).
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- Award ID(s):
- 2225216
- PAR ID:
- 10610300
- Publisher / Repository:
- Frontiers in Earth Science
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Earth Science
- Volume:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2296-6463
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.641346
