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Abstract The polarFregion ionosphere frequently exhibits sporadic variability (e.g., Meek, 1949,https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ054i004p00339; Hill, 1963,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520‐0469(1963)020<0492:SEOLII>2.0.CO;2). Recent satellite data analysis (Noja et al., 2013,https://doi.org/10.1002/rds.20033; Chartier et al., 2018,https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024811) showed that the high‐latitudeFregion ionosphere exhibits sporadic enhancements more frequently in January than in July in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The same pattern has been seen in statistics of the degradation and total loss of GPS service onboard low‐Earth orbit satellites (Xiong et al. 2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo‐36‐679‐2018). Here, we confirm the existence of this annual pattern using ground GPS‐based images of TEC from the MIDAS algorithm. Images covering January and July 2014 confirm that the high‐latitude (>70 MLAT)Fregion exhibits a substantially larger range of values in January than in July in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The range of TEC values observed in the polar caps is 38–57 TECU (north‐south) in January versus 25–37 TECU in July. First‐principle modeling using SAMI3 reproduces this pattern, and indicates that it is caused by an asymmetry in plasma levels (30% higher in January than in July across both polar caps), as well as 17% longer O+plasma lifetimes in northern hemisphere winter, compared to southern hemisphere winter.
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Assessment of Current Capabilities in Modeling the Ionospheric Climatology for Space Weather Applications: foF2 and hmF2‐II
Abstract We expand the assessment study of modeling capabilities in the prediction of foF2 and hmF2 for the ionospheric climatology (Tsagouri et al., 2018,https://doi.org/10.1029/2018sw002035) by using updated empirical (IRI and MIT Empirical model) and physics‐based models (CTIPe, WACCM‐X, and TIE‐GCM) as well as the additional observations in the southern hemisphere. Monthly medians of foF2 and hmF2 are considered to evaluate the model performance for the entire year of 2012. For quantitative evaluation, we employ several metrics including the correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R2), root‐mean square error (RMSE), mean error (ME), and mean relative error (MRE). The linear regression analysis shows that the empirical models perform much better than physics‐based models for foF2 but to a lesser degree for hmF2. There are negligible hemispheric differences in the predictions from empirical models. All the physics‐based models show relatively good correlations with the observations for foF2 in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere, but the hemispheric differences are small for hmF2. The results of the study indicate that recent versions of empirical models tend to perform better than old versions of the models, but this is not always true for physics‐based models.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2140031
- PAR ID:
- 10610798
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 23
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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