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Societal Impact StatementForest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable. SummaryHuman effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling.Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900‐present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO₂and temperature change for different anthromes among regions.Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO₂increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO₂and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests.The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land‐use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands. 

ABSTRACT Wind is the primary dispersal mechanism of most fungal spores but is rarely considered in studies of fungal communities, limiting inference of assembly mechanisms and forecasting responses to climate change. We compiled wind‐connectivity models—‘windscapes’—to model potential dispersal of fungal spores at the continental scale and linked them with a molecular dataset of North American soil fungi. Our analyses demonstrate that prevailing windflow patterns exhibit a significantly stronger signal on fungal community structure than do geographic distances amongst sites. Notably, the signature of wind was detectable for mushrooms and fungi producing primarily wind‐dispersed spores. Contrastingly, fungi primarily reliant on animal dispersal exhibited a strong signature of geographic distance but not wind‐connectivity. Additionally, we show that directionally ‘downwind’ sites are more diverse than comparatively ‘upwind’ sites. Altogether, our findings suggest that future wind patterns will shape the adaptation potential of fungal communities dispersing into suitable climatic niches. 

Abstract Phenological shifts due to climate change have been extensively studied in plants and animals. Yet, the responses of fungal spores—organisms important to ecosystems and major airborne allergens—remain understudied. This knowledge gap limits our understanding of their ecological and public health implications. To address this, we analyzed a long‐term (2003–2022), large‐scale (the continental US) data set of airborne fungal spores collected by the US National Allergy Bureau. We first pre‐processed the spore data by gap‐filling and smoothing. Afterward, we extracted 10 metrics describing the phenology (e.g., start and end of season) and intensity (e.g., peak concentration and integral) of fungal spore seasons. These metrics were derived using two complementary but not mutually exclusive approaches—ecological and public health approaches, defined as percentiles of total spore concentration and allergenic thresholds of spore concentration, respectively. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we quantified annual shifts in these metrics across the continental US. We revealed a significant advancement in the onset of the spore seasons defined in both ecological (11 days, 95% confidence interval: 0.4–23 days) and public health (22 days, 6–38 days) approaches over two decades. Meanwhile, total spore concentrations in an annual cycle and in a spore allergy season tended to decrease over time. The earlier start of the spore season was significantly correlated with climatic variables, such as warmer temperatures and altered precipitations. Overall, our findings suggest possible climate‐driven advanced fungal spore seasons, highlighting the importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation in public health decision‐making. 

ABSTRACT The fundamental trade‐off between current and future reproduction has long been considered to result in a tendency for species that can grow large to begin reproduction at a larger size. Due to the prolonged time required to reach maturity, estimates of tree maturation size remain very rare and we lack a global view on the generality and the shape of this trade‐off. Using seed production from five continents, we estimate tree maturation sizes for 486 tree species spanning tropical to boreal climates. Results show that a species' maturation size increases with maximum size, but in a non‐proportional way: the largest species begin reproduction at smaller sizes than would be expected if maturation were simply proportional to maximum size. Furthermore, the decrease in relative maturation size is steepest in cold climates. These findings on maturation size drivers are key to accurately represent forests' responses to disturbance and climate change. 

Afforestation and reforestation, both of which refer to forestation strategies, are widely promoted as key tools to mitigate anthropogenic warming. However, the carbon sequestration potential of these efforts remains uncertain in satellite-based assessments, particularly when accounting for dynamic climate conditions, vegetation-climate feedback, fire-dominated disturbance, and the trade-offs associated with surface albedo changes. Leveraging a coupled Earth system model, we estimated that global forestation mitigates 31.3 to 69.2 Pg C_eq(carbon equivalent) during 2021–2100 under a sustainable shared socioeconomic pathway. Regionally, the highest carbon mitigation potential of forestation concentrates in tropical areas, while mid-high-latitude regions demonstrate higher heterogeneity, highlighting the need for region-specific strategies and further refinement of nature-based mitigation plans. Our findings underscore the importance of considering disturbances and minimizing adverse albedo changes when estimating the carbon mitigation potential of forestation initiatives. We also advocate for the development of consistent, high-resolution maps of suitable areas for targeted forestation, avoiding environmentally sensitive lands and potential conflicts with other human activities. 

Forests are integral to the global land carbon sink, which has sequestered ~30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions over recent decades. The persistence of this sink depends on the balance of positive drivers that increase ecosystem carbon storage—e.g., CO₂fertilization—and negative drivers that decrease it—e.g., intensifying disturbances. The net response of forest productivity to these drivers is uncertain due to the challenge of separating their effects from background disturbance–regrowth dynamics. We fit non-linear models to US forest inventory data (113,806 plot remeasurements in non-plantation forests from ~1999 to 2020) to quantify productivity trends while accounting for stand age, tree mortality, and harvest. Productivity trends were generally positive in the eastern United States, where climate change has been mild, and negative in the western United States, where climate change has been more severe. Productivity declines in the western United States cannot be explained by increased mortality or harvest; these declines likely reflect adverse climate-change impacts on tree growth. In the eastern United States, where data were available to partition biomass change into age-dependent and age-independent components, forest maturation and increasing productivity (likely due, at least in part, to CO₂fertilization) contributed roughly equally to biomass carbon sinks. Thus, adverse effects of climate change appear to overwhelm any positive drivers in the water-limited forests of the western United States, whereas forest maturation and positive responses to age-independent drivers contribute to eastern US carbon sinks. The future land carbon balance of forests will likely depend on the geographic extent of drought and heat stress.