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Abstract Key science questions, such as galaxy distance estimation and weather forecasting, often require knowing the full predictive distribution of a target variableYgiven complex inputsX. Despite recent advances in machine learning and physics-based models, it remains challenging to assess whether an initial model is calibrated for allx, and when needed, to reshape the densities ofytoward ‘instance-wise’ calibration. This paper introduces the local amortized diagnostics and reshaping of conditional densities (LADaR) framework and proposes a new computationally efficient algorithm (Cal-PIT) that produces interpretable local diagnostics and provides a mechanism for adjusting conditional density estimates (CDEs).Cal-PITlearns a single interpretable local probability–probability map from calibration data that identifies where and how the initial model is miscalibrated across feature space, which can be used to morph CDEs such that they are well-calibrated. We illustrate the LADaR framework on synthetic examples, including probabilistic forecasting from image sequences, akin to predicting storm wind speed from satellite imagery. Our main science application involves estimating the probability density functions of galaxy distances given photometric data, whereCal-PITachieves better instance-wise calibration than all 11 other literature methods in a benchmark data challenge, demonstrating its utility for next-generation cosmological analyzes99Code available as a Python package here:https://github.com/lee-group-cmu/Cal-PIT..
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This content will become publicly available on February 11, 2026
Peering into the Black Box: Forward Modeling of the Uncertainty Budget of High-resolution Spectroscopy of Exoplanet Atmospheres
Abstract Ground-based high-resolution cross-correlation spectroscopy (HRCCS;R ≳ 15,000) is a powerful complement to space-based studies of exoplanet atmospheres. By resolving individual spectral lines, HRCCS can precisely measure chemical abundance ratios, directly constrain atmospheric dynamics, and robustly probe multidimensional physics. But the subtleties of HRCCS data sets—e.g., the lack of exoplanetary spectra visible by eye and the statistically complex process of telluric removal—can make interpreting them difficult. In this work, we seek to clarify the uncertainty budget of HRCCS with a forward-modeling approach. We present an HRCCS observation simulator,scope,55https://github.com/arjunsavel/scopethat incorporates spectral contributions from the exoplanet, star, tellurics, and instrument. This tool allows us to control the underlying data set, enabling controlled experimentation with complex HRCCS methods. Simulating a fiducial hot Jupiter data set (WASP-77Ab emission with IGRINS), we first confirm via multiple tests that the commonly used principal component analysis does not bias the planetary signal when few components are used. Furthermore, we demonstrate that mildly varying tellurics and moderate wavelength solution errors induce only mild decreases in HRCCS detection significance. However, limiting-case, strongly varying tellurics can bias the retrieved velocities and gas abundances. Additionally, in the low signal-to-noise ratio limit, constraints on gas abundances become highly non-Gaussian. Our investigation of the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in HRCCS data analysis enables greater confidence in scientific results from this maturing method.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2307177
- PAR ID:
- 10614281
- Publisher / Repository:
- AAS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astronomical Journal
- Volume:
- 169
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0004-6256
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 135
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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