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Title: Stalagmites as Records of Tropical Climate Change
Stalagmites are excellent archives of past climate change. They can grow continuously for tens of thousands of years, be precisely dated, and record a wide range of climate variables through their chemistry. In the last quarter century, numerous studies have focused on (sub)tropical hydroclimate variability, particularly from South Asia, the Maritime Continent, and northern Australia. This talk will discuss how stalagmite paleoclimate research is conducted and what important findings have resulted from this work. more »« less
Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some to increase, others to decrease, and many to shift their distributions. There have been several important advances in understanding the role of climate and climate change on wildlife and human infectious disease dynamics over the past several years. This essay examines 3 major areas of advancement, which include improvements to mechanistic disease models, investigations into the importance of climate variability to disease dynamics, and understanding the consequences of thermal mismatches between host and parasites. Applying the new information derived from these advances to climate–disease models and addressing the pressing knowledge gaps that we identify should improve the capacity to predict how climate change will affect disease risk for both wildlife and humans.
Perkins, David R.; Timm, Kristin; Myers, Teresa; Maibach, Edward
(, Weather, Climate, and Society)
Abstract Broadcast meteorologists—highly skilled professionals who work at the intersection between climate scientists and the public—have considerable opportunity to educate their viewers about the local impacts of global climate change. Prior research has shown that, within the broadcast meteorology community, views of climate change have evolved rapidly over the past decade. Here, using data from three census surveys of U.S. broadcast meteorologists conducted annually between 2015 and 2017, is a comprehensive analysis of broadcast meteorologists’ views about climate change. Specifically, this research describes weathercasters’ beliefs about climate change and certainty in those beliefs, perceived causes of climate change, perceived scientific consensus and interest in learning more about climate change, belief that climate change is occurring (and the certainty of that belief), belief that climate change is human caused, perceptions of any local impacts of climate change, and perceptions of the solvability of climate change. Today’s weathercaster community appears to be sharing the same viewpoints and outlooks as most climate scientists—in particular, that climate change is already affecting the United States and that present-day trends are largely a result of human activity.
Loranty, Michael M.; Alexander, Heather D.; Kropp, Heather; Talucci, Anna C.; Webb, Elizabeth E.
(, Frontiers in Climate)
Climate warming is altering the persistence, timing, and distribution of permafrost and snow cover across the terrestrial northern hemisphere. These cryospheric changes have numerous consequences, not least of which are positive climate feedbacks associated with lowered albedo related to declining snow cover, and greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost thaw. Given the large land areas affected, these feedbacks have the potential to impact climate on a global scale. Understanding the magnitudes and rates of changes in permafrost and snow cover is therefore integral for process understanding and quantification of climate change. However, while permafrost and snow cover are largely controlled by climate, their distributions and climate impacts are influenced by numerous interrelated ecosystem processes that also respond to climate and are highly heterogeneous in space and time. In this perspective we highlight ongoing and emerging changes in ecosystem processes that mediate how permafrost and snow cover interact with climate. We focus on larch forests in northeastern Siberia, which are expansive, ecologically unique, and studied less than other Arctic and subarctic regions. Emerging fire regime changes coupled with high ground ice have the potential to foster rapid regional changes in vegetation and permafrost thaw, with important climate feedback implications.
Abstract Seasonal climate forecasts have socioeconomic value, and the quality of the forecasts is important to various societal applications. Here we evaluate seasonal forecasts of three climate variables, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), temperature, and precipitation, from operational dynamical models over the major cropland areas of South America; analyze their predictability from global and local circulation patterns, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and attribute the source of prediction errors. We show that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model has the highest quality among the models evaluated. Forecasts of VPD and temperature have better agreement with observations (average Pearson correlation of 0.65 and 0.70, respectively, among all months for 1-month-lead predictions from the ECMWF) than those of precipitation (0.40). Forecasts degrade with increasing lead times, and the degradation is due to the following reasons: 1) the failure of capturing local circulation patterns and capturing the linkages between the patterns and local climate; and 2) the overestimation of ENSO’s influence on regions not affected by ENSO. For regions affected by ENSO, forecasts of the three climate variables as well as their extremes are well predicted up to 6 months ahead, providing valuable lead time for risk preparedness and management. The results provide useful information for further development of dynamical models and for those who use seasonal climate forecasts for planning and management. Significance Statement Seasonal climate forecasts have socioeconomic value, and the quality of the forecasts is important to their applications. This study evaluated the quality of monthly forecasts of three important climate variables that are critical to agricultural management, risk assessment, and natural hazards warning. The findings provide useful information for those who use seasonal climate forecasts for planning and management. This study also analyzed the predictability of the climate variables and the attribution of prediction errors and thus provides insights for understanding models’ varying performance and for future improvement of seasonal climate forecasts from dynamical models.
Probst, Charlotte M.; Ralston, Joel; Bentley, Ian
(, Journal of Avian Biology)
Nord, Andreas; Nilsson, Janake
(Ed.)
Bird bills possess an important thermoregulatory function as they are a site for environmental heat exchange. Previous studies have demonstrated that birds in warmer climates have larger bills than those living in colder climates, as larger bills can dissipate more heat. Because this dry heat transfer does not incur water loss, it may be additionally advantageous in water‐restricted habitats. Here, we examine the influence of climate on bill morphology inToxostomathrashers, a group of 10 North American species that varied in bill morphology and occupied climate niche, with several species inhabiting arid climates. Past examinations of thrasher bill morphology have only considered foraging, leaving unanswered the role of climate in morphological divergence within this group. We photographed 476Toxostomamuseum specimens encompassing all 10 species and calculated bill measurements from the photos using a MATLAB‐based program. For each species, we calculated occupied climate niche using data from WorldClim describing temperature and precipitation. We found no reliable significant relationships between climate variables and bill morphology across species, suggesting that other factors such as foraging behavior may be more important in shaping bill morphology in this genus. Within species, we found threeToxostomaspecies have significant relationships between bill morphology and climate that follow Allen's rule. However, we also found the relationships between climate and bill morphology varied in strength and direction across species. Notably, we found a negative relationship between maximum temperature of the hottest month and bill surface area in LeConte's thrasher, which occupies the hottest and most arid climates of the thrashers. This adds to the evidence that Allen's rule may reverse in extremely hot climates when the bill may become a heat sink instead of a heat radiator. These results demonstrate the importance of considering the generality of ecogeographical rules across lineages that occupy extreme climates.
Denniston, R.
"Stalagmites as Records of Tropical Climate Change". Country unknown/Code not available: Circolo Speleologico Romano. https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10614577.
@article{osti_10614577,
place = {Country unknown/Code not available},
title = {Stalagmites as Records of Tropical Climate Change},
url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10614577},
abstractNote = {Stalagmites are excellent archives of past climate change. They can grow continuously for tens of thousands of years, be precisely dated, and record a wide range of climate variables through their chemistry. In the last quarter century, numerous studies have focused on (sub)tropical hydroclimate variability, particularly from South Asia, the Maritime Continent, and northern Australia. This talk will discuss how stalagmite paleoclimate research is conducted and what important findings have resulted from this work.},
journal = {},
publisher = {Circolo Speleologico Romano},
author = {Denniston, R},
}
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