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Abstract Despite the revolutionary impact of immune checkpoint inhibition on cancer therapy, the lack of response in a subset of patients, as well as the emergence of resistance, remain significant challenges. Here we explore the theoretical consequences of the existence of multiple states of immune cell exhaustion on response to checkpoint inhibition therapy. In particular, we consider the emerging understanding that T cells can exist in various states: fully functioning cytotoxic cells, reversibly exhausted cells with minimal cytotoxicity, and terminally exhausted cells. We hypothesize that inflammation augmented by drug activity triggers transitions between these phenotypes, which can lead to non-genetic resistance to checkpoint inhibitors. We introduce a conceptual mathematical model, coupled with a standard 2-compartment pharmacometric (PK) model, that incorporates these mechanisms. Simulations of the model reveal that, within this framework, the emergence of resistance to checkpoint inhibitors can be mitigated through altering the dose and the frequency of administration. Our analysis also reveals that standard PK metrics do not correlate with treatment outcome. However, we do find that levels of inflammation that we assume trigger the transition from the reversibly to terminally exhausted states play a critical role in therapeutic outcome. A simulation of a population that has different values of this transition threshold reveals that while the standard high-dose, low-frequency dosing strategy can be an effective therapeutic design for some, it is likely to fail a significant fraction of the population. Conversely, a metronomic-like strategy that distributes a fixed amount of drug over many doses given close together is predicted to be effective across the entire simulated population, even at a relatively low cumulative drug dose. We also demonstrate that these predictions hold if the transitions between different states of immune cell exhaustion are triggered by prolonged antigen exposure, an alternative mechanism that has been implicated in this process. Our theoretical analyses demonstrate the potential of mitigating resistance to checkpoint inhibitors via dose modulation.
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This content will become publicly available on July 2, 2026
Optimal dosing of anti-cancer treatment under drug-induced plasticity
While cancer has traditionally been considered a genetic disease, mounting evidence indicates an important role for non-genetic (epigenetic) mechanisms. Common anti-cancer drugs have recently been observed to induce the adoption of non-genetic drug-tolerant cell states, thereby accelerating the evolution of drug resistance. This confounds conventional high-dose treatment strategies aimed at maximal tumor reduction, since high doses can simultaneously promote non-genetic resistance. In this work, we study optimal dosing of anti-cancer treatment under drug-induced cell plasticity. We show that the optimal dosing strategy steers the tumor to a fixed equilibrium composition between sensitive and tolerant cells, while precisely balancing the trade-off between cell kill and tolerance induction. The optimal equilibrium strategy ranges from applying a low dose continuously to applying the maximum dose intermittently, depending on the dynamics of tolerance induction. We finally discuss how our approach can be integrated with in vitro data to derive patient-specific treatment insights.
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- PAR ID:
- 10615258
- Publisher / Repository:
- Arxiv
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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