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Abstract In this study, we investigate the effects caused by interplanetary (IP) shock impact angles on the subsequent grounddB/dtvariations during substorms. IP shock impact angles have been revealed as a major factor controlling the subsequent geomagnetic activity, meaning that shocks with small inclinations with the Sun‐Earth line are more likely to trigger higher geomagnetic activity resulting from nearly symmetric magnetospheric compressions. Such field variations are linked to the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which couple to artificial conductors on the ground leading to deleterious consequences. We use a sub‐set of a shock data base with 237 events observed in the solar wind at L1 upstream of the Earth, and large arrays of ground magnetometers at stations located in North America and Greenland. The spherical elementary current system methodology is applied to the geomagnetic field data, and field‐aligned‐like currents in the ionosphere are derived. Then, such currents are inverted back to the ground anddB/dtvariations are computed. Geographic maps are built with these field variations as a function of shock impact angles. The main findings of this investigation are: (a) typicaldB/dtvariations (5–10 nT/s) are caused by shocks with moderate inclinations; (b) the more frontal the shock impact, the more intense and the more spatially defined the ionospheric current amplitudes; and (c) nearly frontal shocks trigger more intensedB/dtvariations with larger equatorward latitudinal expansions. Therefore, the findings of this work provide new insights for GIC forecasting focusing on nearly frontal shock impacts on the magnetosphere.
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Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research
Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting.
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- PAR ID:
- 10615612
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- AGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003964
